CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are definitely not seeing a red curve here.. we are pumping up but at the speed of a blue line
and it is not as steep as the red. Yes, it is going up and we are FAR from the top but flattening
the curve does not mean fast and flat as you wished.

Part of the problem is that the effects vary pretty widely across the country. We both have family in areas that don't have many cases but everything is shut down and some have lost their jobs. They are bitter to say the least and aghast at how long this is going to take. BIL was kind of like, "why do I have to give up my livelihood to help NYC hospitals." I try to tell them that this will help other places from becoming like NY, but it does sometimes feel like we are asking a lot of sacrifice from those who can least afford it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

I’ve been trying to figure that out what the assumptions are for that data, as well. So the task force is looking at different models, and I’m not sure we have access to all of them. Birx did cite the University if Washington IHME report, which estimates 82,000.
* But if you look on the ranges in this IHME study, they are really ranges of the best-case scenarios.
* The assumption is the all states have strict social-distancing actions akin to a China and that they work. And we know not all states have adopted strong measures.
* it assumed the measures are in place through May.
* the 82,000 is by early August, so there is a cutoff there.

Another study by the Imperial College estimated 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. but with no controls.

Note that May will also be a bad month for many states, as peaks in hospital demand will vary for several reasons. Also, a later peak is not a bad thing, in my mind, if the curve is flatter.

It's hard to know without seeing all the models, but part of me thinks they are presenting worst-case to 1) scare everyone into sticking with the social distancing measures, and 2) make the administration look good when the number never gets that high.

[Anonymous]

The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

[Anonymous]

So....given that we’ve never made a Coronavirus vaccine before....how likely is it that we will make one that works?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So....given that we’ve never made a Coronavirus vaccine before....how likely is it that we will make one that works?

I’ve been wondering this too. I think the 12-18 month timeline is highly optimistic.

And PSA- do not watch I Am Legend right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So....given that we’ve never made a Coronavirus vaccine before....how likely is it that we will make one that works?

There was work on a SARS vaccine but it stopped when it was no longer needed. That doesn't mean it would have come to fruition, but we've worked on a coronavirus vaccine already.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

Because we’re not an autocracy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So....given that we’ve never made a Coronavirus vaccine before....how likely is it that we will make one that works?

There was work on a SARS vaccine but it stopped when it was no longer needed. That doesn't mean it would have come to fruition, but we've worked on a coronavirus vaccine already.

I don’t know much about the SARS outbreak, but what happened/why wasn’t a vaccine needed? How did it finally end? And why is this Coronavirus so different?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

Because we’re not an autocracy?

That's not what autocracy means.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So....given that we’ve never made a Coronavirus vaccine before....how likely is it that we will make one that works?

There was work on a SARS vaccine but it stopped when it was no longer needed. That doesn't mean it would have come to fruition, but we've worked on a coronavirus vaccine already.

I don’t know much about the SARS outbreak, but what happened/why wasn’t a vaccine needed? How did it finally end? And why is this Coronavirus so different?

SARS-1 (the original SARS not COVID-19) was much deadlier but was only contagious when the person felt sick so it was easier to control and isolate infectious people. The disease was isolated and burned out. COVID-19 has a lower mortality rate (But still a lot higher than flu) but is contagious while people feel fine. In many ways that makes it a lot worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else. And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans?

I’ve been trying to figure that out what the assumptions are for that data, as well. So the task force is looking at different models, and I’m not sure we have access to all of them. Birx did cite the University if Washington IHME report, which estimates 82,000.
* But if you look on the ranges in this IHME study, they are really ranges of the best-case scenarios.
* The assumption is the all states have strict social-distancing actions akin to a China and that they work. And we know not all states have adopted strong measures.
* it assumed the measures are in place through May.
* the 82,000 is by early August, so there is a cutoff there.

Another study by the Imperial College estimated 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. but with no controls.

Note that May will also be a bad month for many states, as peaks in hospital demand will vary for several reasons. Also, a later peak is not a bad thing, in my mind, if the curve is flatter.

It's hard to know without seeing all the models, but part of me thinks they are presenting worst-case to 1) scare everyone into sticking with the social distancing measures, and 2) make the administration look good when the number never gets that high.

This is 100% what is happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

Actually, most of the current models being used--especially the Washington U one that gets to about 82,000, still puts this behind the monthly influenza death rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

Actually, most of the current models being used--especially the Washington U one that gets to about 82,000, still puts this behind the monthly influenza death rate.

If that is so, then the monthly influenza death rate that you're using is incorrect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The 150,000 deaths figure is a fantasy scenario, assuming the entire country is under stay-home mitigation right now. It’s not.

+1

We just had 912 people die of this YESTERDAY. This thing is so much worse than the flu. Remember all the Swine Flu comparisons over the last few weeks? Well the swine flu killed 12,000 Americans over 12-18 months. COVID-19 killed 900 just yesterday! Why aren’t we forcing all states to lock down?

Actually, most of the current models being used--especially the Washington U one that gets to about 82,000, still puts this behind the monthly influenza death rate.

If that is so, then the monthly influenza death rate that you're using is incorrect.

+1
How many flu deaths per month in your model? This is spreading and killing much faster.