All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging

[Anonymous]

Is it true that there will be fewer applicants beginning in 2025 ? Based on birth rate stats

[Anonymous]

"There is a potential 10-15% drop in “traditional” incoming college students projected to occur starting in 2025. It is being called the Enrollment Cliff or the Demographic Cliff, but no matter what you call it, higher education will be affected. The 2008 economic recession caused a decline in U.S. birth rates as people either put off starting a family or had fewer kids."

More here: https://www.mongooseresearch.com/blog/preparing-for-the-2025-enrollment-cliff-mongoose

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

The SAT was recentered in 1994 or 1995. Then the writing portion was added, then taken away. The general consensus is that scores are higher now than in the 1990s.

There is research to explain what has happened:

Most of the research is behind paywalls. However, here is a North Carolina report (https://studylib.net/doc/10700128/table-of-contents) and an Education Week article (https://www.edweek.org/education/s-a-t-to-realign-...time-in-half-a-century/1994/06) that explain what happened. The 1995 recentering shifted the average score 80 points on the verbal section and 50 on the math, i.e. students who took the SAT prior to 1995 would score at least 130 points higher if they took it after the recentering. The 2005 changes eliminated content in the test that was considered biased and correlated with IQ tests.

Excerpt:

In 1995, the Educational Testing Service changed the test’s name from the Scholastic Aptitude Test to the Scholastic Assessment Test. ETS aimed to retain the original acronym, while dispelling the numerous objections to the test being called an ‘aptitude’ test. Currently, the test is called the SAT, an anacronym without any specific word association. Also in 1995, the SAT’s score scale was recentered due to increased diversity of the college-bound senior population. The original SAT Verbal and Mathematics scales derived their universal meaning from a 1941 reference group of slightly more than 10,000 test takers, which was much less heterogeneous than the college-bound senior population in 1990. Because the universal meaning of the SAT scores had changed with the shift in the reference population from 1941 to 1990, the scales required recalibration (recentering). Recentering the SAT scales resulted in two major changes: (1) The average scores for both the SAT I Verbal and Mathematics tests were reestablished at about 500 – the midpoint of the 200-800 scale; and (2) Verbal and Mathematics scales were aligned so that Verbal and Mathematics scores could be compared directly. Prior to recentering, Verbal and Mathematics scores could be compared only by looking at percentiles.

In 2005, a new SAT will be administered, which will differ from the current test in three major areas: writing, mathematics, and verbal. A writing test will be included for the first time and will include multiple-choice items, grammar usage questions, and a written essay. The math test will include Algebra II content, and the quantitative comparisons will be eliminated. The Verbal test will be re-named “Critical Reading” and will include the addition of shorter reading passages to the existing long reading passages. Analogies will be eliminated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

DS took the test once. Scored in the 1400's. No paid prepping. UWGPA of 3.9+. Attending an honors program at a university that the typical DCUM'ers would consider a safety for sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it true that there will be fewer applicants beginning in 2025 ? Based on birth rate stats

Peak birth year was 2007. That would be this year’s sophomores and freshman. Absolute numbers of American kids decline after that. But, I’m not sure if there will actually be fewer rich and high-achieving kids. Perhaps those folks continued to pump out kids through the 2010s. It also depends on whether insanely high-achieving and wealthy international students continue to apply.

[Anonymous]

Close to 200,000 kids each year score 1400+ or the equivalent on the ACT. So a 1400 doesn’t mean much anymore. And then you have all the kids applying test.

[Anonymous]

They should recenter the sat to bring the scores down again so a 1500 or 1600 is more meaningful. There’s too much compression at the top. Grades are so random, even within a school. My kid has a math teacher where only one kid in class got an A but the other teacher for same class gave mostly As.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been lurking on this board and College Confidential since DC started freshman year in the fall and I am so shocked and sad for so many of what seem to be stellar students on paper getting deferred or even outright rejected from what used to be deemed "safety' schools. I know we're in a bit of a bubble in the DC area and it can be more competitive trying to get into certain schools from certain school systems (or at least that's what I'm told) but it seems to be especially bad this year? Do you think some of it is a result of COVID with '21 and '22 students taking gap years, and will normalize over time or do you think it will only get worse?

Parents say that every year.. this year is especially bad?? No its been like this

This. Seriously, search back.

People say this EVERY year (even pre-COVID).

It is all about your list.

Applying to a broad range of ELITE schools is not making a balanced list.

98% of the kids who are shut out are to blame (though maybe their parents played a heavy role in the debacle).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"There is a potential 10-15% drop in “traditional” incoming college students projected to occur starting in 2025. It is being called the Enrollment Cliff or the Demographic Cliff, but no matter what you call it, higher education will be affected. The 2008 economic recession caused a decline in U.S. birth rates as people either put off starting a family or had fewer kids."

More here: https://www.mongooseresearch.com/blog/preparing-for-the-2025-enrollment-cliff-mongoose

And yet, I predict that in 2025, someone will post something very similar to OP on DCUM.

[Anonymous]

Safety schools are ones who take the majority of applicants. Otherwise it’s hit or miss as lots of applicants, many who are very similar on the application and limited slots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

The SAT was recentered in 1994 or 1995. Then the writing portion was added, then taken away. The general consensus is that scores are higher now than in the 1990s.

There is research to explain what has happened:

Most of the research is behind paywalls. However, here is a North Carolina report (https://studylib.net/doc/10700128/table-of-contents) and an Education Week article (https://www.edweek.org/education/s-a-t-to-realign-...time-in-half-a-century/1994/06) that explain what happened. The 1995 recentering shifted the average score 80 points on the verbal section and 50 on the math, i.e. students who took the SAT prior to 1995 would score at least 130 points higher if they took it after the recentering. The 2005 changes eliminated content in the test that was considered biased and correlated with IQ tests.

Excerpt:

In 1995, the Educational Testing Service changed the test’s name from the Scholastic Aptitude Test to the Scholastic Assessment Test. ETS aimed to retain the original acronym, while dispelling the numerous objections to the test being called an ‘aptitude’ test. Currently, the test is called the SAT, an anacronym without any specific word association. Also in 1995, the SAT’s score scale was recentered due to increased diversity of the college-bound senior population. The original SAT Verbal and Mathematics scales derived their universal meaning from a 1941 reference group of slightly more than 10,000 test takers, which was much less heterogeneous than the college-bound senior population in 1990. Because the universal meaning of the SAT scores had changed with the shift in the reference population from 1941 to 1990, the scales required recalibration (recentering). Recentering the SAT scales resulted in two major changes: (1) The average scores for both the SAT I Verbal and Mathematics tests were reestablished at about 500 – the midpoint of the 200-800 scale; and (2) Verbal and Mathematics scales were aligned so that Verbal and Mathematics scores could be compared directly. Prior to recentering, Verbal and Mathematics scores could be compared only by looking at percentiles.

In 2005, a new SAT will be administered, which will differ from the current test in three major areas: writing, mathematics, and verbal. A writing test will be included for the first time and will include multiple-choice items, grammar usage questions, and a written essay. The math test will include Algebra II content, and the quantitative comparisons will be eliminated. The Verbal test will be re-named “Critical Reading” and will include the addition of shorter reading passages to the existing long reading passages. Analogies will be eliminated.

A high SAT means nothing. All those kids who used to relay on the SAT scores took those darn test a bunch of times until they achieved the parents desire score.

The only ones hurting from this are Tutors and companies who "help" you study for the SATs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been lurking on this board and College Confidential since DC started freshman year in the fall and I am so shocked and sad for so many of what seem to be stellar students on paper getting deferred or even outright rejected from what used to be deemed "safety' schools. I know we're in a bit of a bubble in the DC area and it can be more competitive trying to get into certain schools from certain school systems (or at least that's what I'm told) but it seems to be especially bad this year? Do you think some of it is a result of COVID with '21 and '22 students taking gap years, and will normalize over time or do you think it will only get worse?

Parents say that every year.. this year is especially bad?? No its been like this

+1. Yes, parents say that every.single.year. Process hasn’t changed and it isn’t any worse. What has changed is now it’s your kid’s turn to go thru the meat grinder and that makes it look and feel much worse than years before.

That isn’t correct, the test optional years have been harder given the huge increase in applications to top schools. Thar said, this year is pretty similar to last year in terms of results.

It is true. Parents always come up with some reason they want to believe. This cycle, it's because TO. A couple years back, it was because Covid, a few years before that, more kids applying, then before that it was Common App...etc. Believe what you want to believe, but it's always the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

The SAT was recentered in 1994 or 1995. Then the writing portion was added, then taken away. The general consensus is that scores are higher now than in the 1990s.

The scores may be higher now than in the 1990s, but only 7% of SAT test takers today get a 1400 or above. And only 2% get 1500 or above.

https://blog.prepscholar.com/sat-percentiles-and-score-rankings

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anyone knows.
Test optional policies have increased the pool of qualified applicants to the top schools by many fold.

Also, the class applying this year had Covid-era grading for 2 years of the 3 that are considered for applications. In DCPS (for instance) the lowest grade a kid could get was a B if he/she did any work. MCPS bumped all final grades up by one letter grade. Lots of stuff like this happened all around the country in giant school districts (so hundreds of thousands of students impacted).

The class of 2025 will be the first that will have all 4 years back in a classroom with normal grading scales.

Who said they were qualified?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anyone knows.
Test optional policies have increased the pool of qualified applicants to the top schools by many fold.

Also, the class applying this year had Covid-era grading for 2 years of the 3 that are considered for applications. In DCPS (for instance) the lowest grade a kid could get was a B if he/she did any work. MCPS bumped all final grades up by one letter grade. Lots of stuff like this happened all around the country in giant school districts (so hundreds of thousands of students impacted).

The class of 2025 will be the first that will have all 4 years back in a classroom with normal grading scales.

Who said they were qualified?

haha... lol.