2020 vs 2024 Presidential Election Polls

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one under 65 in their right mind is answering political polls.

This is the right answer.

Democrats outperform when abortion is on the ballot. And it’s going to be on the ballot in 2024.

A good antecedent for 2024 will be the 2004 election, when Karl Rove’s insidiously put same-sex marriage on the ballot in a dozen states. Voters turned out in mass to vote AGAINST same-sex marriage and then voted for GWB’s reelection in spite of his administration’s massive failure on 9/11 and invasion of Iraq (which already showed signs of going badly). The same thing is going to happen in 2024 - abortion rights referenda will be on the ballot in at least half a dozen purple and red states (including Florida). It will create up-ballot and down-ballot victories for Democrats. It will force the GOP to spend money in otherwise “safe” red states and districts, playing defense instead of going on the offense to win swing areas.

Pollsters have a very hard time of getting samples right in the era of cell phones. The more predictive data for “who will win?” has been voter registration trends and early voting data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one under 65 in their right mind is answering political polls.

This is the right answer.

Democrats outperform when abortion is on the ballot. And it’s going to be on the ballot in 2024.

A good antecedent for 2024 will be the 2004 election, when Karl Rove’s insidiously put same-sex marriage on the ballot in a dozen states. Voters turned out in mass to vote AGAINST same-sex marriage and then voted for GWB’s reelection in spite of his administration’s massive failure on 9/11 and invasion of Iraq (which already showed signs of going badly). The same thing is going to happen in 2024 - abortion rights referenda will be on the ballot in at least half a dozen purple and red states (including Florida). It will create up-ballot and down-ballot victories for Democrats. It will force the GOP to spend money in otherwise “safe” red states and districts, playing defense instead of going on the offense to win swing areas.

Pollsters have a very hard time of getting samples right in the era of cell phones. The more predictive data for “who will win?” has been voter registration trends and early voting data.

+1

Everyone knows that skipping out on a poll will have absolutely no effect on their life whatsoever. But people will crawl over broken glass to cast a vote in the most important election in American history.

Polls do not equal votes.

[Anonymous]

Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

You are not unique. This is the conventional wisdom.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

Actually I think Biden would easily beat Nikki Haley because Trump would drag her down to prove that Republicans should have nominated him instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

Actually I think Biden would easily beat Nikki Haley because Trump would drag her down to prove that Republicans should have nominated him instead.

Haley means all of the democrats angry about Biden being the nominee stay home

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

Actually I think Biden would easily beat Nikki Haley because Trump would drag her down to prove that Republicans should have nominated him instead.

I agree that Trump would try to sink the republican nominee because he isn’t actually a republican and if he can’t win then he doesn’t want anyone else that “slighted” him to win. He really doesn’t care about the party.

However, I think there are actually enough independents and even moderate democrats that could put her over the line.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

Actually I think Biden would easily beat Nikki Haley because Trump would drag her down to prove that Republicans should have nominated him instead.

I agree that Trump would try to sink the republican nominee because he isn’t actually a republican and if he can’t win then he doesn’t want anyone else that “slighted” him to win. He really doesn’t care about the party.

However, I think there are actually enough independents and even moderate democrats that could put her over the line.

I think Biden wins among moderate democrats. I think progressives are the ones who will be fed up enough to stay home.

[Anonymous]

I’m reminded of a line in a recent NYT article about these recent polls: “ Americans increasingly seem to be using polls to vent, not to vote”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m reminded of a line in a recent NYT article about these recent polls: “ Americans increasingly seem to be using polls to vent, not to vote”.

Yeah it’s like complaining to your spouse about your boss vs. actually quitting your job when the only other option is working for minimum wage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

This is the hope of every deranged Republican. You guys want to forget that your party dispensed in a trice with fifty years of rights. You’re not winning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

Actually I think Biden would easily beat Nikki Haley because Trump would drag her down to prove that Republicans should have nominated him instead.

I agree that Trump would try to sink the republican nominee because he isn’t actually a republican and if he can’t win then he doesn’t want anyone else that “slighted” him to win. He really doesn’t care about the party.

However, I think there are actually enough independents and even moderate democrats that could put her over the line.

I think Biden wins among moderate democrats. I think progressives are the ones who will be fed up enough to stay home.

The loons like Susan Sarandon and Cornel West will stay home. But most progressives have seen what Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein has wrought and we don’t like it. Forward, however imperfectly, is better than backward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

This is the hope of every deranged Republican. You guys want to forget that your party dispensed in a trice with fifty years of rights. You’re not winning.

I think it’s very dangerous for us Dems to be as complacent as you sound. He’s already proven he can win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

This is the hope of every deranged Republican. You guys want to forget that your party dispensed in a trice with fifty years of rights. You’re not winning.

Yo dude…I am a Biden supporter (though would love for say Witmer to be the nominee).

Just trying to add some intelligent analysis to the discussion.

As the Intel guy said…only the paranoid survive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maybe I am unique, but the only reason I think Biden will probably win is because it may be against Trump.

If Nikki Haley manages to squeak out the nomination I think Biden is sunk.

Funny enough, only Desantis would be worse than Trump. He is unlikeable and provides zero entertainment value.

This is the hope of every deranged Republican. You guys want to forget that your party dispensed in a trice with fifty years of rights. You’re not winning.

I think it’s very dangerous for us Dems to be as complacent as you sound. He’s already proven he can win.

Dems won’t be complacent. The 2024 presidential election will have the highest turnout percentage of all time.