Reply to Exactly what are the reasons MCPS are going down the toilet and what areas will be hit hardest?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Pre- 2007 Montgomery County had two selling points - it was a blue state and MCPS had a great reputation. Now, VA is also a blue state and MCPS has a bad reputation or at least not a good one. The taxes with the federal deduction for local/state taxes were pretty much hidden until the recent tax code changes. Pre-2007 most people assumed that buying in Montgomery County was a good investment but that clearly was wrong. Montgomery County real estate has been flat while VA and DC have boomed surpassing 2007 levels while Montgomery County is just barely reaching those levels in some areas again.

The future doesn't look bright either. The county doesn't just have a revenue shortfall it is in a trend of revenues declining while expenses are climbing. Many of these expenses are debt service and human cap costs. The county can't decide to not pay on its debt service. As the county government and funded public services (MCPS, police, fire etc) are such a large % of the workforce cutting the human cap costs just creates another economic burden on the county. Large and small businesses can't survive in the county so there is little if any revenue from businesses. Right now the county is playing musical chairs with developers to get short term infusions of cash to cover shortfalls without any plans as to where funds will come from to pay for the infrastructure improvements that these developments will require.

Every section of the county is in deep trouble. The east is in particularly bad shape. Despite the handful of boosters on this site, the eastern side of the county is in economic peril. The poverty is growing at an alarming rate and of more concern a large % that technically lives above poverty and FARMS calculations is economically insecure. The wage growth for people in this area has not kept up with the increase in living costs, many are overextended in student loans and mortgage payments and one lost job in a two income family will mean economic disaster. The eastern side of the county was particularly hard hit during the last financial meltdown. There is a strong likelihood that when the next recession hits many people will be underwater on their mortgages.

The west is in just as much trouble. The wealth is concentrated here but those with the highest income also make up a large bubble of people on the cusp of retirement. This means sudden drops in taxable income. It also means more will start leaving for wherever they choose to retire or even buying second homes and changing their residency for tax purposes which is further loss. This also creates more inventory and quite often poorly maintained or not recently updated inventory. Younger potential residents who can spend 1M on a house are choosing to stay in DC or move to VA. The combination of fewer potential buyers and large, poorly maintained/updated inventory means lower property values.

Up county has a mix of problems experienced by the west and east. While everyone focused on the concentrated poverty in the east, up county is seeing the same surge. Areas that were low crime 20 years ago are now high crime. School performance is problematic. MCPS boundary decisions have hurt this area the most with plucking out the few UMC areas and making sure that they are zoned to poorer schools further away. The lack of jobs in Montgomery County has also hurt this area. You can commute to to DC/VA from the west or into DC from the east but up county is so much further out that it creates a huge commute problem.

[b]IF MCPS had stayed strong, all these factors would have been mitigated somewhat but with the schools as a reason to move here being gone, there simply isn't anything left other than its cheap and about to get much cheaper. 
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You live on a different planet. I wish MC was cheap. I have been waiting for prices to drop for 10 years but prices keep going up. Now we are totally priced out. I hope your crystal ball won’t fail you this time.[/quote]

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