How long till the economy collapses?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We actually need people to work in jobs that support communities and people (healthcare, construction, education, farming, architecture etc…) It’s been notoriously difficult to get people to go into those fields because they are perceived as too low paying. We don’t need more social media managers, finance portfolio managers, app developers, etc… - honestly, a recession, while painful and challenging, could be a realignment toward what society actually needs.

Great, let’s go back to a time when everyone toiled at jobs they hated, in jobs that broke down their bodies, and they worked for shitty corps that treated them like garbage. Coal Mining could make a comeback. Make America Miserable Again!

Ok, I mean that sounds great and all, but how are people to supposed to pay their $4000/mo mortgages on low paying jobs? Will the cost of housing and other goods go down with the salaries?
MAGA sucks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We actually need people to work in jobs that support communities and people (healthcare, construction, education, farming, architecture etc…) It’s been notoriously difficult to get people to go into those fields because they are perceived as too low paying. We don’t need more social media managers, finance portfolio managers, app developers, etc… - honestly, a recession, while painful and challenging, could be a realignment toward what society actually needs.

Great, let’s go back to a time when everyone toiled at jobs they hated, in jobs that broke down their bodies, and they worked for shitty corps that treated them like garbage. Coal Mining could make a comeback. Make America Miserable Again!

Ok, I mean that sounds great and all, but how are people to supposed to pay their $4000/mo mortgages on low paying jobs? Will the cost of housing and other goods go down with the salaries?
MAGA sucks.

We are going to see a massive wave of defaults, bankruptcies and forced sales. Guess who will be there to buy houses? Private equity firms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

Maybe the Great MAGA-ness.

[Anonymous]

Canada and Mexico will suffer greatly. We will as well , but their dependence on the US market is huge. A trade does not benefit them and if does not benefit us. Some of the independent reports I have seen about the impact of tariffs on Canada's GDP as early as 6 months is insane. I think the biggest damage though will be on a friendship level. You always want to maintain good friendship with your immediate neighbor even if they need more than you need them. Canada is just far from everyone else if they want to diversity. This really sucks.

The question that I really ask myself is whether there is a select group of people in this country who are set to be very big winners. This is a case where inside information can help you bet against the market and then you reap massive profits while everyone else is struggling. Unfortunately we will probably not know until months or even years later that some people where knowledgeable about the timing of all of this and took positions to enrich themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

The Great F*ckery

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fox and MAGA will soon have to deal with immense amounts of cognitive dissonance. WINNING!

They’ll blame Biden then when that doesn’t work Trump will blame Musk. You just know he’s the fall guy. He’s too autistic to see it.

[Anonymous]

The tariffs won't go into effect. It's another bluff and continues desire to endlessly be in the news. Either shortly after midnight the tariffs are postponed yet again or at some point this week we get another attention seeking headline that Canada and Mexico compromised on "something" and the tariffs are on pause again for some time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Canada and Mexico will suffer greatly. We will as well , but their dependence on the US market is huge. A trade does not benefit them and if does not benefit us. Some of the independent reports I have seen about the impact of tariffs on Canada's GDP as early as 6 months is insane. I think the biggest damage though will be on a friendship level. You always want to maintain good friendship with your immediate neighbor even if they need more than you need them. Canada is just far from everyone else if they want to diversity. This really sucks.

The question that I really ask myself is whether there is a select group of people in this country who are set to be very big winners. This is a case where inside information can help you bet against the market and then you reap massive profits while everyone else is struggling. Unfortunately we will probably not know until months or even years later that some people where knowledgeable about the timing of all of this and took positions to enrich themselves.

Even if a select group will be big winners, anyone that wants to “win big” while destroying their nation’s reputation is a psychopath.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The tariffs won't go into effect. It's another bluff and continues desire to endlessly be in the news. Either shortly after midnight the tariffs are postponed yet again or at some point this week we get another attention seeking headline that Canada and Mexico compromised on "something" and the tariffs are on pause again for some time.

I generally agree with you but am now 50/50 on this outcome, before I thought it was an 80% chance of delay/cancel. I think they are smoking their own supply now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The tariffs won't go into effect. It's another bluff and continues desire to endlessly be in the news. Either shortly after midnight the tariffs are postponed yet again or at some point this week we get another attention seeking headline that Canada and Mexico compromised on "something" and the tariffs are on pause again for some time.

I generally agree with you but am now 50/50 on this outcome, before I thought it was an 80% chance of delay/cancel. I think they are smoking their own supply now.

Tariffs are one of the few things Trump legitimately believes in. He's an idiot who has a childish bully's view of the world- trade deficits are bad to him because he thinks other countries are taking advantage of us. He literally doesn't understand that exporting less than you import isn't a problem. Anyway all that to say I think he's really going to follow through on this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

"The Great Oppression."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

One might say that it's a Four Year Plan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

One might say that it's a Four Year Plan.

Some may have to make sacrifices for the greater good. Those sacrifices may include some lives. As long as the Great Leap happens, it will be worth it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken. Maybe Great Leap Forward?

"The Great Oppression."

The Great American Shutdown