Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

The polls from Pew to NY Times are fairly standard. What are you main voter concerns? It’s just not giving you the answer you’re looking for because you can’t understand that an issue that you are passionate is not on someone else’s radar. Try varying your news sources. You write as if you are living in a partisan bubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

I have republican family members that say the same.

[Anonymous]

This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

Former republican equals left. You proved PP’s point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming about Iowa you liberal fools.

Make sure you have you “safe spaces” set up on Wednesday so you can go there and cry together.

np It isn't going to be decided by Wednesday. And remember who had the tantrum on January 6th when you 'leader' LOST? You did FOOL

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

I have republican family members that say the same.

The difference is the do not call themselves former republicans. They just know that Trump is not a republican.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming about Iowa you liberal fools.

Make sure you have you “safe spaces” set up on Wednesday so you can go there and cry together.

np It isn't going to be decided by Wednesday.

I don’t think we will know Tuesday but Wednesday is definitely a possibility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

Her "outliers" have been right in the past.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

Her "outliers" have been right in the past.

Her outlier poll has a margin of error that still allows for Trump beating Harris in Iowa by more than 3 points.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This might not translate to MI/WI/PA :

https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510

There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.

I mean that's not what Wasserman is saying. He thinks Iowa 03 could flip to the Dems and that the Selzer poll could have some merit *in Iowa*. He is skeptical that it will extend to a blue wave in WI-MI-PA because district level polling does not show the same softness in 2020 Trump districts. Harris can still win those states without flipping any Trump districts, if she runs up the margins in blue districts.

It may be that the poll is not an outlier but that Iowa ism, due to the abortion ban there. It is likely motivating voters in ways you won't see in states that don't have similar bans in place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

Did she get paid big money when she predicted Trump's win in 2016?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Vladmir, stand down. What time is it in Moscow?

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

PP here. Nope. I’m a hard ass national security focused former republican. I believe in the greatness of the United States. [b]Trump is a traitor and should be punished accordingly. His actions have deeply damaged our global standing. You bet I’m enraged about J6.

YOU are the traitor !!!!!! President Trump showed strength and iron will on January 6.
He would have reversed the stolen election and TRUMPHED if it weren’t for so-called “traditional” Republican Pence. It’s a new world where POWER and STRENGTH matter far more than people whining at a protest or filling out ovals on a piece of paper.

Selzer is a fossil and dead wrong. But if she’s right it’s only because there aren’t obvious precincts in Iowa for police and voter integrity troops to concentrate their efforts.

All the swing states have those cesspools of vermin, those obvious precincts to police and eliminate voter fraud. Philadelphia. Detroit. Milwaukee. Vegas. Phoenix. Tucson. And most of all, Atlanta.

What a so-called Democrat aka ILLEGAL tells a pollster doesn’t matter if they get rejected at the polls or gives up because their fellow illegals cause such an enormous line they give up. In the battleground states, where it matters, President Trump will clean up and trumph over his in-American illegal opponent by the force and power of his WILL!!!!!!!!!

Vladimir, stand down. What time is it in Moscow?