US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else using this resource to track their numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

For the states I’m following it seems accurate and more up to date than the cdc.

26,900 US cases this morning

There are inconsistencies between that and 1.3 acres and the latter is more US focused and has more granularity. They both have sameish topline numbers though lol. Is the Johns Hopkins thing still good?

Thanks! I hadn’t looked at 1.3 acres. Will check it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

This is so stupid. We probably have 100k - 200k cases. We are only limited on the number of sick people they manage to test. The more they test the more the numbers will go up. You can’t pretend there is a trend based on what is showing up right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

He set the ban on travel from China before any other country. Just think what the number would be otherwise. A large percentage of the deaths are directly related to one nursing home in Washington. Others are directly related to travel.

I have a question, though. There is now a case in Fairfax County that was a result of travel in Iran. I thought there had long been a ban from travel to Iran. How did this happen?
Several cases in Fairfax are directly related to a Nile cruise. This is Trump's fault?

https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/covid19/case-information

Yes. It is his fault. He knew since January at least it would be a problem but he put his campaign over the lives of others.

Reports were out already in January stating this could become a pandemic. But what did Trump do? He said it was a hoax.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

This is so stupid. We probably have 100k - 200k cases. We are only limited on the number of sick people they manage to test. The more they test the more the numbers will go up. You can’t pretend there is a trend based on what is showing up right now.

Thanks. I actually agree with you. The more they test, the lower the case fatality rate will drop though.

[Anonymous]

I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Italy didn’t have a President calling it a hoax. Italy didn’t have 40% of the population supporting the President in calling it a hoax. Too bad the virus could be limited to those who don’t believe it.

He didn't call it a hoax. He called it a hoax to blame it on him. Big difference. But, the Dem politicians changed his words.

I don’t really care, do u?

For someone who calls people Pocahontas as an insult, he does not deserve us even thinking for a minute if he did one thing right. He screwed this up and now people are dying.

Forgive me for not feeling bad for a conman.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

In liberal western countries, rioting will be inevitable if you keep people locked up for too long. Unfortunate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Italy didn’t have a President calling it a hoax. Italy didn’t have 40% of the population supporting the President in calling it a hoax. Too bad the virus could be limited to those who don’t believe it.

He didn't call it a hoax. He called it a hoax to blame it on him. Big difference. But, the Dem politicians changed his words.

I don’t really care, do u?

For someone who calls people Pocahontas as an insult, he does not deserve us even thinking for a minute if he did one thing right. He screwed this up and now people are dying.

Forgive me for not feeling bad for a conman.

Well, this is silly. So you want him to take all of the blame for the stock market tank, but none of the credit if something good happens with the CV response? You can’t have it both ways.

I would tell you to step outside and take a breather but...quarantine

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

This is so stupid. We probably have 100k - 200k cases. We are only limited on the number of sick people they manage to test. The more they test the more the numbers will go up. You can’t pretend there is a trend based on what is showing up right now.

Thanks. I actually agree with you. The more they test, the lower the case fatality rate will drop though.

That’s true too because for the longest time (and still in many cases?) we are only testing people when they go into the hospital and maybe some contacts. The other important thing to understand is that the people that are getting sick today, let’s say 50k, 5% will be critical but not for 2-4 weeks and those that die will be three weeks out. Even with the (much needed) increases in testing, we are not testing in the numbers we need. Without that we are going to have a really hard time getting where we need to be controlling this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

In liberal western countries, rioting will be inevitable if you keep people locked up for too long. Unfortunate.

Are you the small business owner? How's business?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

In liberal western countries, rioting will be inevitable if you keep people locked up for too long. Unfortunate.

Are you the small business owner? How's business?

Lol, I kind of like you sometimes. You can have your funny moments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Italy didn’t have a President calling it a hoax. Italy didn’t have 40% of the population supporting the President in calling it a hoax. Too bad the virus could be limited to those who don’t believe it.

He didn't call it a hoax. He called it a hoax to blame it on him. Big difference. But, the Dem politicians changed his words.

I don’t really care, do u?

For someone who calls people Pocahontas as an insult, he does not deserve us even thinking for a minute if he did one thing right. He screwed this up and now people are dying.

Forgive me for not feeling bad for a conman.

Well, this is silly. So you want him to take all of the blame for the stock market tank, but none of the credit if something good happens with the CV response? You can’t have it both ways.

I would tell you to step outside and take a breather but...quarantine

He does not take blame for anything. He said he is not responsible for this.

He is the opposite of a leader.

Meanwhile, he wrote in tweets that a leader is responsible for everything but I guess he thought that applied only to Obama.

He is an old man with a muddled brain and he should step down to get the treatment and care he needs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Italy didn’t have a President calling it a hoax. Italy didn’t have 40% of the population supporting the President in calling it a hoax. Too bad the virus could be limited to those who don’t believe it.

He didn't call it a hoax. He called it a hoax to blame it on him. Big difference. But, the Dem politicians changed his words.

I don’t really care, do u?

For someone who calls people Pocahontas as an insult, he does not deserve us even thinking for a minute if he did one thing right. He screwed this up and now people are dying.

Forgive me for not feeling bad for a conman.

Well, this is silly. So you want him to take all of the blame for the stock market tank, but none of the credit if something good happens with the CV response? You can’t have it both ways.

I would tell you to step outside and take a breather but...quarantine

He does not take blame for anything. He said he is not responsible for this.

He is the opposite of a leader.

Meanwhile, he wrote in tweets that a leader is responsible for everything but I guess he thought that applied only to Obama.

He is an old man with a muddled brain and he should step down to get the treatment and care he needs.

Aren’t you better than him though? Do you want to bring yourself down to his level?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

In liberal western countries, rioting will be inevitable if you keep people locked up for too long. Unfortunate.

I agree. This is why South Korea could contain it.

The US, I can guarantee, will not learn its lesson. In fact, at this point, it's too late.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I get news directly from Italy. The guard is out because they fear people will riot. Restrictions are tighter. They may limit store hours to once a week.

In liberal western countries, rioting will be inevitable if you keep people locked up for too long. Unfortunate.

I agree. This is why South Korea could contain it.

The US, I can guarantee, will not learn its lesson. In fact, at this point, it's too late.

Agree. This is why I hate when people say we can be like SK. Just look at the people on this board saying dollars ahead of lives.