Girls DA/ECNL in VA: who will survive?

[Anonymous]

what do people think of the outlook 4 years from now? I’m assuming that the primary goal of the girls playing in ECNL and DA is getting looks to play in college, whether D1 or D3.

ECNL:
Mclean is great at the older ages (teams established before there were DA options) and not as good at the younger. Their feeder club seems less populated than it used to be. Geographically competing with Arlington to the east and Metro United to the west and BRYC to the south. And even Bethesda to the north? They were already losing out to FCV on talent before DA came into existence 2 years ago, and now there are all of those other options for showcasing available.

VDA seems to have strong feeder clubs, and a grip on the geography between Richmond and the beltway.

Loudoun also has a strong feeder pool, and may be winning the western geography given the St. James situation with FCV.

BRYC seems to be, like mclean, great at the older ages but struggling at the younger. And losing players from teams younger than 03. May be losing geographically to VDA to the west/south, Mclean to the north, and Arlington to the east.

DA:
FCV remains the strongest program in the area (remnant of the time when FCV and Mclean were mostly the only girls’ games in town, with a nod to BRYC) but this St James situation and its uncertainty will be an issue. If practices move towards St James and away from Evergreen over the next 3 years, STJFCV will lose the western player pool to Loudoun but might gain some of the southern player pool from BRYC or VDA.

Arlington just got the full girls DA this year and has a huge feeder population (like Loudoun). Arlington wins the traffic geography for kids inside the beltway on the Virginia side, other than those sitting in Tysons/Mclean, since it will generally be a reverse commute. And they can draw from parts of DC and MD that are closer in.

Metro United (née Washington Spirit VA). As much as I like to root for the underdog, I think this club will be made up of kids who don’t make the Loudoun, Mclean, Arlington, STJFCV, BRYC teams. Still haven’t seen any announced feeder club partnerships beyond GFR, which could be a real talent issue given market saturation of team options.

My prediction is that Arlington DA, Loudoun ECNL, and VDA ECNL end up on top in 5 years for pure player pool size, player development, and geographic/traffic reasons. FCV will stay in the mix and in the conversation on the strength of its current brand, but the St. James uncertainty will undermine it and 3 or 4 years from now, FCV will be what Mclean is today — a former destination club in the mid-pack in the standings and on its way down. Mclean will putter along but be at the bottom of the ECNL rankings, and if Clyde Watson retires, its talent draw will go downhill very fast. Metro United and BRYC will have ceased to participate at the ECNL/DA levels, perhaps by merging their top team with those of other clubs in their respective leagues (like Richmond United ECNL has partnerships with all the top clubs in Richmond, like VDA with its feeder clubs, and like Baltimore Armour DA and its club partnerships).

[Anonymous]

Well. Someone has a lot of time on their hands.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:what do people think of the outlook 4 years from now? I’m assuming that the primary goal of the girls playing in ECNL and DA is getting looks to play in college, whether D1 or D3.

ECNL:
Mclean is great at the older ages (teams established before there were DA options) and not as good at the younger. Their feeder club seems less populated than it used to be. Geographically competing with Arlington to the east and Metro United to the west and BRYC to the south. And even Bethesda to the north? They were already losing out to FCV on talent before DA came into existence 2 years ago, and now there are all of those other options for showcasing available.

VDA seems to have strong feeder clubs, and a grip on the geography between Richmond and the beltway.

Loudoun also has a strong feeder pool, and may be winning the western geography given the St. James situation with FCV.

BRYC seems to be, like mclean, great at the older ages but struggling at the younger. And losing players from teams younger than 03. May be losing geographically to VDA to the west/south, Mclean to the north, and Arlington to the east.

DA:
FCV remains the strongest program in the area (remnant of the time when FCV and Mclean were mostly the only girls’ games in town, with a nod to BRYC) but this St James situation and its uncertainty will be an issue. If practices move towards St James and away from Evergreen over the next 3 years, STJFCV will lose the western player pool to Loudoun but might gain some of the southern player pool from BRYC or VDA.

Arlington just got the full girls DA this year and has a huge feeder population (like Loudoun). Arlington wins the traffic geography for kids inside the beltway on the Virginia side, other than those sitting in Tysons/Mclean, since it will generally be a reverse commute. And they can draw from parts of DC and MD that are closer in.

Metro United (née Washington Spirit VA). As much as I like to root for the underdog, I think this club will be made up of kids who don’t make the Loudoun, Mclean, Arlington, STJFCV, BRYC teams. Still haven’t seen any announced feeder club partnerships beyond GFR, which could be a real talent issue given market saturation of team options.

My prediction is that Arlington DA, Loudoun ECNL, and VDA ECNL end up on top in 5 years for pure player pool size, player development, and geographic/traffic reasons. FCV will stay in the mix and in the conversation on the strength of its current brand, but the St. James uncertainty will undermine it and 3 or 4 years from now, FCV will be what Mclean is today — a former destination club in the mid-pack in the standings and on its way down. Mclean will putter along but be at the bottom of the ECNL rankings, and if Clyde Watson retires, its talent draw will go downhill very fast. Metro United and BRYC will have ceased to participate at the ECNL/DA levels, perhaps by merging their top team with those of other clubs in their respective leagues (like Richmond United ECNL has partnerships with all the top clubs in Richmond, like VDA with its feeder clubs, and like Baltimore Armour DA and its club partnerships).

Ok, Swami. How about you put your name to this so we can revisit it in four years?

[Anonymous]

This is what happens when crazy lacrosse dads have girls.

[Anonymous]

This is stupid. You ignore the 800ib gorilla in the room, girls HS soccer. You also ignore that McLean has several of the best coaches in girls youth soccer. McLean has a proven track record of getting girls to the highest level and kids will continue to go there for the opportunity to play at the highest level.

FCV will remain a force in the DA.

Loudoun can better fend-off FCV but serious talent but there is enough talent for both to strive.

Who will suffer the most is MoCo/PGCo/FrCo soccer teams. There is only one ECNL/DA in town for elite players and Bethesda has failed to satisfy that crowd so they will increasingly head over the Potomac for Arlington, McLean, FCV and Loudoun. Bethesda is trying to save itself by bringing in a strong coach and team for Rush but that is not enough. Bethesda has one team that qualified for ECNL nationals. McLean has four. https://www.soccerwire.com/news/clubs/youth-girls/thirteen-potomac-area-teams-qualify-for-ecnl-champions-league-playoffs/

[Anonymous]

Loudoun and Arlington are kickball central that can't develop and mostly rely on recruitment from other clubs. Loudoun is the weakest local ECNL program, while Arlington is below average DA program. I don't see these two clubs moving to the top in girls game. FCV will continue to be the top DA program. McLean and BRYC are likely to be the top ECNL programs, although VDA may also rise on the strength of its younger age groups.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Loudoun and Arlington are kickball central that can't develop and mostly rely on recruitment from other clubs. Loudoun is the weakest local ECNL program, while Arlington is below average DA program. I don't see these two clubs moving to the top in girls game. FCV will continue to be the top DA program. McLean and BRYC are likely to be the top ECNL programs, although VDA may also rise on the strength of its younger age groups.

4 years from now....

[Anonymous]

Both survive. ECNL is the new CCL. There is nothing wrong with that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Both survive. ECNL is the new CCL. There is nothing wrong with that.

Another worthless attempt to recruit for a failing project. Sigh.

Its done. No more players are moving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Both survive. ECNL is the new CCL. There is nothing wrong with that.

Another worthless attempt to recruit for a failing project. Sigh.

Its done. No more players are moving.

BRYC and Loudoun came from where?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Both survive. ECNL is the new CCL. There is nothing wrong with that.

Another worthless attempt to recruit for a failing project. Sigh.

Its done. No more players are moving.

BRYC and Loudoun came from where?

They came from NCSL to CCL to ECNL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Both survive. ECNL is the new CCL. There is nothing wrong with that.

Another worthless attempt to recruit for a failing project. Sigh.

Its done. No more players are moving.

BRYC and Loudoun came from where?

They came from NCSL to CCL to ECNL.

I don't disagree (or the now defunct VCCL). And it's even more a takeover on the boys' side, with McLean, Maryland United, and so on.

[Anonymous]

Loudoun will be fine. They are at least stable and big. No worries

[Anonymous]

Washington Spirit DA will cease to exist. Wait, that already happened.

STJFCV will increase costs as more play is moved to the St. James. The program will struggle, until the girls DA dies a slow death by 2022.

Loudoun, BRYC, VDA, McLean, Arlington, and some FCV remnant will be ECNL, until two merger occurs, leaving three strong ECNL teams in NoVa, who scoop up all local talent truly capable of "elite" level soccer.

[Anonymous]

Arlington DA wins. Easy based on location and coaches. McLean implodes.