2021 VA Governors race

[Anonymous]

https://www.vpap.org/

Not sure which candidates are Trumpier than others in the LG and AG races. The numbers are weighted votes (each city and county gets a # of delegates and the actual ballots cast are then weighed according to that formula.)

AG results, round 1:
Miyares 4,590 (36.56%)
- won counties from greater NoVA all the way down to C'Ville and then roughly east of I-81 to the state line, and then parts of Tidewater.

Smith 4,325 (34.45%)
- won counties along the WV border and then more counties in the eastern part of the state (and parts of Tidewater)

White 1,872 (14.92%)
- won two random rural counties in SWVA (Henry and Wythe)

Haley 1,767 (14.08%)
- won counties around Richmond

So Haley's out.

AG results, round 2:
Miyares 5,297 (+708)
(By and large a swath of the state running from Northern VA to Galax and parts of Tidewater.)

Smith 4,975 (+650)
(By and large the same areas as before)

White 2,282 (+409)
(won some counties in SWVA)

So White was eliminated.

AG results, Round 3:
Miyares 6,490 (+1,193)
(Same areas as before.)

Smith 6,604 (+1,089)
(Same areas as before.)

[Anonymous]

Gov race is a hodgepodge. It's not a case of "Chase doing well in rural counties" and "others doing well in the more urban counties." Chase is getting thumped in several SWVA counties, for example.

Doran or Johnson will almost certainly get eliminated in the first round. The other will get zapped in the second round. Neither has even 1%.

My guess is de la Pena gets zapped in the third round and the real fun begins.

[Anonymous]

As of 11:55am:

27% of results in the first round. Johnson and Doran are both under 1%. de la Pena is at 5%, and Cox is now lagging the "big three" at 14%. Even if all the eliminateds go with Cox, it wouldn't be enough.

Youngkin has a surpising lead over Chase - I figured Chase would be the clear winner in the first round and the nailbiting would happen in the later rounds as you wondered whether the more establishment candidates would fall in line or if Chase would get over the top.

[Anonymous]

Politics is about money so we'll end up with two rich white guys both of whom live in the Langley HS district - McAuliffe (McLean) vs. Youngkin (Great Falls). Barf.

[Anonymous]

Dave Wasserman, political writer, says good chance Virginia elects Republican governor.

[Anonymous]

Reminder that Youngkin is not a moderate. He supports the big lie and “voting integrity” laws.

[Anonymous]

I’m for Youngkin: “ When I'm governor, we will NOT teach critical race theory in our schools. We WILL teach accelerated math classes. ”

This will be a critical issue for many families who are sick of woke leaders going overboard.

[Anonymous]

Round 1 is done

Weighted votes:
Youngkin 4,132
Snyder 3,242
Chase 2,606
Cox 1,694
de la Pena 805
Doran 42
Johnson 34 (eliminated)

Round 2 will be done soon. 4 voters had "no choice" after Johnson.

Youngkin 4,141 (+17)
Snyder 3,244 (+6)
Chase 2,612 (+9)
Cox 1,698 (+12)
de la Pena 812 (+17)
Doran 48 (+13)

Doran will be out next, and then de la Pena. After that, it gets more interesting.

[Anonymous]

I think it will depend on whether Chase’s votes end of going to Snyder. If they do, he’ll win and Republicans won’t stand a chance in November (he’s way too Trumpy for VA!). If those who voted first choice for Chase didn’t chose Snyder as second choice (apparently she told her people to only vote for her), then Youngkin will probably win (I’m assuming he’ll get most of Cox’s votes in the next round) and November will be interesting.

[Anonymous]

If T Mac wins the primary I think he’s a shoo in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If T Mac wins the primary I think he’s a shoo in.

Agree. When is the D primary?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If T Mac wins the primary I think he’s a shoo in.

Agree. When is the D primary?

I think 6/8?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it will depend on whether Chase’s votes end of going to Snyder. If they do, he’ll win and Republicans won’t stand a chance in November (he’s way too Trumpy for VA!). If those who voted first choice for Chase didn’t chose Snyder as second choice (apparently she told her people to only vote for her), then Youngkin will probably win (I’m assuming he’ll get most of Cox’s votes in the next round) and November will be interesting.

This is what I think too. Pete Snyder wants to portray himself as the candidate for education, which he hopes will help him peel off suburban voters, but he’s an inexperienced political lightweight compared to the top Democrats and will lose by high single digits, 8-9%, in the general. Youngkin would make the race much more competitive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it will depend on whether Chase’s votes end of going to Snyder. If they do, he’ll win and Republicans won’t stand a chance in November (he’s way too Trumpy for VA!). If those who voted first choice for Chase didn’t chose Snyder as second choice (apparently she told her people to only vote for her), then Youngkin will probably win (I’m assuming he’ll get most of Cox’s votes in the next round) and November will be interesting.

This is what I think too. Pete Snyder wants to portray himself as the candidate for education, which he hopes will help him peel off suburban voters, but he’s an inexperienced political lightweight compared to the top Democrats and will lose by high single digits, 8-9%, in the general. Youngkin would make the race much more competitive.

+1

Snyder is inauthentic and cringey. McAuliffe would eat him alive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think it will depend on whether Chase’s votes end of going to Snyder. If they do, he’ll win and Republicans won’t stand a chance in November (he’s way too Trumpy for VA!). If those who voted first choice for Chase didn’t chose Snyder as second choice (apparently she told her people to only vote for her), then Youngkin will probably win (I’m assuming he’ll get most of Cox’s votes in the next round) and November will be interesting.

This is what I think too. Pete Snyder wants to portray himself as the candidate for education, which he hopes will help him peel off suburban voters, but he’s an inexperienced political lightweight compared to the top Democrats and will lose by high single digits, 8-9%, in the general. Youngkin would make the race much more competitive.

+1

Snyder is inauthentic and cringey. McAuliffe would eat him alive.

I totally disagree. I would imagine that the Democrats do not want to face Youngkin or Snyder.