The percentages you quoted are from ONE sitting per test year cycle. You can't use those percentages to determine how many kids are in the pool of high scorers each admissions cycle. This is a common mistake that people make on this forum. One big mistake is not accounting for people that took the test multiple times over one or two years AND superscoring. The recent Common App report (2022) provides a better understanding of what is happening: According to the Common App 2022 report, 76,747 applicants applied to universities/colleges with an SAT score >1500 (this includes ACT equivalent scores). 98,498 applicants applied with scores in the 1400-1499 range. Source: https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ca.researc...nt_ResearchBrief.pdf |
Except we can all look at objective information such as numbers of applications received and acceptance rates. It’s a fact that acceptive rates have plummeted over the past three years. |
Even so, there are more than 175,000 freshman seats at T50 schools. What makes it feel so complicated and chaotic is that to access many of those seats you have to live in the right state or play the SCEA/ED1/ED2 game correctly. |
OP, I have a senior that is waiting on results. Like you, I started lurking on this forum and CC starting when kid was a sophomore. Here is what I have gathered. I think it is a combination of multiple factors: (1) Covid and resulting test optional. This significantly increased number of applications and kids who may normally not have applied 6-7 years back, applied. So some kids that may not have gotten in 6-7 years back got in and that means that the denied kids had to choose their safeties. (2) Increased focus on First Gen, and more diverse cohort. I think test optional is a bigger impact and this is secondary. (3) To keep up, since highly selective schools are now a lottery, kids are applying to more schools and this is exacerbates the problem.
I think some schools may go back to requiring tests. It is also possible that due to chatGPT, colleges may rethink or reformat the essays. It will be interesting to see how the next few years will play out. Regardless, if you aim for T50-150 there is plenty of good colleges for everyone. We should encourage kids to dream but not get hung up on one dream school. Choose a broad range and set expectations with kid accordingly. |
That is true in part because kids apply to a ridiculous number of schools. But each year, some people get shut out because they don't make balanced/realistic lists. If you don't believe me, spend time reading postings from past years, which say what a particularly bad year it is for their poor child. The "horror stories" of not getting in anywhere or having to contemplate attending a (God forbid) safety school, with students who are clearly not good enough to sit in class with the likes of their son or daughter. |
Parents say this every year and it’s getting crazier because we are seeing these kids with data at their fingertips all getting pretty good grades in school and have many ways to discover new things they are passionate about. |
"We should encourage kids to dream but not get hung up on one dream school. Choose a broad range and set expectations with kid accordingly."
This has always been the formula for mental health and success. Every year. |
I think some of it is COVID. There were a variety of experiences and grade/testing fallout. Also, there is still residual effect of overenrollments for some in '21 due to deferrals in '20.
I also think there are just more high stats kids for whatever reasons. There will be a decline when population drops in a few years. that may have an effect. I think the erratic nature of the past few years have prompted students to apply to more schools. this generates more rejections even though the pool isn't really bigger. |
Hit submit too soon.
Wanted to add that there is a difference recently in that many schools are receiving many more applications than in previous years. |
OP, you should stop posting now. People are not allowed to be upset about the schools their kids don't get into. People are not allowed to be upset for how much you'll have to spend or how little aid you'll receive. You need to be happy with the scraps you get. And if you're not, this group of harpies will just go full on flamethrower on you. So do yourself a favor, and stop checking this Board and asking these questions/expressing your opinions and feelings. I largely have and just check for giggles mostly, no. And it doesn't disappoint. |
People say this every year because it's been true every year. We can see the acceptance rates going lower, every year. Once in a while, rates are flat or go up for one school or another, but on the whole, for selective colleges (say, top 100 universities), app numbers continue to climb and according, acceptance rates fall.
Test optional did, in fact, expand the pool of "qualified" applicants, where "qualified" is determined by the colleges, which are now accepting students without test scores. Pool of students w/high grades >> Pool of students w/high grades AND high scores |
Ditto and I agree with this. As someone else mentioned, parents complain every year, but the data shows that schools are getting more applications year over year which makes each new cycle more cutthroat than the one before. |
This has been happening for a while and is well-documented. However, most experts agree that the pandemic/TO has significantly exacerbated the problem. Public universities: https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichme...percent%20in%202002. Ivy League: https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2022/5/4/s...ng-admissions-rates/ |
NP - seems like part of what is contributing to this angst is the real change in admissions for VA Tech which was a solid option for most strong NOVA applicants until the last few years. If VT becomes a lottery admit it starts to fell pretty crappy (after already accepting that UVA and W&M are beyond reach). This is especially hard to take when other nearby states prioritize their in-state candidates (NC, FL, GA). Not sure if UMD is marching in the same direction for MD students but sounds like that might be the case. I realize that VA doesn't fund State U's to the same extent as others and therefore they have more freedom on admissions criteria but it is a real shift. |
If you can afford college in a country as rich as the United States, it is not SCRAPS to attend a school ranked higher than 20 by USNWR. Most of the whining is coming from parents facing that "tragedy." Sorry if you resent people putting facts into perspective. |