Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Cry harder on November 5.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

Her "outliers" have been right in the past.

Her outlier poll has a margin of error that still allows for Trump beating Harris in Iowa by more than 3 points.

Which would be a horrible result for Trump.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Oh my goodness, so much craziness in this post, but I think my favorite line is, “She’s dead wrong, but if she’s right”. 😆😆

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Watch out world! The diaper-wearing octogenarian that can’t manage to open a truck door is coming for you! 😂.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.

Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody

Of course she could make a mistake, but the silly thing is that Republicans on this thread are suggesting she’s throwing out a crap poll to try and massage the voters (which is what the vast number of right wing polls are doing), or that she’s wiling to torch her reputation to something something is ridiculous copium.

Maybe she is just getting old and should have retired last year.

We’re talking about Selzer, not Trump. 😉

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

You are even crazier than trump because he knows that he lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Pick up, in aisle 3.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is happening people! Thank goodness.

Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8 pts in 2020. Harris has overtaken him.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

She's not. They just have to have something to keep turnout up. IOW, hope. This is clickbait.

[Anonymous]

I don't think the map will look anything like this, but I do think the popular vote will be much more in her favor than Biden; and I do think there could be one or two surprise states

[Anonymous]

Trump’s red wall in the Midwest is secure even if he loses Iowa. He’s taking Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Minnesota.

People forget the large Muslim population in Minnesota, namely Somali are not happy with the trans takeover in public schools and the Gaza war. An odd marriage indeed but Trump is gaining in African American support and Muslim support in the Midwest and with Latinos in the Southwest and Jews in the Northeast

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think the map will look anything like this, but I do think the popular vote will be much more in her favor than Biden; and I do think there could be one or two surprise states

Of course it could look like that. Has there ever been a lower quality candidate then trump ever? What does he do for any voter in any state? Nothing unless you are a zillionaire.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think the map will look anything like this, but I do think the popular vote will be much more in her favor than Biden; and I do think there could be one or two surprise states

The surprise states will be Minnesota and New York or New Jersey

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

Former republican equals left. You proved PP’s point.

You are certainly free to categorize anyone who doesn’t support Trump as “left,” thereby including among the left Dick Cheney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeff Flake, Bush staffers, and the PP. Just don’t be surprised if, by extension, the “left” (again, using your definition) expands considerably.

As for this poll, in two of the last four presidential elections, Iowa went blue. In six of the last twelve elections, Iowa went blue. Iowa helped give us Obama. It isn’t a “red” state, it is a back-and-forth state.

[Anonymous]

I think Kamala's use of David Plouffe and Jim Messina in her campaign is paying off in Iowa. I'm watching MSNBC and they're about to stream Jim Messina in from Iowa. These guys obsessed over Iowa like no one ever. If it flips, it's all on them and I think they could be gathering a more similar Obama coalition then we could be expecting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Cry harder on November 5.

They are going to need support and hand-holding.

Is there any talk of setting up some FEMA tents where they can get counseling and grief support to deal with election results? What can be done to help them? Serious question.