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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble. [/quote]

Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?[/quote]

You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.[/quote]

Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches. [/quote]

Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.[/quote]

[b]Okay, but a lot of those kids who got in somewhere else they ranked higher also had a sibling somewhere else and that's why they got in there. I don't know if it's even possible to calculate the odds taking account of sibling status at all schools. [/b]But I see a lot of people in my circle (Bloomingdale/Brookland) striking out for 5th and 6th.

ITDS is not that great academically, and I say that as an ITDS middle school parent.[/quote]

This part. The true odds can't be calculated, especially as most parents who have sibling preference still list other schools just in case, even if it's not logical.

By our own capitol hill school 4th grade parent reported lottery outcomes with many/most applying for Basis and the Latins (including some who applied in the lottery for the heck of it even knowing they had other plans like private or moving), highly doubt odds are over 25-30% without sibling preference and I'm being generous.

Anyone else who can speak from actual experience - what percent of your 4th grade Capitol Hill ES class actually made it into one of those schools (and didn't have sibling preference)?[/quote]

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