How long till the economy collapses?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

I imagine our leader is going to run his mouth about tariffs today or tomorrow. His announcements during his first term had an immediate effect on the markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Oh come now. It’s just Trump playing 4d chess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Oh come now. It’s just Trump playing 4d chess.

He truly believes this is going to create "prosperity". At CPAC he talked about the gilded age.

[Anonymous]

The gilded age was the 1920s and they didn't end so well?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hope YOUR economy collapses. You all couldn’t just be content with your bureaucratic, do-nothing, $140,000 a year jobs—which the rest of us had to pay for.

No, you had to use the bureaucratic state to push left-wing ideology on the country in ways that were unquestionably illegal. Remember when you guys got military members fired for not taking the vaccine? (“No one elected Elon!” Interesting, now what about Fauci?)

So I don’t really care that you’re going to have to sell your Arlington home and go back to whatever LCOL town you’re originally from and try to start a new career at age 51. Sorry, not sorry.

You sounds bitter. A loser? We have more than enough cash to last Trump.

That is the rant of a guy who could never succeed at life. He complains about this "tax dollars" (all $500 of them) going towards federal services but in reality he is dependent on them. He couldn't hack life without Uncle Sam. He is failing at life, scared of the next generation of Americans, and cries himself to sleep because he is losing.

PP please share what illustrious career you hold. I promise you, most of our economies are just fine; sounds like you are concerned about yours though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The gilded age was the 1920s and they didn't end so well?

It was actually the last few decades of the 1800's and first few of the 1900's. High tariffs, ultra rich, ultra poor. Gilded sounds like gold and he loves gold. He wants it back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2/3 of the economy is consumer spending. That's all you need to know. The shit hasn't hit the fan yet and people are ALREADY pulling back. This is all you need to know. When their paychecks stop, from mass layoffs, then they cash in their 401Ks if they have one. For the people who lose medicaid and SNAP, which are mostly WORKING PEOPLE WHO GET 1099s or are seasonal workers, they will be on church and local food lines. And this will look like 1930. Make no mistake, DOGE, mass firings WILL cause a pretty swift recession. And potentially a massive depression. Go take a trip to Newport and tour one of the Robber Barron's mansions. Some day, in the not too distant future, you will be touring Ira Rennert's mansion. This is how it ends folks. Oh, and the USA as the beacon on the hill, will be the laughing stock as they align with Putin while the EU fills the vacuum. Trump has driven everything he has ever touched into bankruptcy. The US will be no different. I'm thrilled that I have an EU passport, I wish I had gotten it before my kids were born. They don't have it. I can leave and probably will.

Good for you, PP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

Nasdaq is around 200 day moving average. I put in 5k for a short term trade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

[Anonymous]

Fox and MAGA will soon have to deal with immense amounts of cognitive dissonance. WINNING!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

Nasdaq is around 200 day moving average. I put in 5k for a short term trade.

I am shorting TSLA. The brand is toxic now, and the valuation ludicrous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit. But going to be rough. If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly. These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc. The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that. The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil". They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing. Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation. Funny how these things line up!

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now. Good times all around.

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines.

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008. Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next. Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing. The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America. And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.

I think it will be a depression vs recession.