Ward 2/3 High School proposal in the NW Current

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You have to take those numbers about Deal and Hardy grads going to Wilson as minimum floors, rather than actual percentages. If you look at the DME materials, you will see 15% of Wilson grads have no data, and another 10% are from "other" schools. Many of the "no data" students might be from Deal, or the Deal boundary area. Many of the "other" category might have come from private schools in the Deal enrollment area. My point is that we have a big 25% swath of Wilson population that we don't know where they come from. That's a lot of uncertainty.

I think we have to assume that the statement in bold is false, if we are to trust the data at all. It's the only data we have available. I would assume that the stated number from Deal to Wilson includes all students who came from Deal to Wilson. You are correct that it won't include all students in the Deal boundary, for example Woodley park residents who are IB for Deal but went to Adams before Wilson.

I think it is unrealistic to assume that a lot of people IB for Deal are going private or charter for MS but then attending Wilson, given that Deal has a Great Schools rating of 8/10 and Wilson 6/10. It would seem rational to do the opposite: Deal and then private for HS. If you can point to data then I'll stand corrected, but this seems unlikely to be a very common choice.

I agree with your general point, especially the way you are viewing overcrowding as not an immediate problem. I don't have any data to offer, but anecdotally, I know of a few cases of students inbounds for Deal and Wilson attending charters for elementary and middle school, but switching to Wilson because of the sports opportunities. However, this is very few and I am pretty sure that you are correct that overall this is a small number.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The data shows that Deal sent about 50% of its graduating class to Wilson last year, despite being a feeder to Wilson. SWW is one fifth the size of Wilson, but it takes its share of Deal grads.

Which, I think, proves that you cannot just add the Deal and Hardy classes to predict the Wilson class, my original point.

You should discount the Deal class by a factor of 0.5, and the Hardy class by whatever factor, to make a proper estimate.

But what that shows is the vulnerability of Wilson to small swings in popularity. If Deal goes to 60% Wilson is crushed. The big increase in enrollment at Deal was due more to increase popularity than increased population in the in-boundary schools.

If Deal goes to 60% that's 30-40 more students at Wilson. Let's not get carried away.

No, that's per grade. Deal is 437 per grade. An extra 10% means 43 more students, per grade. That means 160 more students at Wilson, simply because Deal went from 50% to 60% take-up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You have to take those numbers about Deal and Hardy grads going to Wilson as minimum floors, rather than actual percentages. If you look at the DME materials, you will see 15% of Wilson grads have no data, and another 10% are from "other" schools. Many of the "no data" students might be from Deal, or the Deal boundary area. Many of the "other" category might have come from private schools in the Deal enrollment area. My point is that we have a big 25% swath of Wilson population that we don't know where they come from. That's a lot of uncertainty.

I think we have to assume that the statement in bold is false, if we are to trust the data at all. It's the only data we have available. I would assume that the stated number from Deal to Wilson includes all students who came from Deal to Wilson. You are correct that it won't include all students in the Deal boundary, for example Woodley park residents who are IB for Deal but went to Adams before Wilson.

I think it is unrealistic to assume that a lot of people IB for Deal are going private or charter for MS but then attending Wilson, given that Deal has a Great Schools rating of 8/10 and Wilson 6/10. It would seem rational to do the opposite: Deal and then private for HS. If you can point to data then I'll stand corrected, but this seems unlikely to be a very common choice.

I disagree. The "no data" group absolutely could include Deal or Hardy students. Here is what the sheet says: "No data available on school attended last year" in the SY2012-13 column means that the 9th grader could not be matched to their school attended the year prior because either the students were new to the DC public education system in SY2013-14 or that there is administrative matching error."

[Anonymous]

A lot of quibbling over minutae here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A lot of quibbling over minutae here.

Perhaps, but it's the minutiae that underlie a broader conclusion about Wilson's capacity and the impact of its feeders. According to DCPS data (http://dme.dc.gov/book/student-assignment-and-school-boundaries-review-process/data-sheets), ...

1. Wilson's capacity is 1600, but it's current enrollment is 1696.

2. The capacity problem at Wilson is getting worse. Of the 1696 currently at Wilson, 559 are 9th graders. If the current 9th grade class is representative of future classes at Wilson (in other words, most of those 559 will progress to senior year, and future classes will be about 559), then in just three years, Wilson's total enrollment will be 2236 (140% of capacity).

3. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students living in-bounds for Wilson. Only 54% of Wilson's current students are in-bounds for Wilson. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1207 in-bounds students (i.e., 54% of 2236) at Wilson, which leaves 400 spots for OOB students (whether from feeders or otherwise).

4. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students attending current designated feeders for Wilson. The current designated feeders are Deal, Hardy, and Oyster. Those three combine to make up 332 of the 559 9th graders at Wilson (59%). If we simply assume proportional numbers of the "no data" students at Wilson come from those schools, then it's about 392 of 559 (70%) from the three designated feeders. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1568 feeder students (i.e., 392 x 4 years) at Wilson, which leaves 32 spots for non-feeder students (even those in-bounds).

5. Even if you close off Wilson to all students who are neither in-bounds nor from feeders, then Wilson probably will be over-capacity within three years. (I say "probably" because I see some possibility that if you also limited the feeder middle schools to only in-bounds students, then that might reduce the feeder numbers enough stick to Wilson's capacity number. But I'd need to think more about how to estimate that, using the numbers we have.

Conclusion: We need another high-quality high school besides Wilson, because the cohort of students currently aimed at Wilson just won't fit there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of quibbling over minutae here.

Perhaps, but it's the minutiae that underlie a broader conclusion about Wilson's capacity and the impact of its feeders. According to DCPS data (http://dme.dc.gov/book/student-assignment-and-school-boundaries-review-process/data-sheets), ...

1. Wilson's capacity is 1600, but it's current enrollment is 1696.

2. The capacity problem at Wilson is getting worse. Of the 1696 currently at Wilson, 559 are 9th graders. If the current 9th grade class is representative of future classes at Wilson (in other words, most of those 559 will progress to senior year, and future classes will be about 559), then in just three years, Wilson's total enrollment will be 2236 (140% of capacity).

3. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students living in-bounds for Wilson. Only 54% of Wilson's current students are in-bounds for Wilson. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1207 in-bounds students (i.e., 54% of 2236) at Wilson, which leaves 400 spots for OOB students (whether from feeders or otherwise).

4. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students attending current designated feeders for Wilson. The current designated feeders are Deal, Hardy, and Oyster. Those three combine to make up 332 of the 559 9th graders at Wilson (59%). If we simply assume proportional numbers of the "no data" students at Wilson come from those schools, then it's about 392 of 559 (70%) from the three designated feeders. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1568 feeder students (i.e., 392 x 4 years) at Wilson, which leaves 32 spots for non-feeder students (even those in-bounds).

5. Even if you close off Wilson to all students who are neither in-bounds nor from feeders, then Wilson probably will be over-capacity within three years. (I say "probably" because I see some possibility that if you also limited the feeder middle schools to only in-bounds students, then that might reduce the feeder numbers enough stick to Wilson's capacity number. But I'd need to think more about how to estimate that, using the numbers we have.

Conclusion: We need another high-quality high school besides Wilson, because the cohort of students currently aimed at Wilson just won't fit there.

Just want to add, solutions can also involve grandfathering. For example, if you want to limit to IB, #3 above (this is a reversal of the Rhee policy), then you can grandfather those who are OOB in feeders now. That would result in a temporary overcrowding at Wilson that would abate as the OOB work their way through the system and it slowly becomes more IB.

One thing that confuses me, though, #4, I thought that Wilson had already stopped admitting any direct OOB applicants, and the only OOB students entering 9th grade at Wilson today are coming from one of the feeders? That would seem to solve the problem for the long term, because the spots at the feeders are limited so IB will gradually replace OOB as, for example, Hardy gets more popular among IB families. I doubt there are so many people IB for Wilson who didn't send kids to Deal, Hardy or Oyster? Who are all these people and where do they go to MS?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of quibbling over minutae here.

Perhaps, but it's the minutiae that underlie a broader conclusion about Wilson's capacity and the impact of its feeders. According to DCPS data (http://dme.dc.gov/book/student-assignment-and-school-boundaries-review-process/data-sheets), ...

1. Wilson's capacity is 1600, but it's current enrollment is 1696.

2. The capacity problem at Wilson is getting worse. Of the 1696 currently at Wilson, 559 are 9th graders. If the current 9th grade class is representative of future classes at Wilson (in other words, most of those 559 will progress to senior year, and future classes will be about 559), then in just three years, Wilson's total enrollment will be 2236 (140% of capacity).

3. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students living in-bounds for Wilson. Only 54% of Wilson's current students are in-bounds for Wilson. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1207 in-bounds students (i.e., 54% of 2236) at Wilson, which leaves 400 spots for OOB students (whether from feeders or otherwise).

4. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students attending current designated feeders for Wilson. The current designated feeders are Deal, Hardy, and Oyster. Those three combine to make up 332 of the 559 9th graders at Wilson (59%). If we simply assume proportional numbers of the "no data" students at Wilson come from those schools, then it's about 392 of 559 (70%) from the three designated feeders. So by 2016-17, there will be about 1568 feeder students (i.e., 392 x 4 years) at Wilson, which leaves 32 spots for non-feeder students (even those in-bounds).

5. Even if you close off Wilson to all students who are neither in-bounds nor from feeders, then Wilson probably will be over-capacity within three years. (I say "probably" because I see some possibility that if you also limited the feeder middle schools to only in-bounds students, then that might reduce the feeder numbers enough stick to Wilson's capacity number. But I'd need to think more about how to estimate that, using the numbers we have.

Conclusion: We need another high-quality high school besides Wilson, because the cohort of students currently aimed at Wilson just won't fit there.

Just want to add, solutions can also involve grandfathering. For example, if you want to limit to IB, #3 above (this is a reversal of the Rhee policy), then you can grandfather those who are OOB in feeders now. That would result in a temporary overcrowding at Wilson that would abate as the OOB work their way through the system and it slowly becomes more IB.

One thing that confuses me, though, #4, I thought that Wilson had already stopped admitting any direct OOB applicants, and the only OOB students entering 9th grade at Wilson today are coming from one of the feeders? That would seem to solve the problem for the long term, because the spots at the feeders are limited so IB will gradually replace OOB as, for example, Hardy gets more popular among IB families. I doubt there are so many people IB for Wilson who didn't send kids to Deal, Hardy or Oyster? Who are all these people and where do they go to MS?

I don't know if this is very clear - what I am trying to say is, if we fix the size of the MS feeder classes now, and if Wilson has enough room for those feeders, that would seem to solve the problem, no? because there aren't many people who are IB for Wilson who don't send kids to one of Deal, Hardy or Adams. Maybe some at the odd charter but not many.

So what will happen is IB gradually replace OOB at the feeders over a number of years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing that confuses me, though, #4, I thought that Wilson had already stopped admitting any direct OOB applicants, and the only OOB students entering 9th grade at Wilson today are coming from one of the feeders? That would seem to solve the problem for the long term, because the spots at the feeders are limited so IB will gradually replace OOB as, for example, Hardy gets more popular among IB families. I doubt there are so many people IB for Wilson who didn't send kids to Deal, Hardy or Oyster? Who are all these people and where do they go to MS?

I don't know if this is very clear - what I am trying to say is, if we fix the size of the MS feeder classes now, and if Wilson has enough room for those feeders, that would seem to solve the problem, no? because there aren't many people who are IB for Wilson who don't send kids to one of Deal, Hardy or Adams. Maybe some at the odd charter but not many.

So what will happen is IB gradually replace OOB at the feeders over a number of years.

If I understand you correctly, I think you're misunderstanding #4. Item 4 above was just reflecting designated feeder populations, and NOT the current in-bounds areas for Wilson that aren't part of a feeder middle school. In fact, there are lots of people who are in-bounds for Wilson who are OOB for Deal/Hardy/Oyster/Adams. Take a look at these two maps showing the middle school boundaries and the Wilson boundary ...
http://www.dc.gov/DCPS/Files/downloads/SCHOOLS/Boundary%20Maps%20-%202009/DCPS-Attendance-Zones-Middle-Schools-September-2009.pdf
http://dcps.dc.gov/DCPS/Files/downloads/SCHOOLS/Boundary%20Maps%20-%202009/DCPS-Attendance-Zones-High-Schools-September-2009.pdf

Here are neighborhoods that are in-bounds for the feeder middle schools, but OOB for Wilson: Colonial Village, Shepherd Park, 16th Street Heights.

Here are neighborhoods that are in-bounds for Wilson, but OOB for the feeder middle schools: Dupont Circle, West End, Foggy Bottom, Penn Quarter, Southwest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One thing that confuses me, though, #4, I thought that Wilson had already stopped admitting any direct OOB applicants, and the only OOB students entering 9th grade at Wilson today are coming from one of the feeders? That would seem to solve the problem for the long term, because the spots at the feeders are limited so IB will gradually replace OOB as, for example, Hardy gets more popular among IB families. I doubt there are so many people IB for Wilson who didn't send kids to Deal, Hardy or Oyster? Who are all these people and where do they go to MS?

I don't know if this is very clear - what I am trying to say is, if we fix the size of the MS feeder classes now, and if Wilson has enough room for those feeders, that would seem to solve the problem, no? because there aren't many people who are IB for Wilson who don't send kids to one of Deal, Hardy or Adams. Maybe some at the odd charter but not many.

So what will happen is IB gradually replace OOB at the feeders over a number of years.

If I understand you correctly, I think you're misunderstanding #4. Item 4 above was just reflecting designated feeder populations, and NOT the current in-bounds areas for Wilson that aren't part of a feeder middle school. In fact, there are lots of people who are in-bounds for Wilson who are OOB for Deal/Hardy/Oyster/Adams. Take a look at these two maps showing the middle school boundaries and the Wilson boundary ...
http://www.dc.gov/DCPS/Files/downloads/SCHOOLS/Boundary%20Maps%20-%202009/DCPS-Attendance-Zones-Middle-Schools-September-2009.pdf
http://dcps.dc.gov/DCPS/Files/downloads/SCHOOLS/Boundary%20Maps%20-%202009/DCPS-Attendance-Zones-High-Schools-September-2009.pdf

Here are neighborhoods that are in-bounds for the feeder middle schools, but OOB for Wilson: Colonial Village, Shepherd Park, 16th Street Heights.

Here are neighborhoods that are in-bounds for Wilson, but OOB for the feeder middle schools: Dupont Circle, West End, Foggy Bottom, Penn Quarter, Southwest.

Sorry, thanks for responding - it was this important fact in bold that I was missing. That's a lot of population density.

But it begs the question, what are these people doing for mS? I would have guessed that they were the ones lotterying in to the various feeders (ES and MS) for Wilson.

[Anonymous]

Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

The logical solution is to make Trogisch principal of Cardozo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

There aren't enough families in Ward 2 to create a neighborhood school. Almost everyone who goes to FS comes from some other neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

There aren't enough families in Ward 2 to create a neighborhood school. Almost everyone who goes to FS comes from some other neighborhood.

The boundaries for FS are pretty big. If they renovate the place and add advanced classes, and maybe more language classes, the in-boundary kids will go there. I know because my kid went there under Rhee, but then the decision-makers wrecked what she was doing, and we bailed. There's always been a lot of potential at FS, but not the will to create the programming necessary to attract large numbers of in-boundary kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

There aren't enough families in Ward 2 to create a neighborhood school. Almost everyone who goes to FS comes from some other neighborhood.

Agreed. They should consider closing FS and moving the neighborhood kids to Hyde. The only thing that divides the two neighborhoods is Rock Creek Park.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Going back to the beginning of this very long thread, Rich Trogisch, principal at FS suggested in the Current article he can create a high school within FS. Presumably, this would give Ward 2 families a close by neighborhood high school. The feeder would obviously be FS middle school and perhaps Hardy which is also in Ward 2. Right now FS feeds to Cardoza. This would remove students from that high school which is currently under enrolled but logic rarely seems to play a role in DCPS decision-making so this could be an option.

The logical solution is to make Trogisch principal of Cardozo.

Too perfect!! Can we get a petition going to that effect?!