Ward 2/3 High School proposal in the NW Current

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:
I think it is harsh to cavalierly expect other families to be moved around like chess pieces on a board while not expecting the same for yourself. If you start with the goal that no boundary should be shifted to a lower performing school, you may not achieve that goal. But, you will come a lot closer than you will if you don't even try.

So does this goal include ensuring that Southwest remains zoned for Wilson?

I personally don't have the opinion that any address in the city should remained eternally zoned for any specific school. My position is that if an address is removed from the Wilson boundary, it should be placed inbounds for an equal or better option. I hold that position for Crestwood and I hold it for Southwest.

I understand (and support) that sentiment, but what gives if something has to give? If {Deal, Wilson} is overcrowded and DCPS needs to remove students but the "equal or better option" does not yet exist, what should be done? Your position seems to be to do nothing in that case. Again, I understand your stance, but that denies the possibility that something [b]needs [/b]to be done. (This is mostly hypothetical, at this point.)

I believe that Deal and Wilson overcrowding can be managed for a sufficient length of time to allow for the development of suitable alternatives. There is also an expression along the lines of "there is nothing like necessity to focus the mind". It's likely that as we get closer to an actual crisis, solutions will become more apparent than they are now. There could also be a bit of self-balancing as families decide that alternatives are preferable to an overcrowded Deal or Wilson.

Agreed - this is what I was trying to say at 14:39. It seems to me that the crowding is not ideal but nor is it a crisis that should lead to people being re-assigned to a struggling MS/HS.

So we do what? Continue with a two tiered system until there is literally a Shirt-Waist type fire at Wilson? Then everyone laments, "If that school hadn't been so crowded...."

I say now is as good a time as ever.

[Anonymous]

Wilson High's current capacity: 1600 students.
Projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1708 students.

Deal MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1310 (about 437 per grade)
Hardy MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 400 (about 133 per grade)

If all Deal and Hardy MS students attend Wilson, Wilson enrollment ((437 + 133)*4) will be 2,280 students. 680 students over its capacity.

Of course, some of Deal and Hardy students may choose other options (SWW, etc.). But this does not include Wilson boundaries outside of its feeder pattern, and it does not take into account that enrollment at Deal and Hardy's feeders have been rising as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wilson High's current capacity: 1600 students.
Projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1708 students.

Deal MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1310 (about 437 per grade)
Hardy MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 400 (about 133 per grade)

If all Deal and Hardy MS students attend Wilson, Wilson enrollment ((437 + 133)*4) will be 2,280 students. 680 students over its capacity.

Of course, some of Deal and Hardy students may choose other options (SWW, etc.). But this does not include Wilson boundaries outside of its feeder pattern, and it does not take into account that enrollment at Deal and Hardy's feeders have been rising as well.

It's great to see someone actually posting numbers up to address the crowding question in a serious way and not just take it as given. Thank you for that.

Among parents I know who are in the cluster, Deal has a better reputation than Wilson. There are very few who say that they don't consider Deal a good option, but there are many who seem to be considering private or application-only or suburbs for HS. Their logic is that HS is too high-stakes to risk it, and after many years of free public education they can stomach 4 years of private tuition or a move to MoCo or Arlington. The common thing I hear among those who would not go private is "we're going to apply to walls and if it doesn't work then we move out of the district".

This is not me saying this, BTW - just what I hear.

I don't have hard data, probably Wilson has some estimates, but I am just saying that simply adding Deal and Hardy together gives a very unrealistic picture of who is likely to attend Wilson.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Wilson High's current capacity: 1600 students.
Projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1708 students.

Deal MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 1310 (about 437 per grade)
Hardy MS projected enrollment in FY14-15: 400 (about 133 per grade)

If all Deal and Hardy MS students attend Wilson, Wilson enrollment ((437 + 133)*4) will be 2,280 students. 680 students over its capacity.

Of course, some of Deal and Hardy students may choose other options (SWW, etc.). But this does not include Wilson boundaries outside of its feeder pattern, and it does not take into account that enrollment at Deal and Hardy's feeders have been rising as well.

It's great to see someone actually posting numbers up to address the crowding question in a serious way and not just take it as given. Thank you for that.

Among parents I know who are in the cluster, Deal has a better reputation than Wilson. There are very few who say that they don't consider Deal a good option, but there are many who seem to be considering private or application-only or suburbs for HS. Their logic is that HS is too high-stakes to risk it, and after many years of free public education they can stomach 4 years of private tuition or a move to MoCo or Arlington. The common thing I hear among those who would not go private is "we're going to apply to walls and if it doesn't work then we move out of the district".

This is not me saying this, BTW - just what I hear.

I don't have hard data, probably Wilson has some estimates, but I am just saying that simply adding Deal and Hardy together gives a very unrealistic picture of who is likely to attend Wilson.

Or a new Western HS

[Anonymous]

No more than 20% of Hardy students go to into Wilson (they go to SWW, Bannaker, Duke Ellington , elsewhere).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No more than 20% of Hardy students go to into Wilson (they go to SWW, Bannaker, Duke Ellington , elsewhere).

Here again, data can help keep us all informed, whereas off-the-cuff claims can mislead us.

Hardy currently has 371 enrolled in grades 6-8 (about 123 per grade). Currently in the 9th grade at Wilson are 86 students who attended Hardy last year. That's about 70% of Hardy's class going to Wilson. Just for comparison's sake, it's 52% for Deal.

Source: http://dme.dc.gov/book/student-assignment-and-school-boundaries-review-process/data-sheets

[Anonymous]

FWIW, 12.5% of Deal went to SWW/McKinley/Ellington. 28% of Hardy went to SWW/McKinley/Ellington/Banneker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As one of the folks posting, I think that is being a little harsh, don't you think Jeff? I am just acknowledging the reality that some folks will be cut out of options that people currently deem as being desirable. We should be working create better options around the city and believe it or not I am. But I have to admit to myself that whatever my small contribution helps come up with, people are more likely going to grudgingly accept rather than openly embrace. The new ideas will be just that at the start. Ideas. And they will require a lot of additional hard work to make them reality during which time we'll still have a lot of uncertainty.

I think it is harsh to cavalierly expect other families to be moved around like chess pieces on a board while not expecting the same for yourself. If you start with the goal that no boundary should be shifted to a lower performing school, you may not achieve that goal. But, you will come a lot closer than you will if you don't even try.

I am not saying that everyone needs to happily embrace their new boundaries. But, if the change is not one that you would find acceptable to yourself, I'm not sure you should be recommending it for others.

+1,000 to all of the above post from Jeff.

To address another poster who said that Catania would have to break his promise if elected, I am not so sure. If you look at his record and what he says, he is very focused on improving school quality and programing options, in all parts of the city.

While it is true that the education and income levels of parents can explain a lot of student achievement, people who actually study and work in education know that programming and teaching can also make a big difference. I think Catania understands this. On DCUM I think the importance of parental "SES" is treated as the be-all-end-all, beyond what actual research and experience would suggest.

For example, did you know that Wards 7 and 8 together account for about 45% of the students in DCPS (yes, almost half), and yet there is not a single dual language school in those wards? There is a lot that can be done to improve options even with the current boundaries more or less as they are. I say more or less because there are parts of the city where schools were closed in the last 5 years and people may need to be newly assigned, but that is about all that really needs doing urgently. The rest is really up for debate and I think Catania has the right idea.

"actual research" suggests that SES is a huge influence. Education for low SES kids needs to be addressed no matter what the boundaries are.

[Anonymous]

The common thing I hear among those who would not go private is "we're going to apply to walls and if it doesn't work then we move out of the district".

This is not me saying this, BTW - just what I hear.

That is weird, because Wilson HS generally posts up a better outcome (SAT, Top 50 University) than SWW for the student who is the child of parents who could easily afford tuition at an independent school or a home in Arlington.

In any case, far, far more kids from CCDC, AU Park, Glover Park, Friendship Hts and environs attend Wilson over Walls. The sticky on the DC Schools forum has a link showing this.

So I guess all your friends who you hear from -- the ones who can't stomach Wilson and will pull up stakes if they don't get into SWW -- must not live in Ward 3, PP. Correct?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The common thing I hear among those who would not go private is "we're going to apply to walls and if it doesn't work then we move out of the district".

This is not me saying this, BTW - just what I hear.

That is weird, because Wilson HS generally posts up a better outcome (SAT, Top 50 University) than SWW for the student who is the child of parents who could easily afford tuition at an independent school or a home in Arlington.

In any case, far, far more kids from CCDC, AU Park, Glover Park, Friendship Hts and environs attend Wilson over Walls. The sticky on the DC Schools forum has a link showing this.

So I guess all your friends who you hear from -- the ones who can't stomach Wilson and will pull up stakes if they don't get into SWW -- must not live in Ward 3, PP. Correct?

Some are in ward 3, also ward 2. I bet some will stay despite what they say. Some are already in the 'burbs. Yes, that still happens

The data shows that Deal sent about 50% of its graduating class to Wilson last year, despite being a feeder to Wilson. SWW is one fifth the size of Wilson, but it takes its share of Deal grads.

Which, I think, proves that you cannot just add the Deal and Hardy classes to predict the Wilson class, my original point.

You should discount the Deal class by a factor of 0.5, and the Hardy class by whatever factor, to make a proper estimate.

So, sorry for offending you, but the point remains.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
The data shows that Deal sent about 50% of its graduating class to Wilson last year, despite being a feeder to Wilson. SWW is one fifth the size of Wilson, but it takes its share of Deal grads.

Which, I think, proves that you cannot just add the Deal and Hardy classes to predict the Wilson class, my original point.

You should discount the Deal class by a factor of 0.5, and the Hardy class by whatever factor, to make a proper estimate.

But what that shows is the vulnerability of Wilson to small swings in popularity. If Deal goes to 60% Wilson is crushed. The big increase in enrollment at Deal was due more to increase popularity than increased population in the in-boundary schools.

[Anonymous]

You have to take those numbers about Deal and Hardy grads going to Wilson as minimum floors, rather than actual percentages. If you look at the DME materials, you will see 15% of Wilson grads have no data, and another 10% are from "other" schools. Many of the "no data" students might be from Deal, or the Deal boundary area. Many of the "other" category might have come from private schools in the Deal enrollment area. My point is that we have a big 25% swath of Wilson population that we don't know where they come from. That's a lot of uncertainty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The common thing I hear among those who would not go private is "we're going to apply to walls and if it doesn't work then we move out of the district".

This is not me saying this, BTW - just what I hear.

That is weird, because Wilson HS generally posts up a better outcome (SAT, Top 50 University) than SWW for the student who is the child of parents who could easily afford tuition at an independent school or a home in Arlington.

In any case, far, far more kids from CCDC, AU Park, Glover Park, Friendship Hts and environs attend Wilson over Walls. The sticky on the DC Schools forum has a link showing this.

So I guess all your friends who you hear from -- the ones who can't stomach Wilson and will pull up stakes if they don't get into SWW -- must not live in Ward 3, PP. Correct?

Not the PP, but I would imagine a lot of students at SWW come from the Hill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
The data shows that Deal sent about 50% of its graduating class to Wilson last year, despite being a feeder to Wilson. SWW is one fifth the size of Wilson, but it takes its share of Deal grads.

Which, I think, proves that you cannot just add the Deal and Hardy classes to predict the Wilson class, my original point.

You should discount the Deal class by a factor of 0.5, and the Hardy class by whatever factor, to make a proper estimate.

But what that shows is the vulnerability of Wilson to small swings in popularity. If Deal goes to 60% Wilson is crushed. The big increase in enrollment at Deal was due more to increase popularity than increased population in the in-boundary schools.

If Deal goes to 60% that's 30-40 more students at Wilson. Let's not get carried away.

I am not intending to insult Wilson but there really are a lot of people who, even today after all its improvement, don't see it as an acceptable option and plan to do something else after Deal or other MS. The data clearly support this. Many of these people live in Wards 2 and 3 (the expensive wards).

Yet there are others in those wards and in other wards who consider it a privilege to attend Wilson. So let's not cut out these others, who would jump at the chance to go to Wilson, just to solve an overcrowding crisis that hasn't even happened yet and is predicated on the assumption that a lot of Sidwell, Walls or Bethesda-bound parents are suddenly going to come to Jesus and enroll at Wilson. Let's solve that problem if and when we come to it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You have to take those numbers about Deal and Hardy grads going to Wilson as minimum floors, rather than actual percentages. If you look at the DME materials, you will see 15% of Wilson grads have no data, and another 10% are from "other" schools. Many of the "no data" students might be from Deal, or the Deal boundary area. Many of the "other" category might have come from private schools in the Deal enrollment area. My point is that we have a big 25% swath of Wilson population that we don't know where they come from. That's a lot of uncertainty.

I think we have to assume that the statement in bold is false, if we are to trust the data at all. It's the only data we have available. I would assume that the stated number from Deal to Wilson includes all students who came from Deal to Wilson. You are correct that it won't include all students in the Deal boundary, for example Woodley park residents who are IB for Deal but went to Adams before Wilson.

I think it is unrealistic to assume that a lot of people IB for Deal are going private or charter for MS but then attending Wilson, given that Deal has a Great Schools rating of 8/10 and Wilson 6/10. It would seem rational to do the opposite: Deal and then private for HS. If you can point to data then I'll stand corrected, but this seems unlikely to be a very common choice.