Can a China expert explain why xi didn’t let covid burn through the population?

[Anonymous]

This is true and they are already afraid of COVID and think very low of their Government's ability to handle it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The traditional bargain was economic freedom and opportunity in return for accepting the CCP. Lockdowns are cratering their economy and killing that deal. Something has to give, the question is whether or not Xi can survive millions of deaths that will follow the lockdown being lifted

Either of those scenarios are not good for Xi. A lot of deaths in China is also going to affect the economy too. No outcome is good for Xi and this could case serious trouble for him and CCP. Expect significant debt increase for Central and state govt around China. LGFVs are not working there anymore and they don't have property taxes like we do here in US.

[Anonymous]

This could be the downfall of CCP. Liberalization and exposing citizens to west get you this. They can't have it all and people want independence now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
This is a good article about the situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/28/china-abandon-zero-covid-protests-mass-vaccination

No I know all of this. My question was why the initial policy in 2020 was taken?

I know Chinese are big on saving face which means doubling down on terrible policy but the initial 2020 “zero covid” policy never made sense to me

Other countries made zero COVID work— like Australia and New Zealand. But, we’re island-bubbles, and had a robust vaccine campaign.

They managed it for a little while. New Zealand lost the battle in February:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/

Australia lost the battle in January:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

In 1/2022 and 2/2022. Which is exactly what I said. That they did zero COVID until they were able to get the population vaxxed (and boosted for the vulnerable) and get processes for infections and treatment in place. They both had a significant number of infections when they opened up to the rest of the world— very low COVID deaths as a percentage of infections. Under 4000 death in NZ with 2 million infections. Just over 1600 deaths in Australia with 10 million infections. .016% of those infected died.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The traditional bargain was economic freedom and opportunity in return for accepting the CCP. Lockdowns are cratering their economy and killing that deal. Something has to give, the question is whether or not Xi can survive millions of deaths that will follow the lockdown being lifted

Is COVID going to tear through China the way it tore through the US in the early days - just so many hospitalizations, so many deaths? It's hard to even remember what it was like back when this all started here, other than it was terrifying, sad, and horrible.

Will that spill out into other countries again then, too, or are most places more protected because so many people have already gotten the virus and/or vaccine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The traditional bargain was economic freedom and opportunity in return for accepting the CCP. Lockdowns are cratering their economy and killing that deal. Something has to give, the question is whether or not Xi can survive millions of deaths that will follow the lockdown being lifted

Is COVID going to tear through China the way it tore through the US in the early days - just so many hospitalizations, so many deaths? It's hard to even remember what it was like back when this all started here, other than it was terrifying, sad, and horrible.

Will that spill out into other countries again then, too, or are most places more protected because so many people have already gotten the virus and/or vaccine?

Omicron isn't as deadly, but they have a population who lacks exposure and vaccinations. On a per capita basis, it may not be as bad because of omicron, but in absolute numbers, I'd expect it to be bad

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
This is a good article about the situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/28/china-abandon-zero-covid-protests-mass-vaccination

No I know all of this. My question was why the initial policy in 2020 was taken?

I know Chinese are big on saving face which means doubling down on terrible policy but the initial 2020 “zero covid” policy never made sense to me

Other countries made zero COVID work— like Australia and New Zealand. But, we’re island-bubbles, and had a robust vaccine campaign.

They managed it for a little while. New Zealand lost the battle in February:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/

Australia lost the battle in January:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

In 1/2022 and 2/2022. Which is exactly what I said. That they did zero COVID until they were able to get the population vaxxed (and boosted for the vulnerable) and get processes for infections and treatment in place. They both had a significant number of infections when they opened up to the rest of the world— very low COVID deaths as a percentage of infections. Under 4000 death in NZ with 2 million infections. Just over 1600 deaths in Australia with 10 million infections. .016% of those infected died.

Those governments still decided to sacrifice citizens to reopen their country instead of continuing with COVID ZERO. It must be nice to be an island country that doesn't have open borders. Europe and the US didn't have that as an option.

[Anonymous]

But China only wants to protect the people. It’s such a benevolent nation

[Anonymous]

They did the same things as other countries in very early 2020, except to an extreme degree because of the powers of the authoritarian government. So while other countries were instituting stay at home orders apart from the most essential of essential shopping, China was locking people into their homes. They thought that an outbreak tracking and isolation system would work, kind of like how we track rare measles outbreaks in the US. When someone tests positive for measles here, we can trace back their movements and then ask people who were in those places at those times to get tested. That’s what China was able to do after the initial lockdowns and their people lived fairly normal lives in summer/fall of 2020, while places like Australia and Western Europe, and parts of the US, were still under restrictions.

Then the variants started and Covid became more transmissible. And the new variants started to get around the vaccines especially in terms of transmission. China developed their own vaccines which aren’t as protective against the variants, whereas most developed countries were using the vaccines we have in the US + the AstraZeneca vaccine. And at some point, most countries decided that with the vaccines being widely available, the cost-benefit of more shutdowns and restrictions wasn’t worth it. They were harmful to the economy and to the political parties in power when restrictions became politically unpopular.

But there is no such cost-benefit in China where there is only one party and you have no individual freedom. There is the belief throughout society that the government can solve all problems, and so for the government to “change course” abruptly would be seen as a sign of weakness. So the only alternative was to double down on lockdowns and restrictions. Otherwise your political opponents within the CCP see you as weak.

And now, China has a population with VERY little exposure to Covid, who has had less effective vaccines, and where the elderly are skeptical of the vaccines and have a lower than average uptake rate of vaccines and especially boosters. So they’re stuck. If they ease up on the restrictions, people are going to get sick, end up in the hospital, and die. It’s like us and other countries at the end of 2020-beginning of 2021. If they keep the restrictions, the political unrest grows and it’s bad for their economy and tourism. Korea, Japan, Thailand, all have essentially no travel restrictions. Hong Kong is easing up a little and going to testing and monitoring for overseas arrivals. But China is still requiring the quarantine in a government facility. People can’t visit and their own citizens can’t leave without extending their trip another 10 days MINIMUM when they get back to China.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They did the same things as other countries in very early 2020, except to an extreme degree because of the powers of the authoritarian government. So while other countries were instituting stay at home orders apart from the most essential of essential shopping, China was locking people into their homes. They thought that an outbreak tracking and isolation system would work, kind of like how we track rare measles outbreaks in the US. When someone tests positive for measles here, we can trace back their movements and then ask people who were in those places at those times to get tested. That’s what China was able to do after the initial lockdowns and their people lived fairly normal lives in summer/fall of 2020, while places like Australia and Western Europe, and parts of the US, were still under restrictions.

Then the variants started and Covid became more transmissible. And the new variants started to get around the vaccines especially in terms of transmission. China developed their own vaccines which aren’t as protective against the variants, whereas most developed countries were using the vaccines we have in the US + the AstraZeneca vaccine. And at some point, most countries decided that with the vaccines being widely available, the cost-benefit of more shutdowns and restrictions wasn’t worth it. They were harmful to the economy and to the political parties in power when restrictions became politically unpopular.

But there is no such cost-benefit in China where there is only one party and you have no individual freedom. There is the belief throughout society that the government can solve all problems, and so for the government to “change course” abruptly would be seen as a sign of weakness. So the only alternative was to double down on lockdowns and restrictions. Otherwise your political opponents within the CCP see you as weak.

And now, China has a population with VERY little exposure to Covid, who has had less effective vaccines, and where the elderly are skeptical of the vaccines and have a lower than average uptake rate of vaccines and especially boosters. So they’re stuck. If they ease up on the restrictions, people are going to get sick, end up in the hospital, and die. It’s like us and other countries at the end of 2020-beginning of 2021. If they keep the restrictions, the political unrest grows and it’s bad for their economy and tourism. Korea, Japan, Thailand, all have essentially no travel restrictions. Hong Kong is easing up a little and going to testing and monitoring for overseas arrivals. But China is still requiring the quarantine in a government facility. People can’t visit and their own citizens can’t leave without extending their trip another 10 days MINIMUM when they get back to China.

Western governments were very clear that they were locking down to flatten the curve. Once we had vaccines, there was no reason for any restrictions. Even locking down is a misnomer- here it mostly meant eating outside at restaurants and public school children being denied an education. Chinese people have literally starved to death because of lockdowns.

[Anonymous]

China only has 3.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people (compared to 34 per 100,000 in the United States). If they just let Covid burn through it would get really ugly very quickly. Their zero Covid approach is definitely not sustainable though. They’ve really backed themselves into a corner.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:China only has 3.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people (compared to 34 per 100,000 in the United States). If they just let Covid burn through it would get really ugly very quickly. Their zero Covid approach is definitely not sustainable though. They’ve really backed themselves into a corner.

Forgot to post the link:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/icu-beds-per-capita-by-country

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They did the same things as other countries in very early 2020, except to an extreme degree because of the powers of the authoritarian government. So while other countries were instituting stay at home orders apart from the most essential of essential shopping, China was locking people into their homes. They thought that an outbreak tracking and isolation system would work, kind of like how we track rare measles outbreaks in the US. When someone tests positive for measles here, we can trace back their movements and then ask people who were in those places at those times to get tested. That’s what China was able to do after the initial lockdowns and their people lived fairly normal lives in summer/fall of 2020, while places like Australia and Western Europe, and parts of the US, were still under restrictions.

Then the variants started and Covid became more transmissible. And the new variants started to get around the vaccines especially in terms of transmission. China developed their own vaccines which aren’t as protective against the variants, whereas most developed countries were using the vaccines we have in the US + the AstraZeneca vaccine. And at some point, most countries decided that with the vaccines being widely available, the cost-benefit of more shutdowns and restrictions wasn’t worth it. They were harmful to the economy and to the political parties in power when restrictions became politically unpopular.

But there is no such cost-benefit in China where there is only one party and you have no individual freedom. There is the belief throughout society that the government can solve all problems, and so for the government to “change course” abruptly would be seen as a sign of weakness. So the only alternative was to double down on lockdowns and restrictions. Otherwise your political opponents within the CCP see you as weak.

And now, China has a population with VERY little exposure to Covid, who has had less effective vaccines, and where the elderly are skeptical of the vaccines and have a lower than average uptake rate of vaccines and especially boosters. So they’re stuck. If they ease up on the restrictions, people are going to get sick, end up in the hospital, and die. It’s like us and other countries at the end of 2020-beginning of 2021. If they keep the restrictions, the political unrest grows and it’s bad for their economy and tourism. Korea, Japan, Thailand, all have essentially no travel restrictions. Hong Kong is easing up a little and going to testing and monitoring for overseas arrivals. But China is still requiring the quarantine in a government facility. People can’t visit and their own citizens can’t leave without extending their trip another 10 days MINIMUM when they get back to China.

Western governments were very clear that they were locking down to flatten the curve. Once we had vaccines, there was no reason for any restrictions. Even locking down is a misnomer- here it mostly meant eating outside at restaurants and public school children being denied an education. Chinese people have literally starved to death because of lockdowns.

They had hundreds of consecutive days of restrictions in parts of Australia extending into mid-2021. They weren’t at the level of April 2020 style lockdowns but they were FAR more restricted than we were or almost any other Western country. You’re right that in MOST places the heavy restrictions stopped when the vaccines were widely available - but not everywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They did the same things as other countries in very early 2020, except to an extreme degree because of the powers of the authoritarian government. So while other countries were instituting stay at home orders apart from the most essential of essential shopping, China was locking people into their homes. They thought that an outbreak tracking and isolation system would work, kind of like how we track rare measles outbreaks in the US. When someone tests positive for measles here, we can trace back their movements and then ask people who were in those places at those times to get tested. That’s what China was able to do after the initial lockdowns and their people lived fairly normal lives in summer/fall of 2020, while places like Australia and Western Europe, and parts of the US, were still under restrictions.

Then the variants started and Covid became more transmissible. And the new variants started to get around the vaccines especially in terms of transmission. China developed their own vaccines which aren’t as protective against the variants, whereas most developed countries were using the vaccines we have in the US + the AstraZeneca vaccine. And at some point, most countries decided that with the vaccines being widely available, the cost-benefit of more shutdowns and restrictions wasn’t worth it. They were harmful to the economy and to the political parties in power when restrictions became politically unpopular.

But there is no such cost-benefit in China where there is only one party and you have no individual freedom. There is the belief throughout society that the government can solve all problems, and so for the government to “change course” abruptly would be seen as a sign of weakness. So the only alternative was to double down on lockdowns and restrictions. Otherwise your political opponents within the CCP see you as weak.

And now, China has a population with VERY little exposure to Covid, who has had less effective vaccines, and where the elderly are skeptical of the vaccines and have a lower than average uptake rate of vaccines and especially boosters. So they’re stuck. If they ease up on the restrictions, people are going to get sick, end up in the hospital, and die. It’s like us and other countries at the end of 2020-beginning of 2021. If they keep the restrictions, the political unrest grows and it’s bad for their economy and tourism. Korea, Japan, Thailand, all have essentially no travel restrictions. Hong Kong is easing up a little and going to testing and monitoring for overseas arrivals. But China is still requiring the quarantine in a government facility. People can’t visit and their own citizens can’t leave without extending their trip another 10 days MINIMUM when they get back to China.

Western governments were very clear that they were locking down to flatten the curve. Once we had vaccines, there was no reason for any restrictions. Even locking down is a misnomer- here it mostly meant eating outside at restaurants and public school children being denied an education. Chinese people have literally starved to death because of lockdowns.

They had hundreds of consecutive days of restrictions in parts of Australia extending into mid-2021. They weren’t at the level of April 2020 style lockdowns but they were FAR more restricted than we were or almost any other Western country. You’re right that in MOST places the heavy restrictions stopped when the vaccines were widely available - but not everywhere.

No Australians were welded into their homes

[Anonymous]

I can’t believe anyone who watched orange fatso’s handling of covid - “letting it burn through the population” - which is EXACTLY what he did - would even ask this question.

China handled it smartly. We handled it stupidly. And we lost 6,000,000 Americans in 2 years.

China has 5x our population and lost a fraction of the people we lost. That’s what trump got us. 6 million dead.