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Reply to "All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think people are missing the math on reaches. My kid is waiting on 5 reach RD schools. College vine says we have the following chances to get in: 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% So chance of rejection: 75% 80% 80% 85% 85% Multiply all the rejection % .75*.8*.8*.85*.835 = 35% We have a 35% chance to be rejected by the 5 remaining reaches. So he’s not counting too much on the reaches. And that’s with a good recommendation and good essays. [/quote] Each school is individual. Your chance of rejection is still 75%, 80, 80, 85 and 85%. Not 35%. [/quote] Nope, you have a 35% chance of being rejected by all of them. Or, a 65% chance of getting at least one acceptance. [/quote] That is not how it works. They are not independent events. They all rely on the same application, which may or may not be good enough for any of those schools.[/quote]
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