He won as a New Yorker and lost as a Floridian. |
I don’t think the GOP really cares what the narrative is as long as it is distracting enough to cover them looting the public purse and lining their pockets with lobbying and misdirected private funds. In that respect, you are correct that media’s interest in getting clicks lines up well with the GOP’s desire to spark outrage on culture issues. But I don’t think it’s an instructional thing. And yes the pussyfooting around Trump was disgraceful. But I always thought that it was and is more of a desire not to lose access for reporting. It’s not good though. |
Donald J. Trump |
Many people make the mistake and think that Youngkin won the election in 2021. In reality, McAuliffe lost the election. McAuliffe was a bad candidate that happened to espouse several very controversial and unpopular policies, ones that turned the moderate vote against him. Youngkin happened to be the beneficiary of McAuliffe's very bad campaign and candidacy. And Youngkin's first two years in office clearly showed that he was not a good candidate either. Last night's results show that Virginians have turned purple and are not going back to being red. The nation is very similar. There are large pockets of MAGA voters and cities full of progressive voters. And both groups have become more extreme and vocal. But they are still only about 30% and 35% respectively. The nation has has a very large and growing middle group of moderate voters spread all around the country. The number of voters who have left registering for a given political party and declaring themselves Independant has grown and is now the largest group of voters out there. And Youngkin has already shown that he campaigns as moderate, but governs as a MAGA. You can't put that cat back in the bag and he's essentially killed any national aspirations he might have. |
You tell the truth! These people are trying to destroy the country, because they are. Installing a theocracy, getting rid of our non political government, supporting corruption - these things are all antithetical to what America is supposed to be. Stop kid gloving people who have already attacked the country once. Here’s a great example of the media doing the work of the GOP. I think we’d all agree that the GOP’s agenda was rebuked pretty hard yesterday, right? Not according to CNN! “5 Takeaways from new polls that reveal Biden’s challenges and Trump’s potential victory path.” That’s literally the headline. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/08/politics/trump-biden-election-cnn-poll-takeaways/index.html “A big night for Democrats Tuesday in state races only highlighted struggles Joe Biden faces in 2024 following polls suggesting he’s far less popular than his party.” I mean what? You all can say the media isn’t working for the GOP, but I won’t believe you. |
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Polling data for the Kentucky governor's race consistently indicated Beshear as the favorite to win by at least a few percentage points and Beshear did exactly that. Data from those same polling sources have been indicating a very tight race between Trump and Biden with Trump favored by a small margin overall and also favored in some key swing states. Some media sources are suggesting this should be a concern for Democrats and that is fair and newsworthy reporting in my opinion. Should we just ignore the 2024 election polling data just because the data is not to our liking? Should we not be concerned about Biden's lack of support nationally relative to strong showings by Dem candidates in state and local races? Dems are performing better than usual in many places and in many races but they aren't necessarily out performing the pre-election polling data. Why should we assume Biden will outperform the polling data by enough to comfortably beat Trump? The support for Biden isn't currently aligned with the support for most other Democratic candidates and that should be a concern for Democrats. But yes of course, "fake news", "fake news"! |
Beshear outperformed his polling data (the last one had it in a dead heat), and flipped regions he had lost in 2019. He certainly outperformed his numbers from 2019. Polling has increasingly become meaningless, and polling a year out from an election, especially so. Let's see where we are, in September/October of next year. Personally, I think that Dobbs will be the gift that keeps on giving, and swing state voters will not choose to put back into power the guy who gave us that supreme court (among other things). |
Like I said elsewhere, polling at this time last year all told us we should be preparing for a President DeSantis. His wife was practically measuring the drapes. |
Nate Cohn had a piece about why these off year elections differ from the polls and yet the polls from last weekend can still be accurate. I just hope people realize what's at stake next year and vote Biden even if he's not their preferred candidate given the alternative. Similarly, maybe yesterday's results will create an enthusiasm gap for the more casual MAGA. Republicans apparently were focused on what went wrong and noted "hardline views on abortions are not supported by the general public, as well as other issues which are damaging the party's 2024 election hopes" https://www.newsweek.com/maga-gop-election-defeats-ohio-kentucky-virginia-1841869. It seems Democrats need to keep it front and center next year. And yes, that's still a lifetime in politics in terms of what could happen. |