Would you take Tufts, Emory, Wash U over UVA?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So OP here (of the whole thread). What I learned is the following:

1. Premium for Wash U, Emory, or Tufts not worth it unless we can do it comfortably. It might be for smaller classes (which we actually like as evidenced by attendance at a local private for High School). But not unless we can do it comfortably. Likely not easy because other kid will likely go to private college (perhaps Ivy because she will ED and has grades, test scores, and ECs). How do I tell second kid not to ED Emory, Wash U, or Tufts when first one will ED an ivy? He will have to wait for EA UVA and he likely will get deferred. I suppose he could ED1 William and Mary and will likely get in.

2. For law school (I am a lawyer), I think it does make a difference where you go and undergraduate makes some difference but not fatal between UVA/William and Mary and the aforementioned privates (I just proved I am a lawyer by using aforementioned in a sentence).

Make sure you flame for my English on a message board because that is what we do on DC Urban Mom.

I won't flame you for your writing (although it's pretty bad for a lawyer), but I will flame you as someone who obviously has no experience in elite school admissions given how optimistic you are about you kids' acceptances to these schools. It's tougher than you think.

It's a message board girlfriend not a legal brief. I will send you some writing samples. The conclusions are based on both internal school counselors and paid outside counselors (yes we can afford a few hours for consultants but that is different from four years of tuition at $75,000).

NP -- If you ED an Ivy and you are only relying on good grades, test scores and EC's then your ED odds are not good -- you should assume that they are similar to the ED admission rate --i.e. 15%-25%. If you have a hook (URM, legacy, etc.) then your ED odds are much better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Nope. First of all, we’re not talking about graduate school in general, we are talking about law school specifically. Second, my point is that Yale has a much higher representation of Ivy League undergraduate in its law school than any other law school does, including other Ivy League law schools. I am certainly not saying that other Ivy League law schools do not have significant representation of Ivy League undergraduates.

The original poster on this point asserted that up to 50% of top law school students have undergraduate degree from the Ivy League. That is not true in the case of any law school other than Yale.

It's probably reasonably close at Harvard. They used to publish statistics of the number of kids from each undergraduate institution. Harvard was ~80 kids per class and there ~30 from YPS. The other ivies probably had 10-15 per class. In total, it could be about 40% of the class.

I wouldn't go to Tufts, Emory, or WUSTL over UVA for law school admission prospects though. The higher numbers of students from Ivies reflect test-taking aptitude and a larger percentage of students who want to go to a top law school. Law school admissions are largely GPA/LSAT driven and there are lots of students from public universities at the top law schools. There is a small GPA break for top schools, because a 3.8 at Harvard is considered more difficult than a 3.8 at Directional State, but between these schools any differences in how GPA is viewed will be pretty minor.

In short, the driving factors in this decision should be cost, size of school, location, and other cultural factors. Not law school admission prospects.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Nope. First of all, we’re not talking about graduate school in general, we are talking about law school specifically. Second, my point is that Yale has a much higher representation of Ivy League undergraduate in its law school than any other law school does, including other Ivy League law schools. I am certainly not saying that other Ivy League law schools do not have significant representation of Ivy League undergraduates.

The original poster on this point asserted that up to 50% of top law school students have undergraduate degree from the Ivy League. That is not true in the case of any law school other than Yale.

It's probably reasonably close at Harvard. They used to publish statistics of the number of kids from each undergraduate institution. Harvard was ~80 kids per class and there ~30 from YPS. The other ivies probably had 10-15 per class. In total, it could be about 40% of the class.

I wouldn't go to Tufts, Emory, or WUSTL over UVA for law school admission prospects though. The higher numbers of students from Ivies reflect test-taking aptitude and a larger percentage of students who want to go to a top law school. Law school admissions are largely GPA/LSAT driven and there are lots of students from public universities at the top law schools. There is a small GPA break for top schools, because a 3.8 at Harvard is considered more difficult than a 3.8 at Directional State, but between these schools any differences in how GPA is viewed will be pretty minor.

In short, the driving factors in this decision should be cost, size of school, location, and other cultural factors. Not law school admission prospects.

No, it probably isn't. According to its most recent on line profile, there are 173 undergrad schools represented among the 560 students in Harvard's 1L class. There are only 8 Ivy League schools. So we know at a minimum that 165 students are not Ivy League. I really doubt that 280 Harvard Law students are from the 8 Ivy League schools and the other 280 are from 165 different schools.

Harvard Law is nearly three times that size of Yale and has a much more diverse representation of undergrad schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Nope. First of all, we’re not talking about graduate school in general, we are talking about law school specifically. Second, my point is that Yale has a much higher representation of Ivy League undergraduate in its law school than any other law school does, including other Ivy League law schools. I am certainly not saying that other Ivy League law schools do not have significant representation of Ivy League undergraduates.

The original poster on this point asserted that up to 50% of top law school students have undergraduate degree from the Ivy League. That is not true in the case of any law school other than Yale.

It's probably reasonably close at Harvard. They used to publish statistics of the number of kids from each undergraduate institution. Harvard was ~80 kids per class and there ~30 from YPS. The other ivies probably had 10-15 per class. In total, it could be about 40% of the class.

I wouldn't go to Tufts, Emory, or WUSTL over UVA for law school admission prospects though. The higher numbers of students from Ivies reflect test-taking aptitude and a larger percentage of students who want to go to a top law school. Law school admissions are largely GPA/LSAT driven and there are lots of students from public universities at the top law schools. There is a small GPA break for top schools, because a 3.8 at Harvard is considered more difficult than a 3.8 at Directional State, but between these schools any differences in how GPA is viewed will be pretty minor.

In short, the driving factors in this decision should be cost, size of school, location, and other cultural factors. Not law school admission prospects.

No, it probably isn't. According to its most recent on line profile, there are 173 undergrad schools represented among the 560 students in Harvard's 1L class. There are only 8 Ivy League schools. So we know at a minimum that 165 students are not Ivy League. I really doubt that 280 Harvard Law students are from the 8 Ivy League schools and the other 280 are from 165 different schools.

Harvard Law is nearly three times that size of Yale and has a much more diverse representation of undergrad schools.

Harvard used to publish this data. This is outdated, but here are some statistics that have been preserved: https://talk.collegeconfidential.com/law-school/656128-which-schools-for-harvard-law.html About 44% of the school was from Ivies + Stanford. UVA does well, BTW, which isn’t something I dispute. (I was a NP with the above post.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Nope. First of all, we’re not talking about graduate school in general, we are talking about law school specifically. Second, my point is that Yale has a much higher representation of Ivy League undergraduate in its law school than any other law school does, including other Ivy League law schools. I am certainly not saying that other Ivy League law schools do not have significant representation of Ivy League undergraduates.

The original poster on this point asserted that up to 50% of top law school students have undergraduate degree from the Ivy League. That is not true in the case of any law school other than Yale.

It's probably reasonably close at Harvard. They used to publish statistics of the number of kids from each undergraduate institution. Harvard was ~80 kids per class and there ~30 from YPS. The other ivies probably had 10-15 per class. In total, it could be about 40% of the class.

I wouldn't go to Tufts, Emory, or WUSTL over UVA for law school admission prospects though. The higher numbers of students from Ivies reflect test-taking aptitude and a larger percentage of students who want to go to a top law school. Law school admissions are largely GPA/LSAT driven and there are lots of students from public universities at the top law schools. There is a small GPA break for top schools, because a 3.8 at Harvard is considered more difficult than a 3.8 at Directional State, but between these schools any differences in how GPA is viewed will be pretty minor.

In short, the driving factors in this decision should be cost, size of school, location, and other cultural factors. Not law school admission prospects.

No, it probably isn't. According to its most recent on line profile, there are 173 undergrad schools represented among the 560 students in Harvard's 1L class. There are only 8 Ivy League schools. So we know at a minimum that 165 students are not Ivy League. I really doubt that 280 Harvard Law students are from the 8 Ivy League schools and the other 280 are from 165 different schools.

Harvard Law is nearly three times that size of Yale and has a much more diverse representation of undergrad schools.

Harvard used to publish this data. This is outdated, but here are some statistics that have been preserved: https://talk.collegeconfidential.com/law-school/656128-which-schools-for-harvard-law.html About 44% of the school was from Ivies + Stanford. UVA does well, BTW, which isn’t something I dispute. (I was a NP with the above post.)

Interesting post, thank you, but yes it is outdated -- almost 15 years old. I mean, they say there were 120 undergrad schools represented then, but on Harvard's current website the number is 173. That's 53 more non-Ivy League schools. And yes, you're right about UVA being well represented, as I've said all along.

I'd be stunned if today's number was 44 percent Ivy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So OP here (of the whole thread). What I learned is the following:

1. Premium for Wash U, Emory, or Tufts not worth it unless we can do it comfortably. It might be for smaller classes (which we actually like as evidenced by attendance at a local private for High School). But not unless we can do it comfortably. Likely not easy because other kid will likely go to private college (perhaps Ivy because she will ED and has grades, test scores, and ECs). How do I tell second kid not to ED Emory, Wash U, or Tufts when first one will ED an ivy? He will have to wait for EA UVA and he likely will get deferred. I suppose he could ED1 William and Mary and will likely get in.

2. For law school (I am a lawyer), I think it does make a difference where you go and undergraduate makes some difference but not fatal between UVA/William and Mary and the aforementioned privates (I just proved I am a lawyer by using aforementioned in a sentence).

Make sure you flame for my English on a message board because that is what we do on DC Urban Mom.

I won't flame you for your writing (although it's pretty bad for a lawyer), but I will flame you as someone who obviously has no experience in elite school admissions given how optimistic you are about you kids' acceptances to these schools. It's tougher than you think.

It's a message board girlfriend not a legal brief. I will send you some writing samples. The conclusions are based on both internal school counselors and paid outside counselors (yes we can afford a few hours for consultants but that is different from four years of tuition at $75,000).

NP -- If you ED an Ivy and you are only relying on good grades, test scores and EC's then your ED odds are not good -- you should assume that they are similar to the ED admission rate --i.e. 15%-25%. If you have a hook (URM, legacy, etc.) then your ED odds are much better.

Yes sorry we have a hook as well. But still not guaranteed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So OP here (of the whole thread). What I learned is the following:

1. Premium for Wash U, Emory, or Tufts not worth it unless we can do it comfortably. It might be for smaller classes (which we actually like as evidenced by attendance at a local private for High School). But not unless we can do it comfortably. Likely not easy because other kid will likely go to private college (perhaps Ivy because she will ED and has grades, test scores, and ECs). How do I tell second kid not to ED Emory, Wash U, or Tufts when first one will ED an ivy? He will have to wait for EA UVA and he likely will get deferred. I suppose he could ED1 William and Mary and will likely get in.

2. For law school (I am a lawyer), I think it does make a difference where you go and undergraduate makes some difference but not fatal between UVA/William and Mary and the aforementioned privates (I just proved I am a lawyer by using aforementioned in a sentence).

Make sure you flame for my English on a message board because that is what we do on DC Urban Mom.

I won't flame you for your writing (although it's pretty bad for a lawyer), but I will flame you as someone who obviously has no experience in elite school admissions given how optimistic you are about you kids' acceptances to these schools. It's tougher than you think.

A classic DCUM line.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So OP here (of the whole thread). What I learned is the following:

1. Premium for Wash U, Emory, or Tufts not worth it unless we can do it comfortably. It might be for smaller classes (which we actually like as evidenced by attendance at a local private for High School). But not unless we can do it comfortably. Likely not easy because other kid will likely go to private college (perhaps Ivy because she will ED and has grades, test scores, and ECs). How do I tell second kid not to ED Emory, Wash U, or Tufts when first one will ED an ivy? He will have to wait for EA UVA and he likely will get deferred. I suppose he could ED1 William and Mary and will likely get in.

2. For law school (I am a lawyer), I think it does make a difference where you go and undergraduate makes some difference but not fatal between UVA/William and Mary and the aforementioned privates (I just proved I am a lawyer by using aforementioned in a sentence).

Make sure you flame for my English on a message board because that is what we do on DC Urban Mom.

Regarding a premium for Wash U, Emory, or Tufts over UVA or William and Mary, I think you are correct that it is probably not worth if law school is the target and you are paying close to list. My wife graduated from Columbia Law and my impression is that the representation was pretty top heavy there, but not as top heavy as the one from Yale. Top 10-12 type of schools were heavily represented, but diminishing in concentration after that. By the time you get to UVA Law, which is a super strong school ranked #8 in USNews, the mix of undergraduate schools is dramatically different, with UVA and William and Mary being the top schools for the most recent couple of years with 39 and 22 respectively (William and Mary is smaller). Ivy schools are a much lower percentage.

https://www.law.virginia.edu/admissions/class-2020-profile
https://www.law.virginia.edu/admissions/class-2021-profile

Your question about discouraging your kid from an ED applications when your other kid will ED an Ivy is a really difficult one, but with the astronomical expense of higher education, you need to focus and they need to focus on value.

[Anonymous]

What about this for your 2nd child?

1. EA UVA, ED1 W&M
2. If don't get into either, ED2 Tufts or Emory.
3. If don't get into any, widen options vastly for RD

Therefore still gets an ED option, but W&M comes first. Sometimes males fare a little better in ED2 because schools use it to gender balance and it's fewer athletic recruits.

[Anonymous]

OP here. Last two PP, excellent posts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What about this for your 2nd child?

1. EA UVA, ED1 W&M
2. If don't get into either, ED2 Tufts or Emory.
3. If don't get into any, widen options vastly for RD

Therefore still gets an ED option, but W&M comes first. Sometimes males fare a little better in ED2 because schools use it to gender balance and it's fewer athletic recruits.

EA UVA is harder than regular decision and the kid runs the risk of a flat out denial.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about this for your 2nd child?

1. EA UVA, ED1 W&M
2. If don't get into either, ED2 Tufts or Emory.
3. If don't get into any, widen options vastly for RD

Therefore still gets an ED option, but W&M comes first. Sometimes males fare a little better in ED2 because schools use it to gender balance and it's fewer athletic recruits.

EA UVA is harder than regular decision and the kid runs the risk of a flat out denial.

But if denied rather than deferred at EA, would likely be rejected regular.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What about this for your 2nd child?

1. EA UVA, ED1 W&M
2. If don't get into either, ED2 Tufts or Emory.
3. If don't get into any, widen options vastly for RD

Therefore still gets an ED option, but W&M comes first. Sometimes males fare a little better in ED2 because schools use it to gender balance and it's fewer athletic recruits.

EA UVA is harder than regular decision and the kid runs the risk of a flat out denial.

But if denied rather than deferred at EA, would likely be rejected regular.

IF OP's son wants to have a chance at UVA before ED2 binding commitment to private, he would have to do EA at UVA. The EA at UVA isn't objectively harder--but they do use deferred liberally. In many high schools with weighted grades kids have higher GPAs/more rigorous course loads after 1 semester of senior year than only after junior so there's advice to apply later since UVA cares about GPA in rigoroos courses more than anything else. UVA really likes to keep the accepted GPA of students high so they will defer on borderline cases to get 1 more semester of grades in.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:William and Mary is probably more similar in size and feel to Washington University, Tufts, and Emory if that is what he wants. UVA is great if he wants a larger school, different experience. Perhaps schools like Duke, Columbia, Princeton, etc. would provide more opportunities, but I'm not convinced your private alternatives will. Perhaps focus on that level as reach.

This kind of vague advice is why students fall for the “prestige” factor that may or may not matter for them personally.

It made sense to me. They were just saying any difference in prestige wouldn't make much difference between the schools mentioned. It might for schools like Duke and Columbia.

I agree giving up in-state tuition at UVA means DC got into a top 10 school. UNless DC qualifies for significant financial aid. Also, Tufts isn't as good as UVA or the others, they just happen to be just as selective but academics wise the others are better.

What about 11? Seriously though, where does the arbitrary line exist?

Good question. All anyone can really tell you is their opinion. If I had to pay close to full vs. in-state for UVA or W&M and objective was perhaps law school, I'd say I'd find it hard not to send them to Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, then probably Columbia, Duke, Brown, Dartmouth, Penn, perhaps Williams, Amherst, and maybe Rice. If you are talking science, it would clearly open up MIT and Caltech. Most of these are extremely tough admits. So that is about 14 or so tops. Many would add Chicago. I'd draw the line before Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Tufts, Emory, Wash U, etc. This is all based on my situation and if I was fortunate enough to have a kid with those options.

It is clear that HYPS etc. do have significantly higher representation at elite law schools than UVA or W&M. I recall seeing that about 25% of Yale law students are from Harvard and Yale, and remaining Ivy League plus Stanford take it to 50% plus. But you have to consider that they probably had stellar SATs and would also get stellar LSATs.

Your numbers are wrong, especially at Harvard which is a very large law school. Ivy League representation is way less than 50 percent.

This was the article I remember seeing on Yale. I don't know about Harvard, but I would still think Ivy representation is very high compared to undergraduate population.

https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2011/04/18/up-close-tracing-the-elite-law-cycle/

I have never seen Harvard put numbers on it. Just a list of institutions represented: https://hls.harvard.edu/dept/jdadmissions/apply-to-harvard-law-school/undergraduate-colleges/

Yale is in a league of its own. Also, your article is a little dated.

At least I'm offering real data points. Here is a more recent view of Yale Law enrollment by undergraduate institutions from 2015. Of the schools mentioned, Tufts had 1, Washington University had 7, Emory had 4, UVA had 6, and W&M had 3.

In comparison, Yale had 69, Harvard had 65, Princeton had 37, Columbia had 30, Brown had 22, Dartmouth 19, Amherst 18, Penn 17, Stanford 16, Berkeley 16, and Williams and Duke 13.

Forgot to add the link: http://bulletin.printer.yale.edu/pdffiles/law.pdf

So Yale Law is just one data point, but it is a benchmark for prestige in law and here is how this breaks down. Ivy League graduates comprise 41% of Yale Law enrollment. 4.5 Ivy graduates per 1,000 in undergraduate enrollment end up at Yale Law. If you compare this to UVA graduates, an Ivy graduate (adjusting for undergraduate enrollment) is over 12X as likely to end up at Yale Law. An Ivy graduate is 7.4X more likely than a WashU/Tufts/Emory graduate to end up at Yale Law. There is a lot of variation. A Yale grad is 34X more likely to end up at Yale Law than a UVA grad. A Cornell grad is only 1.6X as likely to end up at Yale Law. But the next lowest Ivy, Penn, is 5X as likely as a UVA grad. Of the three private schools mentioned by the OP, WashU is the clear leader. Its graduates are 2.5X as likely to end up at Yale Law as a UVA graduate. Emory does a bit better and Tufts is worse.

As someone mentioned, Yale Law is a special case, so take this with a grain of salt, but it is actual data and it probably does say something about elite law admissions.

Your calculation is wrong. You need the # of applicants to YLS per school to make that determination. You appeared to be using a wrong assumption based on the total undergraduate population.

No. A graduate of WashU is 2.5X as likely to end up at WashU as a UVA graduate based on the data available in the Yale Law bulletin. 7 Yale Law students from an undergraduate population of 7,540 for Wash U vs 6 Yale Law students from an undergraduate population of 16,331 for UVA.

You are getting at percentage of applicants admitted by school, which is a valid, but different point. There is no public data on the number of applicants by school, so that is unknowable.

I actually don't see the difference between Wash U and UVA as that significant. When you get Princeton, for instance, a Princeton graduate is 19X as likely to end up at Yale Law, and I definitely think that is significant given the desirability of Yale Law.

As I said earlier, the average WashU graduate taking the LSAT scored several points higher than the average UVA graduate. That likely has nothing to do with the quality of education and everything to do with the standardized test taking ability of the average LSAT taker from those schools. So a kid choosing between UVA an WashU would probably score the same on the LSAT regardless of where they decided to go. My opinion is that their choice between WashU and UVA would not make a significant difference in their admission odds at Yale Law. Going to Princeton (if they could get admitted) would make a difference.

You can't use the total undergraduate population to calculate admission rate. You must use the # of admitted divided by the # of applicants from that school.

Say, Washington U has 1000 students. 500 applied for YLS and 10 got in. That would be 2% admission rate. UVA has 2500 students. 100 applied for YLS and 10 got in. That would be a 10% admission rate. By your calculation, Washington U graduates would be 2.5 x likely to get in.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:William and Mary is probably more similar in size and feel to Washington University, Tufts, and Emory if that is what he wants. UVA is great if he wants a larger school, different experience. Perhaps schools like Duke, Columbia, Princeton, etc. would provide more opportunities, but I'm not convinced your private alternatives will. Perhaps focus on that level as reach.

This kind of vague advice is why students fall for the “prestige” factor that may or may not matter for them personally.

It made sense to me. They were just saying any difference in prestige wouldn't make much difference between the schools mentioned. It might for schools like Duke and Columbia.

I agree giving up in-state tuition at UVA means DC got into a top 10 school. UNless DC qualifies for significant financial aid. Also, Tufts isn't as good as UVA or the others, they just happen to be just as selective but academics wise the others are better.

What about 11? Seriously though, where does the arbitrary line exist?

Good question. All anyone can really tell you is their opinion. If I had to pay close to full vs. in-state for UVA or W&M and objective was perhaps law school, I'd say I'd find it hard not to send them to Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford, then probably Columbia, Duke, Brown, Dartmouth, Penn, perhaps Williams, Amherst, and maybe Rice. If you are talking science, it would clearly open up MIT and Caltech. Most of these are extremely tough admits. So that is about 14 or so tops. Many would add Chicago. I'd draw the line before Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Tufts, Emory, Wash U, etc. This is all based on my situation and if I was fortunate enough to have a kid with those options.

It is clear that HYPS etc. do have significantly higher representation at elite law schools than UVA or W&M. I recall seeing that about 25% of Yale law students are from Harvard and Yale, and remaining Ivy League plus Stanford take it to 50% plus. But you have to consider that they probably had stellar SATs and would also get stellar LSATs.

Your numbers are wrong, especially at Harvard which is a very large law school. Ivy League representation is way less than 50 percent.

This was the article I remember seeing on Yale. I don't know about Harvard, but I would still think Ivy representation is very high compared to undergraduate population.

https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2011/04/18/up-close-tracing-the-elite-law-cycle/

I have never seen Harvard put numbers on it. Just a list of institutions represented: https://hls.harvard.edu/dept/jdadmissions/apply-to-harvard-law-school/undergraduate-colleges/

Yale is in a league of its own. Also, your article is a little dated.

At least I'm offering real data points. Here is a more recent view of Yale Law enrollment by undergraduate institutions from 2015. Of the schools mentioned, Tufts had 1, Washington University had 7, Emory had 4, UVA had 6, and W&M had 3.

In comparison, Yale had 69, Harvard had 65, Princeton had 37, Columbia had 30, Brown had 22, Dartmouth 19, Amherst 18, Penn 17, Stanford 16, Berkeley 16, and Williams and Duke 13.

Forgot to add the link: http://bulletin.printer.yale.edu/pdffiles/law.pdf

So Yale Law is just one data point, but it is a benchmark for prestige in law and here is how this breaks down. Ivy League graduates comprise 41% of Yale Law enrollment. 4.5 Ivy graduates per 1,000 in undergraduate enrollment end up at Yale Law. If you compare this to UVA graduates, an Ivy graduate (adjusting for undergraduate enrollment) is over 12X as likely to end up at Yale Law. An Ivy graduate is 7.4X more likely than a WashU/Tufts/Emory graduate to end up at Yale Law. There is a lot of variation. A Yale grad is 34X more likely to end up at Yale Law than a UVA grad. A Cornell grad is only 1.6X as likely to end up at Yale Law. But the next lowest Ivy, Penn, is 5X as likely as a UVA grad. Of the three private schools mentioned by the OP, WashU is the clear leader. Its graduates are 2.5X as likely to end up at Yale Law as a UVA graduate. Emory does a bit better and Tufts is worse.

As someone mentioned, Yale Law is a special case, so take this with a grain of salt, but it is actual data and it probably does say something about elite law admissions.

Your calculation is wrong. You need the # of applicants to YLS per school to make that determination. You appeared to be using a wrong assumption based on the total undergraduate population.

No. A graduate of WashU is 2.5X as likely to end up at WashU as a UVA graduate based on the data available in the Yale Law bulletin. 7 Yale Law students from an undergraduate population of 7,540 for Wash U vs 6 Yale Law students from an undergraduate population of 16,331 for UVA.

You are getting at percentage of applicants admitted by school, which is a valid, but different point. There is no public data on the number of applicants by school, so that is unknowable.

I actually don't see the difference between Wash U and UVA as that significant. When you get Princeton, for instance, a Princeton graduate is 19X as likely to end up at Yale Law, and I definitely think that is significant given the desirability of Yale Law.

As I said earlier, the average WashU graduate taking the LSAT scored several points higher than the average UVA graduate. That likely has nothing to do with the quality of education and everything to do with the standardized test taking ability of the average LSAT taker from those schools. So a kid choosing between UVA an WashU would probably score the same on the LSAT regardless of where they decided to go. My opinion is that their choice between WashU and UVA would not make a significant difference in their admission odds at Yale Law. Going to Princeton (if they could get admitted) would make a difference.

You can't use the total undergraduate population to calculate admission rate. You must use the # of admitted divided by the # of applicants from that school.

Say, Washington U has 1000 students. 500 applied for YLS and 10 got in. That would be 2% admission rate. UVA has 2500 students. 100 applied for YLS and 10 got in. That would be a 10% admission rate. By your calculation, Washington U graduates would be 2.5 x likely to get in.

+1 PP makes a great case for basic statistics being a required class for everyone. Holy shit, I can't with the stupidity.