Exactly what are the reasons MCPS are going down the toilet and what areas will be hit hardest?

[Anonymous]

There are people on here with a major axe to grind or have an agenda. The ones I love the most are the people who write the long novels, about how shitty MoCo is. You'd think we were in some type of 3rd world country. It's hilarious because some of this stuff is straight up lies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are people on here with a major axe to grind or have an agenda. The ones I love the most are the people who write the long novels, about how shitty MoCo is. You'd think we were in some type of 3rd world country. It's hilarious because some of this stuff is straight up lies.

I'm not even sure they live in MoCo. Never met a real person who espoused any of these wacky views.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

You live on a different planet. I wish MC was cheap. I have been waiting for prices to drop for 10 years but prices keep going up. Now we are totally priced out. I hope your crystal ball won’t fail you this time.

I know, right? Previous PP is delusional. I live in a new development in upcounty and every family moving in has children or are planning to have one. They came here for the schools and the community; and they spent at a minimum $650K for their house. But previous PP doesn't want to hear that because it goes against his/her agenda.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

Can you provide any citations for these claims? I remember someone making similar assertions a few months back about escalating poverty in my area, but when the poster was confronted with actual facts it was shown the FARMS rate had been in steady decline over the past decade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So now it is racial discrimation to try to undo racial discrimination?

Except it isn’t. It’s simply switching to systems that no longer guarantee a pipeline from certain ES to MS magnets.

Look we know that the lose of privilege can feel like injustice, so we are here for you to help you unpack your feelings and adjust to new ways that don’t revolve around you getting what you perceive you are entitled to. It won’t be easy, but we have faith that you can do it.

this is it in a nutshell

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

Can you provide any citations for these claims? I remember someone making similar assertions a few months back about escalating poverty in my area, but when the poster was confronted with actual facts it was shown the FARMS rate had been in steady decline over the past decade.

Previous PP is an alarmist who is trying to paint a bad picture of Montgomery County. Oh the schools! The horror! All these brown kids are getting into the MS magnets but what about my precious sweet Larla who has been taking prep classes since Kindergarten!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper.

Can you provide any citations for these claims? I remember someone making similar assertions a few months back about escalating poverty in my area, but when the poster was confronted with actual facts it was shown the FARMS rate had been in steady decline over the past decade.

Previous PP is an alarmist who is trying to paint a bad picture of Montgomery County. Oh the schools! The horror! All these brown kids are getting into the MS magnets but what about my precious sweet Larla who has been taking prep classes since Kindergarten!

It sounds a lot like a poster who was completely schooled on the MD school forum when another poster started citing data that contradicted their claims.

[Anonymous]

I know, right? Previous PP is delusional. I live in a new development in upcounty and every family moving in has children or are planning to have one. They came here for the schools and the community; and they spent at a minimum $650K for their house. But previous PP doesn't want to hear that because it goes against his/her agenda.

Why would anyone pay $650K for a home in Mo Co for their schools?

We've been out of the county for a year now, after spending all of lives in Mo Co (MCPS grad), and it was the best decision ever. We sold our home in Mo Co for $100K more and had a home built here for the same original price of our Mo Co home. Kids walk to their schools, which are on the same compound, and the academics are much more rigorous.

Mo Co (and MCPS) look shiny from afar, but they're like the woman who "Botoxes" to death. We really know what's hiding under that smooth skin - and it ain't pretty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I know, right? Previous PP is delusional. I live in a new development in upcounty and every family moving in has children or are planning to have one. They came here for the schools and the community; and they spent at a minimum $650K for their house. But previous PP doesn't want to hear that because it goes against his/her agenda.

Why would anyone pay $650K for a home in Mo Co for their schools?

We've been out of the county for a year now, after spending all of lives in Mo Co (MCPS grad), and it was the best decision ever. We sold our home in Mo Co for $100K more and had a home built here for the same original price of our Mo Co home. Kids walk to their schools, which are on the same compound, and the academics are much more rigorous.

Mo Co (and MCPS) look shiny from afar, but they're like the woman who "Botoxes" to death. We really know what's hiding under that smooth skin - and it ain't pretty.

The only thing propping up MoCo is the proximity to DC. Anne Arundel and Howard are much better bets

[Anonymous]

It sounds a lot like a poster who was completely schooled on the MD school forum when another poster started citing data that contradicted their claims.

Who schooled whom? Were people on the school forum fighting over data?

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/95386/2017.12.28_montgomery_county_finalized_6.pdf
Racial Inequities in Montgomery County
2011–15

doubtful the numbers have changed that much

Montgomery County, Maryland, faces a challenge in overcoming the racial and ethnic
inequities that are highlighted in the geographic divide between Council District 1,
home to Bethesda and Chevy Chase, and District 5, where Silver Spring and Takoma
Park are located. Though the residents of the District 1 exceed county averages
regardless of racial or ethnic group, residents of District 5, especially residents of color,
often are below county averages and were less likely to have graduated high school,
have enrolled in college, have a well-paying job, or own a home.

Figure 4 is interesting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I know, right? Previous PP is delusional. I live in a new development in upcounty and every family moving in has children or are planning to have one. They came here for the schools and the community; and they spent at a minimum $650K for their house. But previous PP doesn't want to hear that because it goes against his/her agenda.

Why would anyone pay $650K for a home in Mo Co for their schools?

We've been out of the county for a year now, after spending all of lives in Mo Co (MCPS grad), and it was the best decision ever. We sold our home in Mo Co for $100K more and had a home built here for the same original price of our Mo Co home. Kids walk to their schools, which are on the same compound, and the academics are much more rigorous.

Mo Co (and MCPS) look shiny from afar, but they're like the woman who "Botoxes" to death. We really know what's hiding under that smooth skin - and it ain't pretty.

The only thing propping up MoCo is the proximity to DC. Anne Arundel and Howard are much better bets

You'd be surprised at the hidden gems in Frederick, too!

[Anonymous]

*not the OP here*

So the question of "why" MCPS is failing has been answered to my satisfaction.

The second part of the question was which areas will be hardest hit. My projection is middle class areas which do not offer an easy commute in - so think exit 5-9 on 270. Cheaper areas upcounty that are less likely to be cut up in the redistricting since they are already diverse are better protected. Close in areas that are closer to DC will be ok, esp starter homes. $800k homes in Wootton, on the Eastern boundary? I would sell.
.

[Anonymous]

I've been really surprised at how many Indian American families are leaving the Wootton area now. The magnet discrimination deeply insulted this community. Our Chinese neighbors are all talking about moving to but are more on the fence. Academic discrimination against Asian Americans and Chinese in particular is so prevalent that they wonder whether it will just happen again wherever they move. There is a very rich Chinese community in Rockville with churches. activities and other things that make it sadder for them have to leave. In this particular area, this MCPS decision are having a sad impact on people who had planned to stay until their youngest graduated high school. Unlike Silver Spring where there are a ton of lessor known, more affordable private schools or Bethesda/Potomac where there are very expensive, elite private schools, the Wootton area is almost 100% public schools. MCPS short comings hit this area hard. There's a ripple effect that follows. When houses get cheaper in Wootton, then house prices go down in QO.

[Anonymous]

My sense is that a typical QO buyer pursues a very different American dream that a Wootton parent, hence the house prices are not really connected. I would expect more impact on Northern Churchill disrroct home values and the morr desirable parts of RM.

I wrote almost a year ago that the social justice warriors can grab for our schools, but they will never get our kids. Sadly, yet unsurprisingly, it appears to be the case.

Just hoping to hold on to the good teachers for as longas we remain here. The exodus at RM has already started; other schools are pending.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been really surprised at how many Indian American families are leaving the Wootton area now. The magnet discrimination deeply insulted this community. Our Chinese neighbors are all talking about moving to but are more on the fence. Academic discrimination against Asian Americans and Chinese in particular is so prevalent that they wonder whether it will just happen again wherever they move. There is a very rich Chinese community in Rockville with churches. activities and other things that make it sadder for them have to leave. In this particular area, this MCPS decision are having a sad impact on people who had planned to stay until their youngest graduated high school. Unlike Silver Spring where there are a ton of lessor known, more affordable private schools or Bethesda/Potomac where there are very expensive, elite private schools, the Wootton area is almost 100% public schools. MCPS short comings hit this area hard. There's a ripple effect that follows. When houses get cheaper in Wootton, then house prices go down in QO.

Hard to feel sad for the wealthy given the struggles this county’s poor face.