Reply to CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

Forum Index » Health and Medicine

Reply to "CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]So I’m reading that the task force is predicting 100-240k deaths as a best case scenario even with the measures in place. Per capita that is WAY worse than anywhere else.  And it sounds like April could be the worst month- so will we literally start seeing thousands die per day? I’m just trying to figure out how we get to that number. And presumably other places besides NYC and New Orleans? [/quote]

I’ve been trying to figure that out what the assumptions are for that data, as well. So the task force is looking at different models, and I’m not sure we have access to all of them. Birx did cite the University if Washington IHME report, which estimates 82,000.
* But if you look on the ranges in this IHME study, they are really ranges of the best-case scenarios.
* The assumption is the all states have strict social-distancing actions akin to a China and that they work. And we know not all states have adopted strong measures.
* it assumed the measures are in place through May.
* the 82,000 is by early August, so there is a cutoff there.

Another study by the Imperial College estimated 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. but with no controls.

Note that May will also be a bad month for many states, as peaks in hospital demand will vary for several reasons. Also, a later peak is not a bad thing, in my mind, if the curve is flatter.[/quote]

It's hard to know without seeing all the models, but part of me thinks they are presenting worst-case to 1) scare everyone into sticking with the social distancing measures, and 2) make the administration look good when the number never gets that high.[/quote]

This is 100% what is happening.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics