Don't buy in MoCo until the school redistricting is setled?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would wait at least 3 years and see what happens or be mentally prepared to lose 10%-20% of the homes value in a short time period. There are too many negatives in MOCO. The budget shortfall and no way to increase revenues is an even bigger problem than rezoning.

On the rezoning, very few areas will be "safe". MCPS clusters cover large geographic areas and few, if any schools are more than two clusters away from a low ranked school. Its fine for MCPS to say that it is not going to bus kids across the county from Poolesville to Kennedy but there are many moves from adjacent and second school over adjacent clusters that can send values tumbling. The neighborhoods in Paint Branch were not the closest or geographically adjacent to SV but the cluster was adjacent. Those residents were taken by surprise that their area is now an island feeding into a much lower ranked school. If MCPS is going to achieve an SES balance of getting schools into a 30% or 40% FARMS then its going to have to rezone by reaching deeper into "adjacent" clusters to move UMC neighborhoods north and/or east.

Okay, done! So glad I waited for the school redistricting to be settled, per advice from this thread. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to move into Stonebridge.

[Anonymous]

There's no inventory in our neighborhood, even in a current "bad" school district, so it's not really a problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, that's a very small boundary and they would have to create an island in order to bus kids from Churchill to RM. I say unlikely Potomac will be effected by boundary changes for the sake of diversity, because very little available in terms of adjacent clusters. You would be safe to invest in Potomac.

No way. The only way that Potomac will not be impacted by diversity bussing would be if all the incumbent BOE members up for re-election are voted out and the MCCPTA/MCPS/MOCO Council endorsed candidates do not win.

First - MCPS has not problem creating islands or gerrymandering boundaries to achieve whatever its current goal is and if diversity is it then RM or Rockville High School will get Potomac kids. Second - MCPS is vindictive. They hate that Potomac parents are objecting to the county wide diversity boundary study. They will get even. Third - there is no way if the Silver Spring crowd gets re-elected that Churchill and Whitman will stay as they are now. These two schools are THE target and the envy, hatred and obsession with these schools from the SS crowd is crazy.

There really is not any safe place in MOCO. Even the UMC neighborhoods in the DCC which for whatever reason thinks they are immune to getting rezoned to a lower performing school will be impacted -if the initiative does not get stopped. The only things likely to stop it are election consequences or a case getting up to the SC.

+1

It's funny how the wealthiest people feel the most victimized. You all really think you are the center of the universe. It's kind of hilarious. They are not going to send SS students to Whitman (by the way, I went to Whitman, and I would not pay an extra couple hundred thousand to send my child there, but do what you like). They are probably going to send some Walter Johnson students to Einstein. They are probably going to look at other opportunities to get some more balance in adjacent clusters (e.g Diamond ES and Brown Station ES are right next to each other but one has a 10% FARMS rate and the other has a 70% FARMS rate). They are not going to bus students to the other side of the county.

I don't feel victimized, but we bought our very modest house mainly because it's within walking distance of Hoover/Churchill. We aren't wealthy and our neighbors aren't either - houses in my neighborhood are 600-800K, most people have 2-3 kids, and I can't imagine they can afford dropping 6 figures on privates. The Potomac people you're thinking off - the ones living in million plus dollar homes - don't send their kids to public school.

If we are having to put the kids on the bus to go miles and miles away instead, we will simply move.

Most people cannot afford a $600-800k home. Please get a reality check. If you are in walking distance of the school your home is not going to get rezoned.

I grew up in poverty and I'm aware of my privilege. But in MoCo, I'm pretty sure most people are paying that much for a house. A SFH in decent shape that's zoned for Einstein is going to cost over a half million. A quick search on Redfin shows me that many of the houses are the very same $600K+.

exactly. Acting like people dropping 600-800K is gross privilege shows lack of knowledge of this area. This is a basic price for a house here sadly. And like PP said the people in the multimillion dollar homes do not send their kids to public with the povvos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory in our neighborhood, even in a current "bad" school district, so it's not really a problem.

Presumably some pickings will open up during buying season, which is when I plan to upgrade from my current not-great district. Obviously not an ideal time to be buying a home and gunning for a good district, but what can ya do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would wait at least 3 years and see what happens or be mentally prepared to lose 10%-20% of the homes value in a short time period. There are too many negatives in MOCO. The budget shortfall and no way to increase revenues is an even bigger problem than rezoning.

On the rezoning, very few areas will be "safe". MCPS clusters cover large geographic areas and few, if any schools are more than two clusters away from a low ranked school. Its fine for MCPS to say that it is not going to bus kids across the county from Poolesville to Kennedy but there are many moves from adjacent and second school over adjacent clusters that can send values tumbling. The neighborhoods in Paint Branch were not the closest or geographically adjacent to SV but the cluster was adjacent. Those residents were taken by surprise that their area is now an island feeding into a much lower ranked school. If MCPS is going to achieve an SES balance of getting schools into a 30% or 40% FARMS then its going to have to rezone by reaching deeper into "adjacent" clusters to move UMC neighborhoods north and/or east.

Okay, done! So glad I waited for the school redistricting to be settled, per advice from this thread. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to move into Stonebridge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, it would be a terrible investment right now to guess wrong. On the other side, I assume prices will soften up, so if you guess correctly, you will come out ahead.

Try to estimate how much of the purchase price consists of the school premium. Try to buy a good enough deal that someone would pay that much for that house just for the location, if the schools are reassigned. It may take you a while to find that one property, but eventually you will. It may not look exactly like you envisioned, but it will be a good, solid purchase.

This thread is gold and exactly why you never take advice from the pearl clutching worrywarts on this forum.

Someone making $250k would have bought a “sensible” $300,000 condo so they wouldn’t be “house poor” in a crappy school district and be frozen out of the housing market if they listened to the fools on here in 2019-2020.

[Anonymous]

Man, imagine deciding to wait, in 2019-2020, on buying a 600k house in good school disctrict with interest rates around 4%.

And then coming back in 2023 and realizing what a horrible mistake that was

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Spouse and I were considering moving up houses in Bethesda next year, but the brewing school redistricting mess has us a little spooked. Are there areas of Bethesda that are more likely to emerge unscathed? We would be fine with Whitman or BCC but wouldn't want to buy an expensive home only to have our kids riding a bus to some school that is farther away than that.

Should we just wait it out and buy only when the new boundaries are set and final?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wouldn't touch real estate with a 39.5ft pole until it's settled. You wanna lose $100-200k overnight?

If the OP didn’t buy in 2019 and is still waffling about where to buy now, OP is out WAY more than $100-$200K.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wouldn't touch real estate with a 39.5ft pole until it's settled. You wanna lose $100-200k overnight?

If the OP didn’t buy in 2019 and is still waffling about where to buy now, OP is out WAY more than $100-$200K.

Easy. That 600-800k home is now 1 million.

And its not just a difference of 200-400k.

If they want to pull the trigger on that same home, they have to borrow more at a much higher interest rate.

Sitting out and waiting in 2019 could potentially cost OP close to a 1 million.

As a different PP noted, this is why you don't take advice from anonymous curmudgeons on an internet board. Buy the house that's right for you and don't try to time the market

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wouldn't touch real estate with a 39.5ft pole until it's settled. You wanna lose $100-200k overnight?

If the OP didn’t buy in 2019 and is still waffling about where to buy now, OP is out WAY more than $100-$200K.

Easy. That 600-800k home is now 1 million.

And its not just a difference of 200-400k.

If they want to pull the trigger on that same home, they have to borrow more at a much higher interest rate.

Sitting out and waiting in 2019 could potentially cost OP close to a 1 million.

As a different PP noted, this is why you don't take advice from anonymous curmudgeons on an internet board. Buy the house that's right for you and don't try to time the market

Were there $600k homes in Bethesda in 2019?

[Anonymous]

School redistricting will eventually exact its price on homeowners who get moved to what is perceived to be a less desirable school cluster, but unless the redistricting is imminent it is pointless to put your life on hold waiting for it to happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:School redistricting will eventually exact its price on homeowners who get moved to what is perceived to be a less desirable school cluster, but unless the redistricting is imminent it is pointless to put your life on hold waiting for it to happen.

No it won’t. Your DC is not going to be the only person moving to a new school. All of their peers from your well regarded school district will be moving as well, which will raise the GS scores of what was previously a subpar (by DCUM standards) school. If Einstein is a 5 and a bunch of UMC ESs get zoned to it, it will increase to a 6 or 7 because of that and it will cease being a subpar school by DCUM standards. People on here are making it out like people from 8 GS HSs are being rezoned to 1 GS schools when that’s not the case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wouldn't touch real estate with a 39.5ft pole until it's settled. You wanna lose $100-200k overnight?

If the OP didn’t buy in 2019 and is still waffling about where to buy now, OP is out WAY more than $100-$200K.

Easy. That 600-800k home is now 1 million.

And its not just a difference of 200-400k.

If they want to pull the trigger on that same home, they have to borrow more at a much higher interest rate.

Sitting out and waiting in 2019 could potentially cost OP close to a 1 million.

As a different PP noted, this is why you don't take advice from anonymous curmudgeons on an internet board. Buy the house that's right for you and don't try to time the market

Were there $600k homes in Bethesda in 2019?

Yes, 20 of them sold for less than $600K, some but not all of which were teardowns. Many more between $600K and $700K many of which seemed perfectly livable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:School redistricting will eventually exact its price on homeowners who get moved to what is perceived to be a less desirable school cluster, but unless the redistricting is imminent it is pointless to put your life on hold waiting for it to happen.

No it won’t. Your DC is not going to be the only person moving to a new school. All of their peers from your well regarded school district will be moving as well, which will raise the GS scores of what was previously a subpar (by DCUM standards) school. If Einstein is a 5 and a bunch of UMC ESs get zoned to it, it will increase to a 6 or 7 because of that and it will cease being a subpar school by DCUM standards. People on here are making it out like people from 8 GS HSs are being rezoned to 1 GS schools when that’s not the case.

Einstein is already a 7.