Reply to Girls DA/ECNL in VA: who will survive?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]MU might be your choice but if FCV gets its act together re: St James and Arlington remains a viable option, MU will get squeezed if it can't build momentum. We are in a wait and see situation and any input can change the entire dynamic.

I believe the market is divided into two segments: Elites girls who want HS and elite girls those who don't. ECNL/EDP/CCL and DA are the choices.

In NoVa, elite girls have a bounty of options. Even if MU falls, there will be other clubs that will step up to fiil the slot.[/quote]

Why would MU get squeezed? We are a DA family that lives in Ashburn. FCV is viable to us this year but no way that we are driving to Arlington or Springfield 4x per week. [/quote]

+1000.  The basic point that all this “analysis” misses.  MU will be the only DA game in town once FCV migrates to Springfield.   We will not drive to Springfield or Arlington all week every week and are not an ECNL family.  [/quote]

Then you made your decesion. [/quote]

Agreed.  You sound like you have made the decision.  Every club has its risks and MU is no exception.  GFR is not a club that has any history of being at a level to carry a DA so the risks at MU are significant.  Who fills the void IF FCV is training only at STJ and MU collapses remains to be seen.  I have my money on the DA still being a destination so FCVSTJ and Arlington would be just fine.  Whether another DA gets awarded, that is another question.  [/quote]

The feeding age groups with FCV at 08 and 09 are worse than the same age groups at GFR.

PWSI, VSA, Loudoun are all better at those age groups than FCV.

Current 07 teams at Loudoun, FCV, McLean and Arlington look to stay static and mostly in tact demonstrating that destination clubs are very much in decline.

MU really just needs to hang on a year or two. [/quote]

FCV is a destination (which means exactly that - a destination) and until someone unseats the club at the top of the DA pecking order, it will continue to be that way.  An ECNL club will not do that and I think expecting GFR to do that is wishful thinking.  [/quote]

Bobby stop. The evidence is clear, kids are staying at their home clubs more now. [/quote]

If that is true, and I don't believe that it is, this area will struggle to field truly top-level teams.

[b]FCV currently has the #1 (U19) #20 (U17) and #8 (U15) seeds in the national playoff at the DA level.[/b]  Maybe most of the talent is already there.

Staying with your local team is what rec soccer is for.[/quote]

With respect to the bolded text, these teams were originally formed when McLean and FCV were the only "elite" teams in NoVa.  Times have changed.  Let's see how FCV's and McLean's 2007 and younger teams progress over the next 5 years now that there are several local "elite" options available to girls in the area.  Maybe FCV and McLean retain their high-levels of success.  Maybe they don't.  It will be interesting to see over the coming years.[/quote]

FCV and McLean have NO CHANCE.  Haven't you heard?  Loudoun is taking over the entire DC Metro[/quote]

I don’t think that is the point. The point is that player movement for destination clubs will drop significantly. The 07 age group is already showing the tell tale signs of that happening. Kids, who in the past, would have left Loudoun and now they stayed. Look at Arlington’s DA rosters. The rosters are very heavily skewed to Arlington and the immediate surrounding area.

The FCV 07 DA will demonstrate a very similarly strong Geographic affiliation.

For contrast look at FCV’s U19-U17 as well as McLean’s. Those rosters have kids from all over. [/quote]

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