Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former. There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters? |
Anonymous
No, but polling was done for the 2018 elections. “ The midterm elections prove that at least for now Rasmussen is dead wrong and traditional pollsters are correct.” - CNN article. |
Anonymous
WHOOOOoooo HooOo !! That’s my cousins ‘n them! Riding with Biden! Don’t mKe is get on the road in our trucks too... 🚙 🚙 🚙 🚙 |
Anonymous
Right. We're not talking about the enthusiasm of Trump voters. You're saying the anti-Trump voters don't have enough enthusiasm to come to the polls. I'm saying look at how motivated we were in 2018 - when Trump wasn't EVEN on the ballot. Do you really think two years later, with all that's happened between then and now, we are LESS enthusiastic about getting him out? As I have said a thousand times, and have to keep reminding myself = we have zero guarantee Trump will lose. I pray to gd he will but can't guarantee it. But you are out of your mind if you think Dems aren't fired up. I just got back from my fourth time volunteering with the Biden campaign to deliver voting guides in my swing state. Do you think I am the only one giving up my free time to do that? Have you seen the fundraising numbers? Have you seen the early voting numbers? Biden has been a surprisingly lovable candidate. I think he's really tapped into something deep. But even more than that TRUMP IS SO GD AWFUL and I certainly don't feel LESS that way now than in 2018. That's what I mean when I say 2018 begs to differ. The polls could be wrong again. We could be reading them wrong. We could be failing to take into account that something with a 1 in 10 chance of happening happens. I am not sitting here feeling like I can just relax, it's all sewn up. But I do feel like your take on this is anywhere near correct. I think Trump voters are really misreading how much we hate him. |
Anonymous
You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here. If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions. |
Anonymous
Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico: https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619 Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data. |
Anonymous
|
Nationally in 2016 the polls were "off" by one point (Clinton won popular vote by 2 points, the polling average was Clinton +3). Very little evidence if shy Trump supporters there.
State polls were off, but they weren't many if them in 2016, especially high quality polls right before the election. What made them off? 1. They didn't weight for education 2. Undecideds swung towards Trump after the Comey letter This year many are weighting for education, there are more high quality polls, and there are few undecideds. Very different from 2016. |
Anonymous
Yes, I saw those. That article is fairly speculative itself. The Trafalgar pollster leans extremely R, so is often wrong, only in the opposite direction from other pollsters. If you look at WI, PA, and MI from 2016, the polling average was exactly correct for Clinton but underestimated Trump. The reason Trump won was that all the undecideds broke for Trump. If there were shy Trump voters, they were pretending to be undecided. which might not even be a lie if they really did feel a little uncertain. The polls were not "off," analysts simply didn't consider the undecideds breaking for Trump in their analysis. This year there are many fewer undecideds, and Biden is polling at or over 50%. So even in the unlikely event that all undecideds vote for the incumbent, Biden will still win. Thanks for looking at evidence though. Makes for better discussion. |
Anonymous
AYFKMWT? Do you need to see the video of the Trumples trying to run the Biden bus off the road? I linked in another thread to a Biden voter who found that her Biden sign had been shot down. You’re acting like a dullard. The “cultural climate” is the one in which the sitting president and his eldest offspring are acting as stochastic terrorists. Trump has been urging violence for months - stand back and stand by. So let’s not pretend that Trump voters don’t have personality disorders, Midwestern or not. And I live in the upper Midwest. I can assure you that Trumpies aren’t quiet, even up here. |
Anonymous
No, 2016 polls for Michigan were within the margin for error, and 12 percent were undecided voters. Lots of people voted third party. Almost 80 thousand people voted without marking anyone for president. Trump won by about 10 thousand votes. |
Anonymous
Be this all as it may, if god forbid the polls were reversed, and it was Trump leading in nearly 15 swing states- a number of which were never swing states until this year- I’d be sh****ing my pants. If the best trump can hope for is a Hail Mary, and hope that the polls are off beyond a standard margin of error in a dozen states, it’s a good position for Biden to be in. You can’t logically argue that Trump can do anything besides eck out a win, and likely by stealing a few states via absentee ballot counting. |
Anonymous
|
Reuters
MICHIGAN Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42% WISCONSIN Biden 53% (+10) Trump 43% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 0% West 0% PENNSYLVANIA Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45% Jorgensen 1% Hawkins 1% West 0% SCS/MINNESOTA Biden 54% (+15) Trump 39% |
Anonymous
+1. We can all agree that the only thing that matters is the actual vote (and the counting of it). But I would rather be a Biden supporter than a Trump supporter right now. GOTV and let’s finish this thing strong. |
Anonymous
You think so? Convince me. |