Move TSP to G for a bit?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The problem is you don’t know when to move back. When timing the market, you have to be right twice - when to get out, and when to get back in.

Assuming you have a long horizon, generally speaking you are better off leaving it where it is.

The S&P dropped 16% during the March 2025 tarriff tantrum last year. A war like this one seems like a much bigger headwind for markets. So I'm waiting for at least a 10% drop before going back in.

I would compare war response to war response. Not to tariffs. The markers that were affected the most (Asia) already dropped over 10%.the Us is just an echo and they have monetary tools to buffer it. Back in 2022 the change was more permanent as Russia was sanctioned as also a major metals and agricultural exporter to the world. Now it’s primarily temporarily energy resources hike while there was an excess of oil in tankers on waters and in reserves so it only takes weeks to redirect. I might be wrong but I think it’s more temporarily than tariffs or Russian invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fools and their money are soon parted.

Same with day traders.

I feel good about G for a short while! Not sure why. Maybe $100 oil? Who knows.

[Anonymous]

And today ended in the green, dispute futures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And today ended in the green, dispute futures.

Today as in 4pm on Tue 10 March? All the major US indexes were down a little today, but a moderate drop feels like a green day after last week.

So when should I go back in? I figure it'll be mostly flat up/down for a while, since neither side wants to openly admit they want to stop fighting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% in anything doesn't make sense, and swinging from 100% I to 100% G definitely doesn't make sense.

Pick a reasonable distribution, then you can tweak it a bit based on circumstances. For example, I moved my G share from 15 to 20 percent last year because I wanted to be a bit more conservative.

No, I knew I fund would outperform several months ago and it did. It was up 33% last year. There is anemic C fund growth. I read a ton and it doesn’t take a genius to put together why I fund did well.

My next magic trick is telling you that things are nuts right now and I’m moving to G where I will keep things more safe then when I think enough red days have happened in the market I will simply move to an 80% I, 10 S and 10% C allocation for the next couple years. Trust me. I know better than you about macro conditions.[/quote

Great. You know better, so why did you post in the first place?

I was going to say something similar, except if you know so much better, you should be making a killing as an investment manager somewhere instead of posting to a random forum.

Yea, op here, not a fund manager, but I’m glad I moved to G last week! Pretty sure we are going to see the downturn continue. Once I feel like reentering the market, I will.

It’s incredible to me that people can’t assess on a macro level. It’s pretty clear we are going to have huge inflation soon and buying gold now is a good idea. Or turmoil in geo political events will depress the market. But then again 54% of the country reads and processes information at a 6th grade level or some such statistic, so yeah most people probably walk around thinking everything is hunky dory. Many of those fox subscribe to Fox Nation most likely.

[Anonymous]

I’m staying put. Happy to buy at lower prices and not into selling my C fund at the moment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m staying put. Happy to buy at lower prices and not into selling my C fund at the moment.

It’s not “selling”. You can literally just exchange funds to G for however long you want and stay put without the risk of losing principle like with C. G doesn’t go down. Then shift it back to C later a you’ll get more shares cheaper.

Even though I fund is actually where gains will be made for a while. C was on a downward trend anyway.

My move will be to wait for more downward pressure and move from G to 80%I, 10% S and C 10%. It’s already working and you cucks saying it’s crazy are annoyingly wrong and short sighted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m staying put. Happy to buy at lower prices and not into selling my C fund at the moment.

It’s not “selling”. You can literally just exchange funds to G for however long you want and stay put without the risk of losing principle like with C. G doesn’t go down. Then shift it back to C later a you’ll get more shares cheaper.

Even though I fund is actually where gains will be made for a while. C was on a downward trend anyway.

My move will be to wait for more downward pressure and move from G to 80%I, 10% S and C 10%. It’s already working and you cucks saying it’s crazy are annoyingly wrong and short sighted.

You have to sell the C to buy the G. This is how an exchange works. You should not be contemplating any “moves” without understanding this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m staying put. Happy to buy at lower prices and not into selling my C fund at the moment.

It’s not “selling”. You can literally just exchange funds to G for however long you want and stay put without the risk of losing principle like with C. G doesn’t go down. Then shift it back to C later a you’ll get more shares cheaper.

Even though I fund is actually where gains will be made for a while. C was on a downward trend anyway.

My move will be to wait for more downward pressure and move from G to 80%I, 10% S and C 10%. It’s already working and you cucks saying it’s crazy are annoyingly wrong and short sighted.

I’m pretty sure that “exchange” is you selling C at a low and buying G.

[Anonymous]

G fund. I fking told you so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:G fund. I fking told you so.

Just keep making short-view moves, you kind soul. Let's check-in after 10 years, and then 20, which is my retirement horizon. We don't really have to, because I know where you'll be. You aren't the first, you won't be the last.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:G fund. I fking told you so.

Nope. Drops are fine. I’m buying more for less.

[Anonymous]

I went to 100% G fund in 2008 and thought I was a genius- and then was a little late getting back in 2010, and wound up missing a big chunk of the recovery. Very hard to time the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I went to 100% G fund in 2008 and thought I was a genius- and then was a little late getting back in 2010, and wound up missing a big chunk of the recovery. Very hard to time the market.

No one can time the market. You might get lucky once or twice and good for you if you do.

Holding steady consistently outperforms attempts at timing.

[Anonymous]

Panic selling is a common mistake. Way to lock in your losses.