Exactly what are the reasons MCPS are going down the toilet and what areas will be hit hardest?

[Anonymous]

I don't know..my home has trippled in value and we have enjoyed raising our kids (now teens) here. I commute 5mins to work and dh has a short ride to metro. No regrets.

[Anonymous]

MCPS is declining. At any BOE meeting, it seems only one mission the school admin and BOE members care: the equity. No one talks about acadamic excellence any more. If certain groups are not doing well in school, let modify the assessment. If unqualified students are admitted to MS magnet, let the teachers adjust teaching method. The students of certain group disturb classroom or bully other students, let them sit down and talk things out. If certain students dont want or cannot pass test, let the teachers give them 50% credit. If MCPS graduates cannot pass placment test in Montgomery College, let Montgomery College allow them to take entry level classes instead of remedial classes. The next step, ask MC employers to hire the MCPS and graduates. They will also ask UMCP to take MC transfer students who have hardly learned any real skill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:MCPS is declining. At any BOE meeting, it seems only one mission the school admin and BOE members care: the equity. No one talks about acadamic excellence any more. If certain groups are not doing well in school, let modify the assessment. If unqualified students are admitted to MS magnet, let the teachers adjust teaching method. The students of certain group disturb classroom or bully other students, let them sit down and talk things out. If certain students dont want or cannot pass test, let the teachers give them 50% credit. If MCPS graduates cannot pass placment test in Montgomery College, let Montgomery College allow them to take entry level classes instead of remedial classes. The next step, ask MC employers to hire the MCPS and graduates. They will also ask UMCP to take MC transfer students who have hardly learned any real skill.

Who?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MCPS is declining. At any BOE meeting, it seems only one mission the school admin and BOE members care: the equity. No one talks about acadamic excellence any more. If certain groups are not doing well in school, let modify the assessment. If unqualified students are admitted to MS magnet, let the teachers adjust teaching method. The students of certain group disturb classroom or bully other students, let them sit down and talk things out. If certain students dont want or cannot pass test, let the teachers give them 50% credit. If MCPS graduates cannot pass placment test in Montgomery College, let Montgomery College allow them to take entry level classes instead of remedial classes. The next step, ask MC employers to hire the MCPS and graduates. They will also ask UMCP to take MC transfer students who have hardly learned any real skill.

Who?

Wow. That's a mouthful and downright incorrect. Also filled with grammar and spelling errors. Are you one of the "certain students" you're talking about?

[Anonymous]

Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

+1

excellent analysis

might look for a home in howard/AA county in the future

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

You live on a different planet. I wish MC was cheap. I have been waiting for prices to drop for 10 years but prices keep going up. Now we are totally priced out. I hope your crystal ball won’t fail you this time.

[Anonymous]

The problem is that the general track prepares students to enter UMD-CP underprepared for most technical or preprofessional majors. The availability of higher level tracks, in line with a student being well-prepared for UMD-CP engineering and CS tracks, is eroding. The few advanced tracks / magnet programs that remain are no longer awarded to the best prepared students, but instead preferentially to the students coming from historically under-represented groups or at least living in more diverse zip codes.

As a result, UMC and educated immigrant parents feel that the schools are no longer meeting THEIR needs. In fact, meeting the needs of UMC families or well-educated immigrant families within the public school system is continuously presented at BOE / redistricting meetings as unimportant, and perhaps even un-american or inconsistent with the overall goals of MCPS. There is a not-so-subtle message these families can either move or choose private schools because the goal of MCPS does not extend beyond meeting the state testing requirements.

In the meantime, no such message emanates either from HoCo or FCPS, where tracking well-prepared students starting in elementary school remains the norm.

[Anonymous]

There is tracking is MCPS in Elem. CES..that's not enough?

[Anonymous]

The analysis is more or less spot on, what are you disagreeing with?

There are three key areas in the DMV. Maryland is clearly falling behind DC and VA. DC for obvious reasons. VA is successfully pivoting to tech with Tyson's being the clear second place employment center outside of DCs Central Business District. Maryland and MC are trendlining down, with a progressive government stuck on achieving equity over growth

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

You live on a different planet. I wish MC was cheap. I have been waiting for prices to drop for 10 years but prices keep going up. Now we are totally priced out. I hope your crystal ball won’t fail you this time.

There are certainly some areas of MoCo that are not great, but there are other areas that are still pretty expensive. I looked at TP area, and that area is expensive for what it is. Even many homes in the RM cluster are not cheap. Then there are places like Kentlands.. not cheap. I see brand new TH/Condos being built in not so great school clusters, like the one near Shady Grove metro.. starting price is something like $700K. Same for TB metro development.

So yea, there are parts of MoCo that are not great, but to think that the whole of MoCo is declining... um... real estate prices in some of the areas aren't reflecting that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keep reading that MCPS are going down in flames in multiple posts. What exactly are the reasons, and what areas are likely to see their home values stunted as a result? Please use specific examples of why MCPS are going to crap and not some ambiguously defined score for schools posted on Zillow or redfin.

Probably because you are posting them. Do you have some sort of agenda?

[Anonymous]

MC is not in decline. This is imagined. It's just the victimhood ramblings of a small group who refuses to look at fact.

The schools deal with a raft of issues that didn't exist 20+ years ago; nevertheless, an excellent education can be had by any willing to put in any effort.

Most of the whinging centers on things like middle school magnet admissions where they recently instituted universal screening. This increased the applicant pool by a factor of five. It also made selection far more competitive. In the past, this was driven by parental recommendation which was easily gamed.

This same group of parents complains about changes like the use of cohort criteria in admissions. Ironically, these parents are the first to point out that there are good and bad schools which their children benefit from. However, when the county attempts to offset admissions to account for the differences which they're also well aware these guys go nuts. Bottom line is these parents pay hundreds of thousands more so their kids can get a better education than others, but resent that the county is acknowledging this and looking at student's potential.

Further, when I compare MCPS' magnet programs to VA's AAP, there is no contest. AAP is a joke. When the children of wealthy parents don't do well on an entrance test, they simply Huffman some quack to provide an outside opinion that their kid a genius and they get into APP despite mediocre CogAT scores etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is tracking is MCPS in Elem. CES..that's not enough?

There are roughly 700 CES seats for 12,000 4th graders.

[Anonymous]

Fair point^ - pp