MS Capitol Hill

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.

Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?

You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.

Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.

Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.

This is not true anymore.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.

Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?

You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.

Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.

Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.

Okay, but a lot of those kids who got in somewhere else they ranked higher also had a sibling somewhere else and that's why they got in there. I don't know if it's even possible to calculate the odds taking account of sibling status at all schools. But I see a lot of people in my circle (Bloomingdale/Brookland) striking out for 5th and 6th.

ITDS is not that great academically, and I say that as an ITDS middle school parent.

[Anonymous]

Latin in particular is incredibly hard to luck into. It briefly looked like the Cooper campus would reduce some of the pressure but I actually think it's had the opposite impact and parents on the east side who previously felt the original latin campus was too far away are all flowing to Cooper.

We are a family that doesn't want BASIS because it's just not a good fit (not for our family or our specific kid) and we will be lotterying for both Latins and ITDS but if we don't get in (which is likely) we will do SH for 6th and see how it goes. We have a plan in place for moving if it just does not work (which we will be using for HS if we don't use it for middle school anyway so we are moving eventually no matter what it's just a question of when).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latin in particular is incredibly hard to luck into. It briefly looked like the Cooper campus would reduce some of the pressure but I actually think it's had the opposite impact and parents on the east side who previously felt the original latin campus was too far away are all flowing to Cooper.

We are a family that doesn't want BASIS because it's just not a good fit (not for our family or our specific kid) and we will be lotterying for both Latins and ITDS but if we don't get in (which is likely) we will do SH for 6th and see how it goes. We have a plan in place for moving if it just does not work (which we will be using for HS if we don't use it for middle school anyway so we are moving eventually no matter what it's just a question of when).

It did relieve the pressure in the east side, for two years. Now there's really not a noticeable difference because it draws from such a wide area. It was stunning how quickly that transition happened. But I will say, it's 96 new "quality seats" in the system where there used to be zero, and that's something.

[Anonymous]

My kid got shut out of Latins and Basis three years ago. So yeah, it hasn't been a reliable option in years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid got shut out of Latins and Basis three years ago. So yeah, it hasn't been a reliable option in years.

Yup. Really anyone with a below-average lottery number doesn't have any chance at Latins, and it would be iffy for BASIS.

I think a big part of the problem is Two Rivers and CMI middle schools being so bad. There are so many kids at ITDS from those schools!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.

Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?

You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.

Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.

Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.

Okay, but a lot of those kids who got in somewhere else they ranked higher also had a sibling somewhere else and that's why they got in there. I don't know if it's even possible to calculate the odds taking account of sibling status at all schools. But I see a lot of people in my circle (Bloomingdale/Brookland) striking out for 5th and 6th.

ITDS is not that great academically, and I say that as an ITDS middle school parent.

This part. The true odds can't be calculated, especially as most parents who have sibling preference still list other schools just in case, even if it's not logical.

By our own capitol hill school 4th grade parent reported lottery outcomes with many/most applying for Basis and the Latins (including some who applied in the lottery for the heck of it even knowing they had other plans like private or moving), highly doubt odds are over 25-30% without sibling preference and I'm being generous.

Anyone else who can speak from actual experience - what percent of your 4th grade Capitol Hill ES class actually made it into one of those schools (and didn't have sibling preference)?

[Anonymous]

My DD didn't get into Latins or BASIS when she was in 4th, in spring 2023. Her number was in the 30th percentile of all numbers, and though she got pretty far on the BASIS list, it wasn't enough. I do think she might have gotten in if they were willing to make offers after the first day of school, but I guess that's just soooooo haaaaaaard.

[Anonymous]

Anyone else who can speak from actual experience - what percent of your 4th grade Capitol Hill ES class actually made it into one of those schools (and didn't have sibling preference)?

This answer is a moving target, isn’t it? The higher the odds, the more kids stay to lottery, and the more kids who stay to lottery, the lower the odds.

[Anonymous]

You can look at enrollment pathways for kids in Capitol Hill elementary schools between 4th grade and 5th grade. It gives you an idea, but still doesn't show how sibling preference influences those pathways. This is also data from 2021-2022 and it seems like it's gotten even more competitive to get into the Latins or Basis since then?

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My DD didn't get into Latins or BASIS when she was in 4th, in spring 2023. Her number was in the 30th percentile of all numbers, and though she got pretty far on the BASIS list, it wasn't enough. I do think she might have gotten in if they were willing to make offers after the first day of school, but I guess that's just soooooo haaaaaaard.

BASIS did make offers after the beginning of the school year in 2023.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You can look at enrollment pathways for kids in Capitol Hill elementary schools between 4th grade and 5th grade. It gives you an idea, but still doesn't show how sibling preference influences those pathways. This is also data from 2021-2022 and it seems like it's gotten even more competitive to get into the Latins or Basis since then?

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

It's much, much harder to get into Latin Cooper. I'm not sure it's harder to get into BASIS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DD didn't get into Latins or BASIS when she was in 4th, in spring 2023. Her number was in the 30th percentile of all numbers, and though she got pretty far on the BASIS list, it wasn't enough. I do think she might have gotten in if they were willing to make offers after the first day of school, but I guess that's just soooooo haaaaaaard.

BASIS did make offers after the beginning of the school year in 2023.

Oh huh, my mistake. I assumed changes in her number were due to people getting off the list. Anyway, in that particular year, 30th percentile just wasn't good enough. But I do think in most years you can get into BASIS with an average lottery number. Just not a number well below average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You can look at enrollment pathways for kids in Capitol Hill elementary schools between 4th grade and 5th grade. It gives you an idea, but still doesn't show how sibling preference influences those pathways. This is also data from 2021-2022 and it seems like it's gotten even more competitive to get into the Latins or Basis since then?

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

It's much, much harder to get into Latin Cooper. I'm not sure it's harder to get into BASIS.

Taking a couple examples:

Brent:
Out of at least 71 4th graders in 2021-2022 (can't tell exactly how many there were from this chart):
-13 went to Latin PCS
-11 went to Latin Cooper
-10 went to Basis

Presumably some of these had sibling preference so odds are lower than they seem, plus this was a few years ago so odds are even worse now.

I tried to pull Maury numbers but it was <10 4th graders for each individual school (Latin PCS, Cooper, or Basis) so can't really calculate