Reply to Ward 2/3 High School proposal in the NW Current

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]A lot of quibbling over minutae here.[/quote]
Perhaps, but it's the minutiae that underlie a broader conclusion about Wilson's capacity and the impact of its feeders.  According to DCPS data (http://dme.dc.gov/book/student-assignment-and-school-boundaries-review-process/data-sheets), ...

1. Wilson's capacity is 1600, but it's current enrollment is 1696.

2. The capacity problem at Wilson is getting worse.  Of the 1696 currently at Wilson, 559 are 9th graders.  If the current 9th grade class is representative of future classes at Wilson (in other words, most of those 559 will progress to senior year, and future classes will be about 559), then in just three years, Wilson's total enrollment will be 2236 (140% of capacity).

3. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students living in-bounds for Wilson.  Only 54% of Wilson's current students are in-bounds for Wilson.  So by 2016-17, there will be about 1207 in-bounds students (i.e., 54% of 2236) at Wilson, which leaves 400 spots for OOB students (whether from feeders or otherwise).

4. The capacity problem could be solved if Wilson is limited to students attending current designated feeders for Wilson.  The current designated feeders are Deal, Hardy, and Oyster.  Those three combine to make up 332 of the 559 9th graders at Wilson (59%).  If we simply assume proportional numbers of the "no data" students at Wilson come from those schools, then it's about 392 of 559 (70%) from the three designated feeders.  So by 2016-17, there will be about 1568 feeder students (i.e., 392 x 4 years) at Wilson, which leaves 32 spots for non-feeder students (even those in-bounds).

5. Even if you close off Wilson to all students who are neither in-bounds nor from feeders, then Wilson probably will be over-capacity within three years.  (I say "probably" because I see some possibility that if you also limited the feeder middle schools to only in-bounds students, then that might reduce the feeder numbers enough stick to Wilson's capacity number. But I'd need to think more about how to estimate that, using the numbers we have.

Conclusion: We need another high-quality high school besides Wilson, because the cohort of students currently aimed at Wilson just won't fit there.[/quote]

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