US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Honest question: How does this compare to Influenza at this stage in the season? Is “regular” Influenza - the seasonal disease we typically track at this time of the year - also spiking?

Not minimizing COVID19 - at all. Terrified of it and concerned about the latest death tolls/infection rate. I’m social distancing and following all the protocols, etc. In other words, please don’t flame me. Simply curious.

The problem is that we just don’t know what with the Trump administration actively suppressing tests since January. There is no way the current Covid death toll is remotely accurate. I hope doctors are saving blood samples.

Me too. Not to be morbid, but I’m also concerned with how the deceased are handled as the body counts increase. What agencies are coordinating standards that states will need guidance on?. There are so many areas needing public service expertise that the reduced Trump admin is simply unaware of because they removed anyone that gave a voice of dissenting opinion as a mission to undermine the presidency.

I posted a few days ago that my parents work at a funeral home; yes, covid bodies and suspected covid bodies are handled differently. I do not know from where or when the orders came down; I presume national associations of funeral directors arrange these things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honest question: How does this compare to Influenza at this stage in the season? Is “regular” Influenza - the seasonal disease we typically track at this time of the year - also spiking?

Not minimizing COVID19 - at all. Terrified of it and concerned about the latest death tolls/infection rate. I’m social distancing and following all the protocols, etc. In other words, please don’t flame me. Simply curious.

Flu like illnesses are spiking - Here is the CDC’s state by state map of “influenza like illness” - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

Is it flu, covid, something else....who knows. Here’s an article about it all.

[Anonymous]

We passed China today. We now have 83,144 confirmed cases and 1,201 deaths. The curve is still steepening. I don't see how we can "open up" next week.


USA 83,144 +14,933 1,201 +174 (Last updated: March 26, 2020, 22:44 GMT)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We passed China today. We now have 83,144 confirmed cases and 1,201 deaths. The curve is still steepening. I don't see how we can "open up" next week.


USA 83,144 +14,933 1,201 +174 (Last updated: March 26, 2020, 22:44 GMT)

I believe don't believe China's numbers to be accurate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We passed China today. We now have 83,144 confirmed cases and 1,201 deaths. The curve is still steepening. I don't see how we can "open up" next week.


USA 83,144 +14,933 1,201 +174 (Last updated: March 26, 2020, 22:44 GMT)

I believe don't believe China's numbers to be accurate.

I’m not worried about theirs. Ours are catastrophic but we will be back to normal on Easter.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

The point is none of the data right now is reliable because we don’t know what is being counted and even if you do look at data available, nothing is close to as bad as what you’re projecting. Is there some particular reason why the US will fare as badly as you’re projecting other than you’re little formula? This isn’t some plug and play scenario.

We will see indeed.

Unfortunately, the growth rate went up this week, and we reached 1290 deaths today, one day ahead of my prediction for this. The growth rate slowed slightly in the last two days, perhaps reflecting the success of social distancing in the hardest hit states, but it's too soon to establish a trend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

The point is none of the data right now is reliable because we don’t know what is being counted and even if you do look at data available, nothing is close to as bad as what you’re projecting. Is there some particular reason why the US will fare as badly as you’re projecting other than you’re little formula? This isn’t some plug and play scenario.

We will see indeed.

Unfortunately, the growth rate went up this week, and we reached 1290 deaths today, one day ahead of my prediction for this. The growth rate slowed slightly in the last two days, perhaps reflecting the success of social distancing in the hardest hit states, but it's too soon to establish a trend.

When I made my prediction that we'd see 6,000 deaths by April 3, there were 246 dead. It took 71 days from January 15 to March 25 to reach 1000 dead. It took 2 days from March 25 to today, March 28, to reach our second thousand. We are actually on a worse path than I predicted.

Are you starting to see the terrifying power of exponential growth?

[Anonymous]

I'm starting to see people are lying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm starting to see people are lying.

What do you mean by this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.

We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Based on?

Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.

Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.

I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong.

Lol. Bookmarked.

“LOL” because people dying is just a joke to Trumpsters.

The overreaction is a bit humorous. This mayyyyyy end up being a slight uptick in deaths from a normal flu season. 99% of the deaths in Italy are from patients with one or multiple comorbidities. Many deaths from those are actually being attributed to CV. There is a difference between dying with CV and dying because of CV. I guess we shall see when it all shakes out.

Not a trumpster btw

I didn't base my estimate on anything to do with Italy. I based it on an exponential growth formula. Deaths have been growing by an average of about 25% a day for the last two weeks. That means deaths are quintupling every 7 days. On March 13, we had 49 total deaths. March 20 we had 256. So if the trend continues, we will have 1,250 dead by March 27 and 6,250 by April 3. It's really simple math, but it's counter intuitive because we tend to think linearly rather than exponentially. So unless something intervenes, the trend will continue.

The rate of growth will not stay the same. Take a cue from the other countries, many of whom have already come through the worst (Japan, SK). None of them kept growing exponentially because there were interventions. This is not a math equation. Human intervention is at work. Your projections will look wildly off the mark when all of the data is sorted.

First you say don't look at Italy, then you say look at South Korea and Japan. Last I checked, we weren't very much like those countries either.

First you say the data can't be trusted. Then based on nothing more than this lack of trustworthy data you make predictions about the data.

You are just making a bunch of assumptions, then assuming they must be right because... reasons.

Which is why I made a prediction that can be tested. Not based on math alone. But also based on what we are actually doing (and not doing) right now.

You'll see.

The point is none of the data right now is reliable because we don’t know what is being counted and even if you do look at data available, nothing is close to as bad as what you’re projecting. Is there some particular reason why the US will fare as badly as you’re projecting other than you’re little formula? This isn’t some plug and play scenario.

We will see indeed.

Unfortunately, the growth rate went up this week, and we reached 1290 deaths today, one day ahead of my prediction for this. The growth rate slowed slightly in the last two days, perhaps reflecting the success of social distancing in the hardest hit states, but it's too soon to establish a trend.

When I made my prediction that we'd see 6,000 deaths by April 3, there were 246 dead. It took 71 days from January 15 to March 25 to reach 1000 dead. It took 2 days from March 25 to today, March 28, to reach our second thousand. We are actually on a worse path than I predicted.

Are you starting to see the terrifying power of exponential growth?

You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

[Anonymous]

On March 2nd the FDA commissioner, Stephen Hahn told Congress that by end of the week they were going to perform 1 million tests for the coronavirus. That would be 1 million tests by March 7th. The TOTAL number of tests in the US as of now is under 400,000. Let that sink in. California with a population of 40 million has only managed 19,000 tests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP...no one is gloating. We are all terrified at the sheer malfeasance of this Administration and federal response.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:On March 2nd the FDA commissioner, Stephen Hahn told Congress that by end of the week they were going to perform 1 million tests for the coronavirus. That would be 1 million tests by March 7th. The TOTAL number of tests in the US as of now is under 400,000. Let that sink in. California with a population of 40 million has only managed 19,000 tests.

They also promised that website. They've missed a lot of promises.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP...no one is gloating. We are all terrified at the sheer malfeasance of this Administration and federal response.

Regrettably the data will not be more clear in 3 months. Because in 3-4 weeks we are going to start running out of reagent for Coronavirus tests. And you can bet your bottom dollar that Trump has done nothing to change this situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP. By the end of next week, we are on track to have over 10000 dead.

We don't have to wait 3 months to see catastrophe. It is here already.