All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays.

Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%.

Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The test has changed - it's easier to get a good score now. They also allow superscoring, which means if you take the test 3 times, they will only use your best score from each section of the test. For the ACT, this is particularly relevant since there are 4 sections.

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

When did they start allowing superscoring? I took the SAT in 1985 and didn't know if was an option.

Probably 20 or 30 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays.

Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%.

Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance.

That is not how it works. They are not independent events. They all rely on the same application, which may or may not be good enough for any of those schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When applying to colleges and universities, applying to at least 3 safeties is the most important. If a student accurately identifies & applies to 3 safeties, then the number of apps to other schools should not be a concern.

If up to me, I would limit students to 12 applications although 10 is also a reasonable limit.

With high stats kids being yield protected from safeties, it doesn't seem like safeties exist anymore.

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

Just FYI, you (and several others) are quoting posts from a year ago. A troll bumped an old thread.

So what? The discussion will be relevant each year. Especially when so many feel their "high stats" kid are entitled to a T25 admission and couldn't possibly find any "safeties" they like/would fit in with the student population.

If you have a truly balanced list and all the schools are ones you want to attend, your kid will be fine and will get a few target acceptances and most of their safeties. Majority of time, when that does not happen it means they didn't have an accurate list. Most Schools ranked 25-50 are NOT safeties, they are targets at best (and reaches for some).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays.

Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%.

Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance.

Nope. Statistics don't work like that. (Remember, if you flip a penny 5 times and get tails, that doesn't change the next flip is still 50/50)
The admisison chances aren't all independent variables. A kid with a 2.0 whose highest math class is algebra 2 has a near 0% change of admission at all of the schools. Taylor Swift has a near 100% chance of admission at all of the schools. Your kid looks the same at nearly every school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

My high stats kid was deferred from a state school that does not yield protect and has a a 70% acceptance rate. I don't think safeties exist anymore.

So please list the state school, your kid's stats and major. Because sure, the school may have a 70% acceptance rate overall, but if you kid wanted CS/Engineering and their acceptance rate is 20%, it is NOT a safety school, it's a reach/maybe a target for a few kids.

I highly doubt your kid was rejected from their in-state school with 70% acceptance rate if your kid's stats were 75%+ and your kid wanted to major in SS/humanities/a non-impacted or direct admit major. But if that is not true, then please provide more details.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays.

Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%.

Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance.

Nope, school A has nothing to do with School B. Applying to more schools does not change your chances of acceptance at one school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

My high stats kid was deferred from a state school that does not yield protect and has a a 70% acceptance rate. I don't think safeties exist anymore.

So please list the state school, your kid's stats and major. Because sure, the school may have a 70% acceptance rate overall, but if you kid wanted CS/Engineering and their acceptance rate is 20%, it is NOT a safety school, it's a reach/maybe a target for a few kids.

I highly doubt your kid was rejected from their in-state school with 70% acceptance rate if your kid's stats were 75%+ and your kid wanted to major in SS/humanities/a non-impacted or direct admit major. But if that is not true, then please provide more details.

NP- Are you always an insufferable know-it-all? Or do you just play one on DCUM?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

My high stats kid was deferred from a state school that does not yield protect and has a a 70% acceptance rate. I don't think safeties exist anymore.

So please list the state school, your kid's stats and major. Because sure, the school may have a 70% acceptance rate overall, but if you kid wanted CS/Engineering and their acceptance rate is 20%, it is NOT a safety school, it's a reach/maybe a target for a few kids.

I highly doubt your kid was rejected from their in-state school with 70% acceptance rate if your kid's stats were 75%+ and your kid wanted to major in SS/humanities/a non-impacted or direct admit major. But if that is not true, then please provide more details.

I've mentioned it here before, but Auburn engineering deferred him. 1490/34, 3.9 unweighted, 4.4 weighted, excellent EC's. Was accepted EA to a much more prestigious school with a 15% acceptance rate and RD to Purdue engineering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

My high stats kid was deferred from a state school that does not yield protect and has a a 70% acceptance rate. I don't think safeties exist anymore.

So please list the state school, your kid's stats and major. Because sure, the school may have a 70% acceptance rate overall, but if you kid wanted CS/Engineering and their acceptance rate is 20%, it is NOT a safety school, it's a reach/maybe a target for a few kids.

I highly doubt your kid was rejected from their in-state school with 70% acceptance rate if your kid's stats were 75%+ and your kid wanted to major in SS/humanities/a non-impacted or direct admit major. But if that is not true, then please provide more details.

I've mentioned it here before, but Auburn engineering deferred him. 1490/34, 3.9 unweighted, 4.4 weighted, excellent EC's. Was accepted EA to a much more prestigious school with a 15% acceptance rate and RD to Purdue engineering.

Sorry, EA Purdue engineering as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think people are missing the math on reaches.

My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in:

25%
20%
20%
15%
15%

So chance of rejection:
75%
80%
80%
85%
85%

Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35%

We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches.

And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays.

Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%.

Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance.

That is not how it works. They are not independent events. They all rely on the same application, which may or may not be good enough for any of those schools.

Sorry but you are wrong. While I agree you cannot use acceptance rates and game theory, they are 100% entirely independent events.

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the chances of the occurrence of the other event.

https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/statistically_independent_events#

Whether or not you are accepted to Harvard does not affect whether you are accepted to Yale. Entirely independent events. An example of a dependent event is the odds in pulling any particular card from a deck of 52. With each card you draw, the odds change in favor of the next card being the one sought, making them dependent events.

HOWEVER: The reason you can't use game theory and acceptance rate is because the acceptance rate IS NOT the odds a individual will be accepted at that college. For any applicant, their odds might be 0% at all eight ivies, which means the game theory odds of acceptance are also 0%.

No applicant can know what their actual odds of acceptance are at any college, so game theory/odds cannot be used, ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, I have a senior that is waiting on results. Like you, I started lurking on this forum and CC starting when kid was a sophomore. Here is what I have gathered. I think it is a combination of multiple factors: (1) Covid and resulting test optional. This significantly increased number of applications and kids who may normally not have applied 6-7 years back, applied. So some kids that may not have gotten in 6-7 years back got in and that means that the denied kids had to choose their safeties. (2) Increased focus on First Gen, and more diverse cohort. I think test optional is a bigger impact and this is secondary. (3) To keep up, since highly selective schools are now a lottery, kids are applying to more schools and this is exacerbates the problem.

I think some schools may go back to requiring tests. It is also possible that due to chatGPT, colleges may rethink or reformat the essays. It will be interesting to see how the next few years will play out.

Regardless, if you aim for T50-150 there is plenty of good colleges for everyone. We should encourage kids to dream but not get hung up on one dream school. Choose a broad range and set expectations with kid accordingly.

Ditto and I agree with this. As someone else mentioned, parents complain every year, but the data shows that schools are getting more applications year over year which makes each new cycle more cutthroat than the one before.

+1 CU Boulder and Clemson were safeties a couple of years ago. This year, hardly anyone got in, including kids we know who had either as top choice. Hopefully with a lot of forthcoming shuffling more kids will get in. We just got an email from a state school that they're pushing decision date to 6/1.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When applying to colleges and universities, applying to at least 3 safeties is the most important. If a student accurately identifies & applies to 3 safeties, then the number of apps to other schools should not be a concern.

If up to me, I would limit students to 12 applications although 10 is also a reasonable limit.

With high stats kids being yield protected from safeties, it doesn't seem like safeties exist anymore.

Your kid needs to show interest, convince the safety why they want to attend. Safeties do exist. A school with a 50-60%+ acceptance rate does not just reject all high stats applicants. But your "why School X" essay has to be meaningful, you need to show interest and contact admissions/dept chairs/etc and let them think you actually want to attend. If you do that, you will get into at least 50% of your safeties. And you should have at least 2 safeties that have 75%+ acceptance rates...those do NOT yield protect, they are going to accept your high stats kid, 99% of the time.

Disagree. Not every school has an ILY essay. We're seeing that's not the case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Guys - with so many applications, chances are AI screens your kids app and it’s likely not even read.

The poster above about finding a way - any way - to distinguish the applicant is right.

Weird majors /applications to under the radar programs will be more and more relevant in coming years…..and kids won’t be able to switch so they need to make that major/field of study authentic to their applications

What kind of majors?

[Anonymous]

Everyone I know who applied got into Boulder this year EA