Reply to Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1)  Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2)  Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.[/quote]

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?[/quote]
You are the obtuse one.  You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them.  Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say,  not suppositions.[/quote]

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

[/quote]

No, 2016 polls for Michigan were within the margin for error, and 12 percent were undecided voters. Lots of people voted third party. Almost 80 thousand people voted without marking anyone for president. Trump won by about 10 thousand votes.

[/quote]

Be this all as it may, if god forbid the polls were reversed, and it was Trump leading in nearly 15 swing states- a number of which were never swing states until this year- I’d be sh****ing my pants. If the best trump can hope for is a Hail Mary, and hope that the polls are off beyond a standard margin of error in a dozen states, it’s a good position for Biden to be in. You can’t logically argue that Trump can do anything besides eck out a win, and likely by stealing a few states via absentee ballot counting. [/quote]

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