Don't buy in MoCo until the school redistricting is setled?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hi all, forgive me for not reading 17 pages of the back and forths. Last several pages are littered with minutiae. What is the estimated date that the boundary assessment will be done by and when will the Board of Ed decide on formalizing the boundary changes? Trying to align this with buying a home in the next 1-2 years. TIA

The consultants' boundary analysis report is due this spring. But that will not include any boundary changes. After the report comes out, the board has to decide whether to begin any new boundary studies (which they typically announce in the fall). If they do, each study will have a specific scope and timeline. It is a slow-moving process.

There is only one study currently underway, and its recommended changes are to be announced in November 2020, to take effect in Fall 2021.
https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/planning/SomersetWestbrookBoundaryStudy.aspx

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

No way. The only way that Potomac will not be impacted by diversity bussing would be if all the incumbent BOE members up for re-election are voted out and the MCCPTA/MCPS/MOCO Council endorsed candidates do not win.

First - MCPS has not problem creating islands or gerrymandering boundaries to achieve whatever its current goal is and if diversity is it then RM or Rockville High School will get Potomac kids. Second - MCPS is vindictive. They hate that Potomac parents are objecting to the county wide diversity boundary study. They will get even. Third - there is no way if the Silver Spring crowd gets re-elected that Churchill and Whitman will stay as they are now. These two schools are THE target and the envy, hatred and obsession with these schools from the SS crowd is crazy.

There really is not any safe place in MOCO. Even the UMC neighborhoods in the DCC which for whatever reason thinks they are immune to getting rezoned to a lower performing school will be impacted -if the initiative does not get stopped. The only things likely to stop it are election consequences or a case getting up to the SC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

No way. The only way that Potomac will not be impacted by diversity bussing would be if all the incumbent BOE members up for re-election are voted out and the MCCPTA/MCPS/MOCO Council endorsed candidates do not win.

First - MCPS has not problem creating islands or gerrymandering boundaries to achieve whatever its current goal is and if diversity is it then RM or Rockville High School will get Potomac kids. Second - MCPS is vindictive. They hate that Potomac parents are objecting to the county wide diversity boundary study. They will get even. Third - there is no way if the Silver Spring crowd gets re-elected that Churchill and Whitman will stay as they are now. These two schools are THE target and the envy, hatred and obsession with these schools from the SS crowd is crazy.

There really is not any safe place in MOCO. Even the UMC neighborhoods in the DCC which for whatever reason thinks they are immune to getting rezoned to a lower performing school will be impacted -if the initiative does not get stopped. The only things likely to stop it are election consequences or a case getting up to the SC.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

No way. The only way that Potomac will not be impacted by diversity bussing would be if all the incumbent BOE members up for re-election are voted out and the MCCPTA/MCPS/MOCO Council endorsed candidates do not win.

First - MCPS has not problem creating islands or gerrymandering boundaries to achieve whatever its current goal is and if diversity is it then RM or Rockville High School will get Potomac kids. Second - MCPS is vindictive. They hate that Potomac parents are objecting to the county wide diversity boundary study. They will get even. Third - there is no way if the Silver Spring crowd gets re-elected that Churchill and Whitman will stay as they are now. These two schools are THE target and the envy, hatred and obsession with these schools from the SS crowd is crazy.

There really is not any safe place in MOCO. Even the UMC neighborhoods in the DCC which for whatever reason thinks they are immune to getting rezoned to a lower performing school will be impacted -if the initiative does not get stopped. The only things likely to stop it are election consequences or a case getting up to the SC.

+1

It's funny how the wealthiest people feel the most victimized. You all really think you are the center of the universe. It's kind of hilarious. They are not going to send SS students to Whitman (by the way, I went to Whitman, and I would not pay an extra couple hundred thousand to send my child there, but do what you like). They are probably going to send some Walter Johnson students to Einstein. They are probably going to look at other opportunities to get some more balance in adjacent clusters (e.g Diamond ES and Brown Station ES are right next to each other but one has a 10% FARMS rate and the other has a 70% FARMS rate). They are not going to bus students to the other side of the county.

[Anonymous]

This the real estate forum. The higher priced properties have more money to lose. Realtors and any look at the data will show you that a drop in school ranking can have anywhere between a 5%-20% drop in value depending on how far the ranking drops. Even using a conservative 10% you can see a big difference between losing 10% on a 1.5M dollar home and losing 10% on a 500K home. No one is going to any appreciation with this endeavor because the low income kids are growing at far faster rate than the high income kids. Some fools think they will d better and get rezoned out of areas like the DCC but they are crazy because there are so few UMC neighborhoods in the DCC that MCPS can not afford to move those neighborhoods to better schools. They will end up where they are now or get moved to a worse school in the DCC.

For outside buyers, the uncertainty of whether you will be the unlucky person to get handed a 5%-20% reduction in value overnight is a risk too large for many to take. You pile this risk onto all the other negatives impacting MOCO (taxes, county almost bankrupt, no job growth, bad traffic, growing crime and poverty) and its a hard sell for people looking to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This the real estate forum. The higher priced properties have more money to lose. Realtors and any look at the data will show you that a drop in school ranking can have anywhere between a 5%-20% drop in value depending on how far the ranking drops. Even using a conservative 10% you can see a big difference between losing 10% on a 1.5M dollar home and losing 10% on a 500K home. No one is going to any appreciation with this endeavor because the low income kids are growing at far faster rate than the high income kids. Some fools think they will d better and get rezoned out of areas like the DCC but they are crazy because there are so few UMC neighborhoods in the DCC that MCPS can not afford to move those neighborhoods to better schools. They will end up where they are now or get moved to a worse school in the DCC.

For outside buyers, the uncertainty of whether you will be the unlucky person to get handed a 5%-20% reduction in value overnight is a risk too large for many to take. You pile this risk onto all the other negatives impacting MOCO (taxes, county almost bankrupt, no job growth, bad traffic, growing crime and poverty) and its a hard sell for people looking to buy.

You all really think people in the DCC are sitting around dreaming that their house will suddenly get zoned to Whitman? GTFO. This is a myth to discredit those of us who support the boundary study.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
This the real estate forum. The higher priced properties have more money to lose. Realtors and any look at the data will show you that a drop in school ranking can have anywhere between a 5%-20% drop in value depending on how far the ranking drops. Even using a conservative 10% you can see a big difference between losing 10% on a 1.5M dollar home and losing 10% on a 500K home. No one is going to any appreciation with this endeavor because the low income kids are growing at far faster rate than the high income kids. Some fools think they will d better and get rezoned out of areas like the DCC but they are crazy because there are so few UMC neighborhoods in the DCC that MCPS can not afford to move those neighborhoods to better schools. They will end up where they are now or get moved to a worse school in the DCC.

For outside buyers, the uncertainty of whether you will be the unlucky person to get handed a 5%-20% reduction in value overnight is a risk too large for many to take. You pile this risk onto all the other negatives impacting MOCO (taxes, county almost bankrupt, no job growth, bad traffic, growing crime and poverty) and its a hard sell for people looking to buy.


You all really think people in the DCC are sitting around dreaming that their house will suddenly get zoned to Whitman? GTFO. This is a myth to discredit those of us who support the boundary study.

Yeah, there are a range of what's in it for me folks in the DCC.
There are a bunch hoping that they will get rezoned from Einstein to Woodward or WJ. There are some Northwood folks who hope they will get rezoned to Blair. There are some who hope that if real estate in Whitman or WJ clusters goes down that it will then be affordable to them and they'll move. There are also some economy understanding challenged folks that somehow think tanking property values in Bethesda will help their values rise more. It doesn't work that way. If Bethesda drops, their areas will drop even further.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
This the real estate forum. The higher priced properties have more money to lose. Realtors and any look at the data will show you that a drop in school ranking can have anywhere between a 5%-20% drop in value depending on how far the ranking drops. Even using a conservative 10% you can see a big difference between losing 10% on a 1.5M dollar home and losing 10% on a 500K home. No one is going to any appreciation with this endeavor because the low income kids are growing at far faster rate than the high income kids. Some fools think they will d better and get rezoned out of areas like the DCC but they are crazy because there are so few UMC neighborhoods in the DCC that MCPS can not afford to move those neighborhoods to better schools. They will end up where they are now or get moved to a worse school in the DCC.

For outside buyers, the uncertainty of whether you will be the unlucky person to get handed a 5%-20% reduction in value overnight is a risk too large for many to take. You pile this risk onto all the other negatives impacting MOCO (taxes, county almost bankrupt, no job growth, bad traffic, growing crime and poverty) and its a hard sell for people looking to buy.


You all really think people in the DCC are sitting around dreaming that their house will suddenly get zoned to Whitman? GTFO. This is a myth to discredit those of us who support the boundary study.

Yeah, there are a range of what's in it for me folks in the DCC.
There are a bunch hoping that they will get rezoned from Einstein to Woodward or WJ. There are some Northwood folks who hope they will get rezoned to Blair. There are some who hope that if real estate in Whitman or WJ clusters goes down that it will then be affordable to them and they'll move. There are also some economy understanding challenged folks that somehow think tanking property values in Bethesda will help their values rise more. It doesn't work that way. If Bethesda drops, their areas will drop even further.

These people sound like the perfect bogeymen in this whole boundary study debate. You have quite an imagination.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

No way. The only way that Potomac will not be impacted by diversity bussing would be if all the incumbent BOE members up for re-election are voted out and the MCCPTA/MCPS/MOCO Council endorsed candidates do not win.

First - MCPS has not problem creating islands or gerrymandering boundaries to achieve whatever its current goal is and if diversity is it then RM or Rockville High School will get Potomac kids. Second - MCPS is vindictive. They hate that Potomac parents are objecting to the county wide diversity boundary study. They will get even. Third - there is no way if the Silver Spring crowd gets re-elected that Churchill and Whitman will stay as they are now. These two schools are THE target and the envy, hatred and obsession with these schools from the SS crowd is crazy.

There really is not any safe place in MOCO. Even the UMC neighborhoods in the DCC which for whatever reason thinks they are immune to getting rezoned to a lower performing school will be impacted -if the initiative does not get stopped. The only things likely to stop it are election consequences or a case getting up to the SC.

Jeezus, get a grip. You must lead a sad existence to obsess over this stuff. Reading your post makes my head spin - I see it all...vitimization, entitlement, neurosis, etc.

FWIW, I don't have a dog in this race as my kids are younger (in public - in the QO district but I am interested in moving to a neighborhood that may leave Wootton) but you reaction is exactly what's wrong with this county. I am not familiar with the "SS sentiment" you are referring to but it seems to be the same kind of neurotic obsession that you have, just on different sides of the spectrum.

[Anonymous]

We can thank the BOE for setting this debate on fire and then making us wait years until it gets resolved.

[Anonymous]

You should wait. Some home prices in certain school clusters will drop by a lot of they are rezoned to other schools. Or, if you plan on buying in a disputed zone you may want to buy now before home values go up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
This the real estate forum. The higher priced properties have more money to lose. Realtors and any look at the data will show you that a drop in school ranking can have anywhere between a 5%-20% drop in value depending on how far the ranking drops. Even using a conservative 10% you can see a big difference between losing 10% on a 1.5M dollar home and losing 10% on a 500K home. No one is going to any appreciation with this endeavor because the low income kids are growing at far faster rate than the high income kids. Some fools think they will d better and get rezoned out of areas like the DCC but they are crazy because there are so few UMC neighborhoods in the DCC that MCPS can not afford to move those neighborhoods to better schools. They will end up where they are now or get moved to a worse school in the DCC.

For outside buyers, the uncertainty of whether you will be the unlucky person to get handed a 5%-20% reduction in value overnight is a risk too large for many to take. You pile this risk onto all the other negatives impacting MOCO (taxes, county almost bankrupt, no job growth, bad traffic, growing crime and poverty) and its a hard sell for people looking to buy.


You all really think people in the DCC are sitting around dreaming that their house will suddenly get zoned to Whitman? GTFO. This is a myth to discredit those of us who support the boundary study.

Yeah, there are a range of what's in it for me folks in the DCC.
There are a bunch hoping that they will get rezoned from Einstein to Woodward or WJ. There are some Northwood folks who hope they will get rezoned to Blair. There are some who hope that if real estate in Whitman or WJ clusters goes down that it will then be affordable to them and they'll move. There are also some economy understanding challenged folks that somehow think tanking property values in Bethesda will help their values rise more. It doesn't work that way. If Bethesda drops, their areas will drop even further.

Do you actually live or talk to people who live in the DCC? Or are you so bored that you spend your days sitting around spinning up fantasies?

I live in the DCC and don't know anyone who is obsessing over the boundary analysis like some of the crazies on DCUM. The one minor fear I've heard is our neighborhood getting rezoned from Einstein to Northwood. Not that anything is wrong with Northwood, but it's easy to get into Northwood already through te choice process, whereas it is not as easy to get into Einstein if it isn't your home school. But I haven't heard anyone use this as a reason for mot evaluating the boundaries. It's been a long time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We can thank the BOE for setting this debate on fire and then making us wait years until it gets resolved.

Or you can thank your fellow Montgomery County parents for going absolutely bananas about a study of 40-year-old school boundaries which can help fix a problem Montgomery County parents have been complaining about for years, namely school overcrowding.

It's not the BOE's fault you went bananas. That's on you.

-Montgomery County parent

[Anonymous]

You should wait. Some home prices in certain school clusters will drop by a lot of they are rezoned to other schools. Or, if you plan on buying in a disputed zone you may want to buy now before home values go up.

Agree that you should wait but in this situation no area is going to go up. MCPS is not going to move UMC/MC neighborhoods currently zoned for lower performing /higher FARMS schools into higher performing/ lower FARMS schools. There just are not enough UMC/MC students to do this type of shuffling. You won't see the big score jumps in the lower performing schools that would receive more high income kids because enough there are still too many low income kids for the UMC ones to make enough of a dent, plus most UMC parents will not send their kids there/will opt out for private.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You should wait. Some home prices in certain school clusters will drop by a lot of they are rezoned to other schools. Or, if you plan on buying in a disputed zone you may want to buy now before home values go up.

Agree that you should wait but in this situation no area is going to go up. MCPS is not going to move UMC/MC neighborhoods currently zoned for lower performing /higher FARMS schools into higher performing/ lower FARMS schools. There just are not enough UMC/MC students to do this type of shuffling. You won't see the big score jumps in the lower performing schools that would receive more high income kids because enough there are still too many low income kids for the UMC ones to make enough of a dent, plus most UMC parents will not send their kids there/will opt out for private.

You have a skewed perception of what most UMC families can afford. If you can afford property in MoCo and private school for your kids, then you are probably kidding yourself if you think you are still UMC.