2020 vs 2024 Presidential Election Polls
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
|
Interesting to look at the polls from the 2020 election, when Biden was had double digit leads over Trump for most of the election cycle, including in October and November 2019, where he was shown leading Trump by as many as 13-17% in some polls.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls With the same amount of time to go in the 2024 election, Trump is now consistently leading Biden in almost every poll taken in the past month. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html#polls When you take Trump’s history of always outperforming the polls in the 2016 and 2020 elections, why are so many Dems on here so sure Biden can win? Trump is polling around 15 points higher this election cycle. I don’t see why any rationale person wouldn’t be extremely worried. |
Anonymous
| I can think of 91 reasons Biden can win...coming soon to a courtroom near you. |
Anonymous
You know that’s only going to make Trump more popular, right? You have too much faith in people it seems… |
Anonymous
|
I'm not a Democrat. I'm a former Reagan republican that is now considered a RINO in the GOP, so I am now a registered Independent because the GOP has discarded us and left us behind.
I am pretty sure that Biden will win. Polling in the MAGA era is notoriously poorly predictive. The polling models are not very good about getting out to a good cross-section of people. Polling models have a lot of inherent issues with trying to track and find people to poll. Now, with mobile technology, it is much harder for pollsters to get a hold of people and to get a good cross-section. The numbers are skewed by those people who they can find, those who answer unlisted or potentially spam numbers, and those who will take the time to answer polls. I was recently polled before this November election. I told the pollster up front that I had exactly 10 min. They said it would be enough. At 10 min, I was answering like question #15 and said I had to leave. He said just a few more. At 18 min, I asked how many more and he said if I didn't finish, he couldn't use my answers. I finally gave up at 20 min and just hung up and left 10 min late for my appointment. One big problem is that he read his script slowly and had to read every word of long questions. If I asked him to repeat on phrase or option, he had to go and read the entire question over. The questions took up about 80-90% of the time. My answers were usually brief. I also know that many pollsters still use landline phone numbers. Many people no longer have landlines and many (like us) who have landlines, almost never answer them. We have our landlines for external reasons, but the vast majority of calls that come on our landline are spam and so we only answer if caller ID tells us it is someone we know (like my mother, who prefers to call on the landline for some reason). So, pollsters need to figure out how to get better polling populations (e.g. cell phones or mobile devices) and how to make the polls more time considerate. Like if they called and gave me a poll number and I could go to a web-site and enter the polling number and then answer the polls, I'd be more likely to complete it. I can read significantly faster than this guy could read and speak and I could probably have finished the entire poll in under 5 minutes had it been an on-line poll. The use of polling numbers would prevent duplicate entries and add confirmation that the person contacted was the person completing the poll. But the current polling models are very flawed. One big issue is that due to the polling models, the polls probably skew significantly older and hence, likely more conservative. Last, as has been evident in every election since RvW was overturned, women and younger voters have turned out in greater and greater numbers to ensure that anything that touches on protecting reproductive rights is getting about 60% of the vote. Anytime it is left to the voters, they will vote to protect those rights. And that includes in candidates, like in the recent Virginia legislative votes and the Kentucky governors vote. In 2024, the Democratic party and Biden will be campaigning a lot on protecting reproductive rights and that will seal the deal. The GOP has no answer to voters who do NOT want anti-abortion laws and judges passed, by Congress or the presidency. I will bet that this single issue will be the tipping point and 2024 will be a very bad year for the GOP in general. |
Anonymous
| I'd read those results as saying that polls a year out aren't very predictive of the final results rather than assuming you can just tag 15 points onto any Trump poll. |
Anonymous
|
Many people who support Trump will never admit it even in an anonymous poll. So skew the Trump numbers up 8 or 10 points and that is where we are really at in the race.
Mean tweets vs low inflation Blustery speech vs energy independence via traditional fuel sources No wars vs everyone wants a proxy war with the US Obnoxious vs out of it Not really a choice is it. |
Anonymous
|
Thank you to the PP.
It will take the overwhelming votes of people like you and suburban independent women who want to be able to manage their own healthcare to ensure Trump stays out of office. |
Anonymous
|
Anonymous
More popular with his base, maybe. Independents and "RINOs" aren't buying that malarkey. |
Anonymous
|
Yeah honestly I don't know what to make of these polls. Obviously they aren't great! Biden being old isn't great! I happen to like Biden a lot but apparently people truly just don't *know* about what he's been doing.
But I just cannot believe that the majority of voters want four more years of Trump. I take some comfort in the better than expected wins for Dems in the elections we've had since 2020. But I'm a Democrat, which means I'm always in a state of panic anyway. These polls aren't helping. |
Anonymous
^ But also, yes, agree that polling a year out is worth next to nothing. |
Anonymous
It's just unfortunate that the majority of voters doesn't get a voice. This will come down to a few thousand people in swing states like Michigan and Georgia. |
Anonymous
| I don't trust the polling this time around for a few reasons. 1) the red wave that wasn't during the midterms. 2) Biden and Trump are both massively unpopular and no one wants to admit to supporting either. 3) democrats are winning on the abortion issue and Republicans can't put together a coherent message about what voters can expect from them wrt laws, so democrats are able to cast them as wanting to ban all abortion, and even contraception, and bizarrely, ability of women to travel from state to state. 4) many, many people have mental health issues coming out of covid and their choices are easily steered with fear mongering, name calling, etc. People with high levels of anxiety are prone to catastrophizing and messages about how Trump will literally execute people, however wild these ideas are, resonate with the portions of our population most prone to anxiety (go look at the demographics yourself and draw your own conclusions). |
Anonymous
Ninety one instances of election interference by the DNC. |
Anonymous
[citation needed] |