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Reply to "Harris beating Trump in Iowa"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This might not translate to MI/WI/PA : https://x.com/Redistrict/status/1853108021221904510[/quote] There are always going to be outlier polls even when they are well designed. Hers is one of them.[/quote] I mean that's not what Wasserman is saying. He thinks Iowa 03 could flip to the Dems and that the Selzer poll could have some merit *in Iowa*. He is skeptical that it will extend to a blue wave in WI-MI-PA because district level polling does not show the same softness in 2020 Trump districts. Harris can still win those states without flipping any Trump districts, if she runs up the margins in blue districts. It may be that the poll is not an outlier but that Iowa ism, due to the abortion ban there. It is likely motivating voters in ways you won't see in states that don't have similar bans in place.[/quote]
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