
A district court and one appellate judge on the three-member 4th Circuit panel agreed with the Coalition’s claims. If the case reaches the Supreme Court, the 4th Circuit decision stands a good chance of being reversed. Realistically, everyone involved in this litigation knew there would be multiple appeals. |
I took the fact that Heytens issued a separate concurring opinion and Rushing issued a strong dissent as an indication that each thought the chances of the Supreme Court granting cert were reasonably strong and were trying to frame the issues as they would hope them to be seen by the Supreme Court, with Heytens focusing on broader policy issues that might lead the Court to decide not to grant cert and Rushing focusing on the bad facts suggesting discriminatory intent that the majority opinion glossed over entirely. |
King argues that the district's courts temporal analysis was wrong and would simply turn “the previous status quo into an immutable quota." But Rushing relies on the same temporal analysis as the basis for evidence of discrimination. These seem in conflict with each other? Can better lawyers opine on this? |
If by 20% you mean 5% then sure. |
It's over. They're not taking this up. Even to those loons, this case is a joke. |
1) That’s a big, big if. It’s a weak case, full stop. It’s hard to see how the Supreme Court benefits at all from granting cert in this case. 2) The Court already had a shot at this when the Coalition requested that the 4th Circuit’s original stay back at this time last year be vacated. They voted 6-3 not to vacate, leaving the process up and running for the Class of 2026. Not much has changed since then. |
We have Ms. Omniscient in our midst. Hail to thee! Will King Charles take Harry back? |
Alito, Thomas, Barrett, Gorsuch - that’s enough to grant cert right there. |
What people don’t talk about enough is how the old admissions policy manifestly discriminated against low-income students. Prior to the changes, you’d see 1-2% of TJ come from economically disadvantaged families. In a good year. The OLD policy had disparate impact on poor kids and the NEW policy sought to rectify those issues. One low-income Asian student in 2024. 51 in 2025. Tells you all you need to know about who the Coalition cares about. |
Barrett wasn’t interested last time. |
The Harvard and UNC cases represent much easier angles of attack on affirmative action than this case.
I think in reality, we’ll have to see the reasoning for how those cases are decided before we have a good idea if this one will be taken up. Those who wish to reestablish the old status quo would be better served turning their attention to the School Board elections - those will be decided LONG before the Supreme Court even decides whether to take this up. But the GOP nominated a confirmed wife-beater to one of their most accessible seats, so… |
The more I read, the more I think TJ should be lottery based with a very high GPA requirement. |
The FCPS School Board is probably a lost cause but it’s telling that the state - which has the final say over Governor’s Schools - filed an amicus brief supporting the Coalition. |
She’d just been confirmed and it would have been more aggressive to effectively pre-empt the 4th Circuit than to let the 4th Circuit rule on the merits and then take up the case. But she might pass again. The facts are ugly and the majority opinion of the 4th Circuit conveniently glosses over them but bad facts don’t necessarily make for good law. |
Centerville, to you. |