Rebel forces advancing in Syria …

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

That's changing very quickly. The Russians are presently abandoning their air base and they've sent their ships out to sea. Lebanon has closed all but one border crossing with Syria and Israel is bombing all the supply routes that Iran uses to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Without Russian air power and Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, the Assad regime cannot survive. The Syrian Army is demoralized, poorly trained, and underpaid. It's just conscripts who would like to see tomorrow. Once Homs falls, they will have a few days at most to decide whether to try to defend Damascus or retreat to their natural power base on the coast. Turkey will be the power broker in most of Syria. Assad is done. But it's not at all clear what follows. Syria has only known dictatorships. Civil society doesn't exist. There are no mechanisms for a change in power in Syria besides brute force. And the "rebels" have so many different interests and benefactors that no one knows how it's all going to shake out. Add in what remains of ISIS and other jihadist groups and the likelihood for chaos is very high.

The velocity of this offensive has taken everyone by surprise.

I’m interested to see how that goes. Maybe there’s some equivalent to the collapse of the USSR? A power vacuum followed by years of chaos and corruption. Not that there isn’t plenty of corruption in Syria now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

That's changing very quickly. The Russians are presently abandoning their air base and they've sent their ships out to sea. Lebanon has closed all but one border crossing with Syria and Israel is bombing all the supply routes that Iran uses to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Without Russian air power and Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, the Assad regime cannot survive. The Syrian Army is demoralized, poorly trained, and underpaid. It's just conscripts who would like to see tomorrow. Once Homs falls, they will have a few days at most to decide whether to try to defend Damascus or retreat to their natural power base on the coast. Turkey will be the power broker in most of Syria. Assad is done. But it's not at all clear what follows. Syria has only known dictatorships. Civil society doesn't exist. There are no mechanisms for a change in power in Syria besides brute force. And the "rebels" have so many different interests and benefactors that no one knows how it's all going to shake out. Add in what remains of ISIS and other jihadist groups and the likelihood for chaos is very high.

The velocity of this offensive has taken everyone by surprise.

I’m interested to see how that goes. Maybe there’s some equivalent to the collapse of the USSR? A power vacuum followed by years of chaos and corruption. Not that there isn’t plenty of corruption in Syria now.

Most likely like Libya than USSR.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

That's changing very quickly. The Russians are presently abandoning their air base and they've sent their ships out to sea. Lebanon has closed all but one border crossing with Syria and Israel is bombing all the supply routes that Iran uses to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Without Russian air power and Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, the Assad regime cannot survive. The Syrian Army is demoralized, poorly trained, and underpaid. It's just conscripts who would like to see tomorrow. Once Homs falls, they will have a few days at most to decide whether to try to defend Damascus or retreat to their natural power base on the coast. Turkey will be the power broker in most of Syria. Assad is done. But it's not at all clear what follows. Syria has only known dictatorships. Civil society doesn't exist. There are no mechanisms for a change in power in Syria besides brute force. And the "rebels" have so many different interests and benefactors that no one knows how it's all going to shake out. Add in what remains of ISIS and other jihadist groups and the likelihood for chaos is very high.

The velocity of this offensive has taken everyone by surprise.

I’m interested to see how that goes. Maybe there’s some equivalent to the collapse of the USSR? A power vacuum followed by years of chaos and corruption. Not that there isn’t plenty of corruption in Syria now.

Russians are very docile. I don't think Syria compares. And Syria is not an empire like the Soviet Union was. But certainly just as corrupt.

We'll see what Jolani is all about soon. "Moderate Islamist" who fought against Americans in Iraq. Former al-Qaeda. But ultimately fought against ISIS and is seeking to be more technocratic. The US still has a $10 million bounty on his head, though I'd imagine that's going to disappear very quickly.

Things are moving very rapidly.

[Anonymous]

Where’s Assad going to run off to?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where’s Assad going to run off to?

his wife and kids fled to Russia apparently. he may go there if he leaves. I dont think he wants to end up in the hands of the rebels alive after what he did to Syrians

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where’s Assad going to run off to?

I was wondering that too. I thought maybe a gulf country but I don’t think he has any friends there being an Alawite. Russia makes sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where’s Assad going to run off to?

I was wondering that too. I thought maybe a gulf country but I don’t think he has any friends there being an Alawite. Russia makes sense.

It'd be Moscow or Tehran. And it will happen soon - hopefully. It will be a disaster for Syrians if he wants to make some bs last stand. Then he gets the Gaddafi treatment and a lot more people will die.

[Anonymous]

biden's got this

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

That's changing very quickly. The Russians are presently abandoning their air base and they've sent their ships out to sea. Lebanon has closed all but one border crossing with Syria and Israel is bombing all the supply routes that Iran uses to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Without Russian air power and Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, the Assad regime cannot survive. The Syrian Army is demoralized, poorly trained, and underpaid. It's just conscripts who would like to see tomorrow. Once Homs falls, they will have a few days at most to decide whether to try to defend Damascus or retreat to their natural power base on the coast. Turkey will be the power broker in most of Syria. Assad is done. But it's not at all clear what follows. Syria has only known dictatorships. Civil society doesn't exist. There are no mechanisms for a change in power in Syria besides brute force. And the "rebels" have so many different interests and benefactors that no one knows how it's all going to shake out. Add in what remains of ISIS and other jihadist groups and the likelihood for chaos is very high.

The velocity of this offensive has taken everyone by surprise.

I’m interested to see how that goes. Maybe there’s some equivalent to the collapse of the USSR? A power vacuum followed by years of chaos and corruption. Not that there isn’t plenty of corruption in Syria now.

Israel was benefiting a lot of from that corruption. They were heavily involved in the oil smuggling. It is counterproductive because some of that is Iran oil but money finds way.

[Anonymous]

Trump is always looking out for his bff Putin

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump is always looking out for his bff Putin

Does the country have the appetite to get involved in a war in Syria?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump is always looking out for his bff Putin

Does the country have the appetite to get involved in a war in Syria?

No, but I think we are supporting Kurds in Syria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump is always looking out for his bff Putin

Does the country have the appetite to get involved in a war in Syria?

No, which is why this offensive was timed to happen before Trump could take office. The letter agencies had to get this rolling before he could stop them. Trump was unlikely to start any new wars, so they are gifting him this one to deal with.

[Anonymous]

We are not going to war in Syria. We pulled out of Afghanistan. We don't need oil anymore for one thing. What is our interest there?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump is always looking out for his bff Putin

Does the country have the appetite to get involved in a war in Syria?

No, which is why this offensive was timed to happen before Trump could take office. The letter agencies had to get this rolling before he could stop them. Trump was unlikely to start any new wars, so they are gifting him this one to deal with.

The timing might be more to do with Iran being busy with Israel and Russia with Ukraine more than Trump.