Girls DA/ECNL in VA: who will survive?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU rosters are done. There are no openings.

They just announced ID session for this week & next week for every age group?

https://twitter.com/metroutdDA

Good clubs will always make room for that one special player, and some players - if they follow the rules - can't even go to an ID session until after San Diego.

[Anonymous]

MU rosters are still done. There is no spot they are targeting to fill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

3 outside kids joining FCV’s DA and 10 showing up for ID sessions is not a destination.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now.

If that is true, and I don't believe that it is, this area will struggle to field truly top-level teams.

FCV currently has the #1 (U19) #20 (U17) and #8 (U15) seeds in the national playoff at the DA level. Maybe most of the talent is already there.

Staying with your local team is what rec soccer is for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

3 outside kids joining FCV’s DA and 10 showing up for ID sessions is not a destination.

And this is why FCV parents are on DCUM bashing other clubs. Anything to make them look bad and thus help FCV. It's a sign of desperation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

3 outside kids joining FCV’s DA and 10 showing up for ID sessions is not a destination.

And this is why FCV parents are on DCUM bashing other clubs. Anything to make them look bad and thus help FCV. It's a sign of desperation.

Is this satire?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:any chance we can come full circle? Who thinks that all of the existing DA and ECNL teams will be around in 5 years? will there be consolidation or not? I think there will, even if it's consolidation by certain clubs becoming "destination" in this new age and others becoming less "elite." My vote is that FCV will remain a destination and Arlington will become a destination. BRYC and Mclean will no longer be destinations. MU will get absorbed into some larger club. I don't know much about Loudoun or VDA or the whole Maryland side of the river, although Bethesda/Mclean and Balt Armour/MD United may be stealing each others' players. My kids will be long gone by 5 years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

I'll take a shot -

FCV. FCV will remain near the top but will not be as lofty as it is now. FCV's draw was based on two big claims: 1. it was the best option for high level success and recruitment in Loudoun, and 2. a reputation "that's where the top girls play" that drew in players from western Fairfax (and few from even further). The first part is now challenged by Loudoun joining ECNL (who as noted below, still has a ways to go), and by joining the DA, FCV already has and will continue to lose some top players who want to play high school. The second part is based in large part on what will be their rising senior class (most of whom were recruited over as a group from SYA). Their U15s are good too and will serve as something of a draw but once FCV loses its marquee team, parents of younger players will be less attracted to the program. Add in the uncertainty of the St. James acquisition, FCV will suffer but as long as there are soccer parents who will put up with obnoxious coaches and poor treatment in the hopes of seeing their little superstar win lots of tournament trophies, FCV will remain near the top of the Nova soccer pyramid.

Arlington. ASA is not and for the foreseeable will not be a destination club on the girls side. Joining the DA will not change that. Their coaches are not that good and the inability to play HS will cost them players (just check where the best players at Yorktown play club already). Arlington's best asset is it's strong rec and younger age travel program but that base is based on the club's geographic location. As the girls age, the club faces top competition from clubs (BRYC, McLean and even Bethesda) that are just as convenient, have had more success, have a better track record of getting players into top programs, more success on the field and better coaches. As a result, Arlington will continue to lose their top players, as they have historically.

BRYC and McLean face the same big question, although it's more pressing for BRYC - how do you replace the face of the program? With Larry having left BRYC and Clyde getting up there, both clubs will be pressed to maintain the quality and personality of the program. Both clubs are pretty even in terms of talent and results (eg, BRYC is ranked higher in three ECNL age groups, McLean is ranked higher in the other three). At BRYC, Mikey certainly doesn't bring the same demeanor as Larry but his teams have done well so will that success be enough to overcome his personality? BRYC does not draw heavily from the club's rec program so it will need to continue to impress in order to keep attracting top players from other local clubs. For McLean, I believe they will continue to a very viable and relatively successful travel program as they will continue to attract top players from their own large youth program but also from the neighboring Arlington and Vienna clubs. However, I don't think they'll again reach the heights of their u18/19 teams of the past two years as there are now too many other options around nor do the potential replacements have the draw the Clyde does. What McLean must avoid is becoming a second chance jobs program for soccer coaches like Arlington has.

Loudoun. With the addition of ECNL, they addressed their biggest issue by providing a reason for top players to stay with the club instead of seeking the paradise of ECNL and DA showcases offered by FCV, McLean and even BRYC. With a solid feeder program, I expect them to improve and over time, perhaps even surpass FCV, especially if more of FCV's training is transitioned to Springfield.

VDA. I've said before and I'll say again, VDA exists to serve (i) PWC parents with top players who are unwilling to fight traffic to give their kids better training at better clubs, or (ii) parents who want they child to be on an ECNL/DA level team but the kid can't get an offer from any other DA/ECNL club. I've seen nothing recently that would make me change my opinion, but they're are enough parents who fit into these categories that VDA will hobble along.

MU. Without the Spirit affiliation to draw players in and without any type of real feeder program, MU will struggle through one more season and then shut its doors. That's not a statement on the quality of the coaches but just the reality that the uncertainty of the club's future coupled with the lack of success last season will cause top current players to look for better alternatives, which starts momentum that can't be stopped.

I think this one is my favorite. Read it carefully.

EVERY club has problems EXCEPT for one. Surprise...LOUDOUN. They are simply the best.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now.

If that is true, and I don't believe that it is, this area will struggle to field truly top-level teams.

FCV currently has the #1 (U19) #20 (U17) and #8 (U15) seeds in the national playoff at the DA level. Maybe most of the talent is already there.

Staying with your local team is what rec soccer is for.

With respect to the bolded text, these teams were originally formed when McLean and FCV were the only "elite" teams in NoVa. Times have changed. Let's see how FCV's and McLean's 2007 and younger teams progress over the next 5 years now that there are several local "elite" options available to girls in the area. Maybe FCV and McLean retain their high-levels of success. Maybe they don't. It will be interesting to see over the coming years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now.

If that is true, and I don't believe that it is, this area will struggle to field truly top-level teams.

FCV currently has the #1 (U19) #20 (U17) and #8 (U15) seeds in the national playoff at the DA level. Maybe most of the talent is already there.

Staying with your local team is what rec soccer is for.

With respect to the bolded text, these teams were originally formed when McLean and FCV were the only "elite" teams in NoVa. Times have changed. Let's see how FCV's and McLean's 2007 and younger teams progress over the next 5 years now that there are several local "elite" options available to girls in the area. Maybe FCV and McLean retain their high-levels of success. Maybe they don't. It will be interesting to see over the coming years.

FCV and McLean have NO CHANCE. Haven't you heard? Loudoun is taking over the entire DC Metro

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:any chance we can come full circle? Who thinks that all of the existing DA and ECNL teams will be around in 5 years? will there be consolidation or not? I think there will, even if it's consolidation by certain clubs becoming "destination" in this new age and others becoming less "elite." My vote is that FCV will remain a destination and Arlington will become a destination. BRYC and Mclean will no longer be destinations. MU will get absorbed into some larger club. I don't know much about Loudoun or VDA or the whole Maryland side of the river, although Bethesda/Mclean and Balt Armour/MD United may be stealing each others' players. My kids will be long gone by 5 years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

I'll take a shot -

FCV. FCV will remain near the top but will not be as lofty as it is now. FCV's draw was based on two big claims: 1. it was the best option for high level success and recruitment in Loudoun, and 2. a reputation "that's where the top girls play" that drew in players from western Fairfax (and few from even further). The first part is now challenged by Loudoun joining ECNL (who as noted below, still has a ways to go), and by joining the DA, FCV already has and will continue to lose some top players who want to play high school. The second part is based in large part on what will be their rising senior class (most of whom were recruited over as a group from SYA). Their U15s are good too and will serve as something of a draw but once FCV loses its marquee team, parents of younger players will be less attracted to the program. Add in the uncertainty of the St. James acquisition, FCV will suffer but as long as there are soccer parents who will put up with obnoxious coaches and poor treatment in the hopes of seeing their little superstar win lots of tournament trophies, FCV will remain near the top of the Nova soccer pyramid.

Arlington. ASA is not and for the foreseeable will not be a destination club on the girls side. Joining the DA will not change that. Their coaches are not that good and the inability to play HS will cost them players (just check where the best players at Yorktown play club already). Arlington's best asset is it's strong rec and younger age travel program but that base is based on the club's geographic location. As the girls age, the club faces top competition from clubs (BRYC, McLean and even Bethesda) that are just as convenient, have had more success, have a better track record of getting players into top programs, more success on the field and better coaches. As a result, Arlington will continue to lose their top players, as they have historically.

BRYC and McLean face the same big question, although it's more pressing for BRYC - how do you replace the face of the program? With Larry having left BRYC and Clyde getting up there, both clubs will be pressed to maintain the quality and personality of the program. Both clubs are pretty even in terms of talent and results (eg, BRYC is ranked higher in three ECNL age groups, McLean is ranked higher in the other three). At BRYC, Mikey certainly doesn't bring the same demeanor as Larry but his teams have done well so will that success be enough to overcome his personality? BRYC does not draw heavily from the club's rec program so it will need to continue to impress in order to keep attracting top players from other local clubs. For McLean, I believe they will continue to a very viable and relatively successful travel program as they will continue to attract top players from their own large youth program but also from the neighboring Arlington and Vienna clubs. However, I don't think they'll again reach the heights of their u18/19 teams of the past two years as there are now too many other options around nor do the potential replacements have the draw the Clyde does. What McLean must avoid is becoming a second chance jobs program for soccer coaches like Arlington has.

Loudoun. With the addition of ECNL, they addressed their biggest issue by providing a reason for top players to stay with the club instead of seeking the paradise of ECNL and DA showcases offered by FCV, McLean and even BRYC. With a solid feeder program, I expect them to improve and over time, perhaps even surpass FCV, especially if more of FCV's training is transitioned to Springfield.

VDA. I've said before and I'll say again, VDA exists to serve (i) PWC parents with top players who are unwilling to fight traffic to give their kids better training at better clubs, or (ii) parents who want they child to be on an ECNL/DA level team but the kid can't get an offer from any other DA/ECNL club. I've seen nothing recently that would make me change my opinion, but they're are enough parents who fit into these categories that VDA will hobble along.

MU. Without the Spirit affiliation to draw players in and without any type of real feeder program, MU will struggle through one more season and then shut its doors. That's not a statement on the quality of the coaches but just the reality that the uncertainty of the club's future coupled with the lack of success last season will cause top current players to look for better alternatives, which starts momentum that can't be stopped.

I think this one is my favorite. Read it carefully.

EVERY club has problems EXCEPT for one. Surprise...LOUDOUN. They are simply the best.

As the author of that post, I will say that I have no affiliation with Loudoun, and never will. Too far away. And I should have put (and meant to, as alluded to it in the FCV section) that their teams have a LONG way to go as they're at the bottom of the ECNL barrel; I mean, when VDA is better than or essentially even with you in every age group, your teams are not good. At the older age groups, top players were long gone before the club joined ECNL. It will take at least 3 to 4 years before Loudoun will be competitive in all age groups.

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Anonymous wrote:MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week.

+1000. The basic point that all this “analysis” misses. MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield. We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.

Then you made your decesion.

Agreed. You sound like you have made the decision. Every club has its risks and MU is no exception. GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant. Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen. I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine. Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two.

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way. An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now.

If that is true, and I don't believe that it is, this area will struggle to field truly top-level teams.

FCV currently has the #1 (U19) #20 (U17) and #8 (U15) seeds in the national playoff at the DA level. Maybe most of the talent is already there.

Staying with your local team is what rec soccer is for.

With respect to the bolded text, these teams were originally formed when McLean and FCV were the only "elite" teams in NoVa. Times have changed. Let's see how FCV's and McLean's 2007 and younger teams progress over the next 5 years now that there are several local "elite" options available to girls in the area. Maybe FCV and McLean retain their high-levels of success. Maybe they don't. It will be interesting to see over the coming years.

FCV and McLean have NO CHANCE. Haven't you heard? Loudoun is taking over the entire DC Metro

I don’t think that is the point. The point is that player movement for destination clubs will drop significantly. The 07 age group is already showing the tell tale signs of that happening. Kids, who in the past, would have left Loudoun and now they stayed. Look at Arlington’s DA rosters. The rosters are very heavily skewed to Arlington and the immediate surrounding area.

The FCV 07 DA will demonstrate a very similarly strong Geographic affiliation.

For contrast look at FCV’s U19-U17 as well as McLean’s. Those rosters have kids from all over.