Big 3 Nightmare

[Anonymous]

Thanks very helpful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If math-y kid, push 8th grade math to let kid do geometry summer before 9th (GDS has) and to test out so they can go straight into Algebra II 9th.

GDS in general opposes kids going ahead in summers. I've been told that point blank by two department heads. It's against their spirit of equity. Meanwhile, in the real world of admissions, kids everywhere else are doing summer enrichment etc. Don't listen to the school on that. Run your own play of kid is academically inclined.

Agree with your comments throughout this thread in general, but differ here. For a math-y kid who was not initially accelerated, Honors Algebra II in 10th > Core/Extended Algebra II in 9th. It's the rare kid who isn't doing Geometry in 8th who will be ready for Honors Algebra II in 9th. GDS is perfectly happy to accelerate prepared kids in math. The summer issue is not about equity but about ensuring that the foundations are sound.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If math-y kid, push 8th grade math to let kid do geometry summer before 9th (GDS has) and to test out so they can go straight into Algebra II 9th.

GDS in general opposes kids going ahead in summers. I've been told that point blank by two department heads. It's against their spirit of equity. Meanwhile, in the real world of admissions, kids everywhere else are doing summer enrichment etc. Don't listen to the school on that. Run your own play of kid is academically inclined.

Agree with your comments throughout this thread in general, but differ here. For a math-y kid who was not initially accelerated, Honors Algebra II in 10th > Core/Extended Algebra II in 9th. It's the rare kid who isn't doing Geometry in 8th who will be ready for Honors Algebra II in 9th. GDS is perfectly happy to accelerate prepared kids in math. The summer issue is not about equity but about ensuring that the foundations are sound.

Thanks helpful. Can you say more about why Honors Algebra II 10th is better? Is that optics/rigor for college process?

Many thanks

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sounds like lots of disenchanted GDS senior parents (like me) lurking here.

Lots of good stuff about this school academically but the CCO is highly variable, but more so is entirely devoid of facts and data, and runs the process like mindful meditation seminar sophomore and junior year and then 0 to 100 senior fall with no straight answers to yes or no questions on whether i should apply here or there.

My favorite was the junior year parents meeting where they started with 5 minutes on whether college is right for your kid. I mean WTF guys - we are at a college prep school.

For the next kid, I will be much more in command of the process, bringing data, and calling out their lack of numerical approach

I also think the 10 school cap has to be raised to 12 or 15. It mostly protects middle of the pack kids but the number hasnt changed in 10 years+. Meanwhile apps are up +20% per year every year since that time.

The limit set at 10 helps the registrar and the CCOs but not the kids.

At the very least, they can make state flagships unlimited.

Why?

Aren't the state flagships generally the land of the middle-of-the-pack kids?

If you allow your top kids to apply to them, then where do the middle kids go?

Serious question. Limiting apps protects everyone from the top 20% kids. This used to work until this year when
SOME (not all) top 20% kids started getting shut out of the top 0-30 schools. The kids likely applied to a few
safeties in the 30-70 range and are now attending one of these. But if you give them the ability to apply to unlimited state
schools in the 30-70 range, then where do the kids who traditionally matched with those schools (the middle-of-the-packers) go?

It's a tenuous balance but these limits are there to help spread the wealth of the admits across the class and protect
the lower ranked kids from losing their spots to the top 20% kids.

No that’s more GMU type schools. Unless you mean flagships in sparsely populated states.

The middle of the class at GDS is not historically (up to and including 2022 at least) matriculating to GMU. They're attending much better schools.

Check out the 2022 Instagram which almost represents the class in full. Your guess is as good as mine as to who the middle 50% kids are but there is no one going to GMU (and very few to similarly ranked schools) and definitely not the full middle 50%.
https://www.instagram.com/gdsseniors22/

That is because they can afford more expensive schools, equally mediocre.

[Anonymous]

Have a kid in the middle school - not many 8th graders are in geometry. They are fighting some of the kids who are further along in terms of what they can take in high school. I’d follow pp advice if only I’d had a ‘mathy one’

The difference in kids going to UCs has to also be the tightening of UCs re out of state.

Would be thrilled with WM.

Thanks for all the advice

[Anonymous]

This thread seems to be primarily about GDS. Is Sidwell similar or STA/NCS?

Also, how does GDS address the needs of families who are seeking need based and merit aid? Do they allow those families to apply more broadly? DC is on considerable FA at another school and I would not be ok if DC had to limit options for matching with a school with adequate funding because of arbitrary school rules.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sounds like lots of disenchanted GDS senior parents (like me) lurking here.

Lots of good stuff about this school academically but the CCO is highly variable, but more so is entirely devoid of facts and data, and runs the process like mindful meditation seminar sophomore and junior year and then 0 to 100 senior fall with no straight answers to yes or no questions on whether i should apply here or there.

My favorite was the junior year parents meeting where they started with 5 minutes on whether college is right for your kid. I mean WTF guys - we are at a college prep school.

For the next kid, I will be much more in command of the process, bringing data, and calling out their lack of numerical approach

I also think the 10 school cap has to be raised to 12 or 15. It mostly protects middle of the pack kids but the number hasnt changed in 10 years+. Meanwhile apps are up +20% per year every year since that time.

The limit set at 10 helps the registrar and the CCOs but not the kids.

At the very least, they can make state flagships unlimited.

Why?

Aren't the state flagships generally the land of the middle-of-the-pack kids?

If you allow your top kids to apply to them, then where do the middle kids go?

Serious question. Limiting apps protects everyone from the top 20% kids. This used to work until this year when
SOME (not all) top 20% kids started getting shut out of the top 0-30 schools. The kids likely applied to a few
safeties in the 30-70 range and are now attending one of these. But if you give them the ability to apply to unlimited state
schools in the 30-70 range, then where do the kids who traditionally matched with those schools (the middle-of-the-packers) go?

It's a tenuous balance but these limits are there to help spread the wealth of the admits across the class and protect
the lower ranked kids from losing their spots to the top 20% kids.

i buy into the theory of your case but i'd love some analysis or description why 15 would break things for lower students and 10 does not.

See the thing is, like much of the rest of GDS CCO, it's a data free zone.

And yes my kid was one of the top 20% of class shut out this year. Will never know but 5 more targets would have really helped this kid given the math.

I’m sorry that the process has been so stressful and disappointing but what do you mean by shut out? Shot out from Ivies? Shut out from Top 25 schools? Or Shut out more broadly? I am not a current GDS HS parent but I have been in the past. I understand the frustration about the lack of data.

Can one of the GDS senior parents answer this? What is mean when top 20% kids are talked about as being "shut out?" Is it shut out of top 20? top 40? all schools?
Where (please give a generic example) might these kids be now matriculating in the fall?
Thank you! As a lower high school parent it's hard to know what to think or how much to worry or what to talk to the school about if we don't understand what is happening this year.

Senior parent. I want to be careful since this is public but my kid was top 20% of class. hard to know exactly but pretty sure. very high 1400s/1500 SAT. Co head of multiple clubs blah blah. national award in something he's passionate about academically. involved at school and outside like most GDS kids. 3.8 gpa unweighted had a B+ in couple UL classes - otherwise all A range since 9th grade started. Multiple UL classes junior and senior.

0 acceptances in top 35-40 schools by US News. Multiple waitlists.

Top acceptance was just under #40 US News.

Got into 2 safeties and 2 target. Going to a target. I dont want to name the target for obvious reasons. Kid is happy now but last two weeks of readouts were TERRIBLE for the ego.

Target school types for this kid were: Wm & Mary, Brandeis, Case Western, St Andrews, Univ Edinburgh, Santa Clara, Occidental etc. Think something along that line for where kid will attend.

Just didnt win the lottery this year. Mostly upset the game changed after 2019 and private school UMC white kids no longer wanted.

My gripes w/ GDS - as I've posted here before 1) capping at 10 schools unrealistic w/ applications now up 2x in 4 years 2) no data used/shown by CCO to parents/kids on odds by school for GPA/test 3) the entire approach to AP tests, AP courses, etc

I'm a Big3 parent of an A- junior who was trembling in my shoes when I first read these posts. However, I attended Case and my husband went to William and Mary.
I'm both breathing a sigh of relief and slightly maddened that you consider attending our universities being "shut out."
A bit of perspective would do you well.

NP: they are great schools. I’m sure the kid will do well. But looking at Naviance from our public, some of these are attainable with much lower grades and scores then this kid has. It doesn’t mean he wouldn’t get a good education there but it’s reasonable to think he’d be competitive at more selective schools.

[Anonymous]

I see parents saying their kids are in the top XX%, is this official from your school or your estimation based on how you think your child performed relative to peers? Our private does not rank and my kid would tell me who she thinks are the top maybe 5 students in her grade but she wouldn't wager a guess for top 20%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sounds like lots of disenchanted GDS senior parents (like me) lurking here.

Lots of good stuff about this school academically but the CCO is highly variable, but more so is entirely devoid of facts and data, and runs the process like mindful meditation seminar sophomore and junior year and then 0 to 100 senior fall with no straight answers to yes or no questions on whether i should apply here or there.

My favorite was the junior year parents meeting where they started with 5 minutes on whether college is right for your kid. I mean WTF guys - we are at a college prep school.

For the next kid, I will be much more in command of the process, bringing data, and calling out their lack of numerical approach

I also think the 10 school cap has to be raised to 12 or 15. It mostly protects middle of the pack kids but the number hasnt changed in 10 years+. Meanwhile apps are up +20% per year every year since that time.


The limit set at 10 helps the registrar and the CCOs but not the kids.

At the very least, they can make state flagships unlimited.

Why?

Aren't the state flagships generally the land of the middle-of-the-pack kids?

If you allow your top kids to apply to them, then where do the middle kids go?

Serious question. Limiting apps protects everyone from the top 20% kids. This used to work until this year when
SOME (not all) top 20% kids started getting shut out of the top 0-30 schools. The kids likely applied to a few
safeties in the 30-70 range and are now attending one of these. But if you give them the ability to apply to unlimited state
schools in the 30-70 range, then where do the kids who traditionally matched with those schools (the middle-of-the-packers) go?

It's a tenuous balance but these limits are there to help spread the wealth of the admits across the class and protect
the lower ranked kids from losing their spots to the top 20% kids.

i buy into the theory of your case but i'd love some analysis or description why 15 would break things for lower students and 10 does not.

See the thing is, like much of the rest of GDS CCO, it's a data free zone.

And yes my kid was one of the top 20% of class shut out this year. Will never know but 5 more targets would have really helped this kid given the math.

I’m sorry that the process has been so stressful and disappointing but what do you mean by shut out? Shot out from Ivies? Shut out from Top 25 schools? Or Shut out more broadly? I am not a current GDS HS parent but I have been in the past. I understand the frustration about the lack of data.

Can one of the GDS senior parents answer this? What is mean when top 20% kids are talked about as being "shut out?" Is it shut out of top 20? top 40? all schools?
Where (please give a generic example) might these kids be now matriculating in the fall?
Thank you! As a lower high school parent it's hard to know what to think or how much to worry or what to talk to the school about if we don't understand what is happening this year.

Senior parent. I want to be careful since this is public but my kid was top 20% of class. hard to know exactly but pretty sure. very high 1400s/1500 SAT. Co head of multiple clubs blah blah. national award in something he's passionate about academically. involved at school and outside like most GDS kids. 3.8 gpa unweighted had a B+ in couple UL classes - otherwise all A range since 9th grade started. Multiple UL classes junior and senior.

0 acceptances in top 35-40 schools by US News. Multiple waitlists.

Top acceptance was just under #40 US News.

Got into 2 safeties and 2 target. Going to a target. I dont want to name the target for obvious reasons. Kid is happy now but last two weeks of readouts were TERRIBLE for the ego.

Target school types for this kid were: Wm & Mary, Brandeis, Case Western, St Andrews, Univ Edinburgh, Santa Clara, Occidental etc. Think something along that line for where kid will attend.

Just didnt win the lottery this year. Mostly upset the game changed after 2019 and private school UMC white kids no longer wanted.

My gripes w/ GDS - as I've posted here before 1) capping at 10 schools unrealistic w/ applications now up 2x in 4 years 2) no data used/shown by CCO to parents/kids on odds by school for GPA/test 3) the entire approach to AP tests, AP courses, etc

I'm a Big3 parent of an A- junior who was trembling in my shoes when I first read these posts. However, I attended Case and my husband went to William and Mary.
I'm both breathing a sigh of relief and slightly maddened that you consider attending our universities being "shut out."
A bit of perspective would do you well.

NP: they are great schools. I’m sure the kid will do well. But looking at Naviance from our public, some of these are attainable with much lower grades and scores than this kid has. It doesn’t mean he wouldn’t get a good education there but it’s reasonable to think he’d be competitive at more selective schools.

That is different data point than I have. The MCPS kids I know do going to W&M have tons of APs, advanced math beyond Bc Calc, and all As plus 1500 SATs. Maybe a Virginia school is different bc in state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If math-y kid, push 8th grade math to let kid do geometry summer before 9th (GDS has) and to test out so they can go straight into Algebra II 9th.

GDS in general opposes kids going ahead in summers. I've been told that point blank by two department heads. It's against their spirit of equity. Meanwhile, in the real world of admissions, kids everywhere else are doing summer enrichment etc. Don't listen to the school on that. Run your own play of kid is academically inclined.

Agree with your comments throughout this thread in general, but differ here. For a math-y kid who was not initially accelerated, Honors Algebra II in 10th > Core/Extended Algebra II in 9th. It's the rare kid who isn't doing Geometry in 8th who will be ready for Honors Algebra II in 9th. GDS is perfectly happy to accelerate prepared kids in math. The summer issue is not about equity but about ensuring that the foundations are sound.

Thanks helpful. Can you say more about why Honors Algebra II 10th is better? Is that optics/rigor for college process?

Many thanks

In MCPS, advanced kids take Algebra 2 in either 8th or 9th. However, if you aren't going into a STEM major, it probably doesn't matter. Its surprising to me how much slower the privates are in terms of math.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If math-y kid, push 8th grade math to let kid do geometry summer before 9th (GDS has) and to test out so they can go straight into Algebra II 9th.

GDS in general opposes kids going ahead in summers. I've been told that point blank by two department heads. It's against their spirit of equity. Meanwhile, in the real world of admissions, kids everywhere else are doing summer enrichment etc. Don't listen to the school on that. Run your own play of kid is academically inclined.

Agree with your comments throughout this thread in general, but differ here. For a math-y kid who was not initially accelerated, Honors Algebra II in 10th > Core/Extended Algebra II in 9th. It's the rare kid who isn't doing Geometry in 8th who will be ready for Honors Algebra II in 9th. GDS is perfectly happy to accelerate prepared kids in math. The summer issue is not about equity but about ensuring that the foundations are sound.

Thanks helpful. Can you say more about why Honors Algebra II 10th is better? Is that optics/rigor for college process?

Many thanks

In MCPS, advanced kids take Algebra 2 in either 8th or 9th. However, if you aren't going into a STEM major, it probably doesn't matter. Its surprising to me how much slower the privates are in terms of math.

8th is pretty rare even in MCPS. It requires bussing to a high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If math-y kid, push 8th grade math to let kid do geometry summer before 9th (GDS has) and to test out so they can go straight into Algebra II 9th.

GDS in general opposes kids going ahead in summers. I've been told that point blank by two department heads. It's against their spirit of equity. Meanwhile, in the real world of admissions, kids everywhere else are doing summer enrichment etc. Don't listen to the school on that. Run your own play of kid is academically inclined.

Agree with your comments throughout this thread in general, but differ here. For a math-y kid who was not initially accelerated, Honors Algebra II in 10th > Core/Extended Algebra II in 9th. It's the rare kid who isn't doing Geometry in 8th who will be ready for Honors Algebra II in 9th. GDS is perfectly happy to accelerate prepared kids in math. The summer issue is not about equity but about ensuring that the foundations are sound.

The GDS reluctance to accelerate kids in math in middle school is an entirely different topic, but I have thoughts . . . !

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sounds like lots of disenchanted GDS senior parents (like me) lurking here.

Lots of good stuff about this school academically but the CCO is highly variable, but more so is entirely devoid of facts and data, and runs the process like mindful meditation seminar sophomore and junior year and then 0 to 100 senior fall with no straight answers to yes or no questions on whether i should apply here or there.

My favorite was the junior year parents meeting where they started with 5 minutes on whether college is right for your kid. I mean WTF guys - we are at a college prep school.

For the next kid, I will be much more in command of the process, bringing data, and calling out their lack of numerical approach

I also think the 10 school cap has to be raised to 12 or 15. It mostly protects middle of the pack kids but the number hasnt changed in 10 years+. Meanwhile apps are up +20% per year every year since that time.

The limit set at 10 helps the registrar and the CCOs but not the kids.

At the very least, they can make state flagships unlimited.

Or how about they charge you $50 for each additional application (or whatever they deem the cost is plus some), up to a limit of 15.

But equity....

seriously though....exactly. Many ways to solve this. When asked multiple times about the 10 limit on parent webinar, I've been grinf*cked by head of the office.

"but equity"...aren't the majority of students fully pay, or close to it? So give waivers adjusted accordingly based on how much tuition you pay. I get why they limit, because really nobody needs to apply to 20+ colleges, you can't possibly really want to attend all Ivies as they are really different schools. So force kids to pick at most 4-5 T20-30 schools, then 4-5 Targets and 4-5 safeties. In the new test optional environment where so many are applying to many more schools I get that 10 may not be enough.
I'd be pissed if I paid that much for HS and was limited to only 10

yeah I was kidding on the equity line. That's what GDS would say.

I'm right there with you. they should increase to 15. I'm not sure they can tell kids where to apply or even say 3 to 5 in this range or that. I actually am not sure they can legally do that

In fact on limiting to 10, they proudly say that UC and UCAS (Uk) both count as one. So in reality kids who apply UCs and UCAS can be maxing to nearly 20+ schools.

But here's what they dont say - UCs have become AP course dependent and weighted GPA focused. GDS does not do well there now having dropped AP. UC was a wasted application at GDS this year except maybe UC Davis and the tier below. And UKAS require 4 to 5 AP tests which until last september GDS told parents to not take for last 3 years.

so yeah...

I wonder what would happen if a parent actually lawyered up and challenged the 10 cap with a letter from counsel. GDS does not disclose the 10 cap until junior spring parent meeting. At that point, you have paid deposit on senior year. There is zero transparency when you are applying to GDS that college is capped at 10. When it's brought up junior spring, it's said "of course you all know we limit to 10"

Well I didnt know. No other parents knew unless they had been through this before.

Oh they certainly cannot legally tell kids where to apply. But it would benefit them to help their students have a balanced list if they can only apply to 15 schools (and assume UCs count as 1): so 4 reaches and the UCs (or 5 reaches), 4-6 targets and 4-6 safeties with 1-2 of those being a true likely with over 75-80% acceptance rates.

And it sucks that you didn't know this prior. For what you pay for HS, one would think the college process would be fully outlined in minute details.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread seems to be primarily about GDS. Is Sidwell similar or STA/NCS?

Also, how does GDS address the needs of families who are seeking need based and merit aid? Do they allow those families to apply more broadly? DC is on considerable FA at another school and I would not be ok if DC had to limit options for matching with a school with adequate funding because of arbitrary school rules.

The NCS process is much more transparent and you have access to more data. That does not mean everyone at NCS is thrilled with their outcomes or with the process, but having been through it at both schools, we found the NCS approach less stressful. There are very few scenarios where having less information is better than having more information.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Should have applied to one of those reaches ED (Barnard, Davidson, Wash U) instead of to HYP SCEA or Brown ED. The UC schools aren't taking hardly any out of state students any more - someone should've told her that.

Top 20%/1500 isn't all that great, sorry.

Only in your mind is this not great.

I know what I'm talking about. Our unhooked DD had a 3.9+/1570 at a Big 3 school and was told that HYP was unlikely so the better play was to apply ED to another top school because RD is a crapshoot.

I'm not saying the kid isn't great, but the stats aren't.

Those stats are absolutely fine for HYP…but the CCO knew there were 10 double legacy kids to those schools and athletes, etc applying and those schools are only taking X kids from the school…because that is all they take year in and year out

Yes you just hit the nail on the head. Students are competing with their classmates. Need to be savvy about not applying where others have hooks better than yours. Student in my kid’s class is a triple legacy at Stanford and also really bright in their own right so that school is completely off the table for my high stats kid.

Ok i like where this discussion is headed because we are getting deep and real now.

We have a Big 3 3.8+!1500 kid who was rejected at all reaches (including a legacy REA) and admitted at two targets and safeties.

What I wish CCO did with us was to be very upfront about what you say. Instead we noticed a lot of double talk and no clear guidance. Never was told I would not apply to X because there is a VIP double legacy and a works class athlete applying there. And that college only ever takes one from our school if any. Instead was told “it will be tough but if it’s in your heart, then apply”.

Maybe inspect too much from CCO and they can’t be that honest. I found that the busy body parents were subtly gathering info on where top academic kids were applying early at parent cocktail parties. Their kids were too

We are also at the school where they don’t use data or share scattergrams at all. So we and 17 year old were left reading tone and body language over zoom from our CCO. Never given factual or hard data driven advice.

That said it’s all a lottery and my kid didn’t win a reach lottery.

One more thing - this thread discusses whether we have kids there at BUg 3 to get onto T20. Answer for me - sort of. First priority is a great education. But for a kid in the top 10-12 kids in the class, I did actually expect back when our kid started 10 years ago at this Big 3 that being legacy at a HYP and being from a Big 3 would help with Top 20.

It didn’t for us. I’m not upset at the Big 3 for that. The game changed entirely after class of 2019 and those attributes our kid had were no longer what institutional priorities are at T20. Just a very solid academic EC kid but not a world class anything. and not URM.

Our kid will still have an amazing life so zero bitterness here. Kid has a great education, will go to a solid university and will hopefully shine there.

I do have some lingering bitterness at the CCO at our Big 3 not being more data driven, direct and clear in list formation. That’s very specific to our school that is known for its “relax” and “trust the kid’s feelings and their heart” attitude. I truly dislike that and found that lack of clear communication actually way stressed out the process because I actually ended up not trusting time at all and not being relaxed.

When the next kid goes through this we will be much more direct asking CCO hard questions about who else applying VIP multi hooked and using ED more wisely and actuallly not trusting Big 3 CCO platitudes.

Was your DC a lifer? While my DCs were circumspect about discussing where random kids in their class were applying, they were fairly aware what kids were doing and generally shared about their friends. Our DCs had two different CCOs, one who was also head of the office, at a Big 3 in different metro area (our DCs started at a Big 3 in DMV). The head never gave specific names but was fairly explicit about prospects with our DC about their first suggestion for ED1 (scenario: deferred in ED out of courtesy, then rejected in RD). The other CCO did something similar with DC#2. I doubt CCOs are going to provide details unsolicited, but they may respond to a question - "are there any kids who are legacies applying in this class?".

Asking about lifer as we pretty much knew most parents' details in their classes by the time we left the DMV. We didn't know as exhaustively when we moved, but picked up a fair amount over time at their second school. And even though our DCs didn't start their second school till later elementary/MS, our one kid was in all the top classes, so it was fairly easy to know who were the top students as they had been in classes together since 6th grade.

Our DCs' school doesn't use Naviance - or at least for kids/parents - and doesn't share internal data if they do have it. What I appreciated with DC#1 counselor is that they pivoted quickly after the 2020 admissions. Doubt they would have let a kid w/o a realistic list go forward or would probably tell parents, "this is gonna be on you" if they insisted on it. DC#2's was not so conservative and basically told our kid that a list capping out @ 30% admit rate would be fine. I was not really sanguine about that and also felt that DH was stuck in an admissions world when he attended school even if we had some contemporary evidence to the contrary (DH's best friend's kid getting rejected right and left at T20 even though 4.0/1560 SAT). Both our DCs got into their ED1s so it was a moot point, but do think DC#2 could've been in trouble based on what happened to some friends.

PP, you sound like a great parent. Your DC's CC office could benefit from your insights, but DK if you feel you can share.

GL to your DC with next school year!

Our big 3 will not answer this sort of question. They are also doing no specific advising on best shots for ED or suggestions for pivots after ED reject/defer. In fact, the "final list deadline" was Dec 15 (before most ED's were released). There is little advising other than making sure there is a safety. Maybe telling some kids they have longshot. But for a strong student who has stats to be in lottery - there is no nuanced counseling about whether they should consider one ED over another or which schools would be a good match based on the past at that school (or which ones don't seem accept students at that school).