US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

He includes lots of data. Even more interesting is the data he leaves out.

Does he even realize that schools are closed in all those Asian countries except for Taiwan (schools were closed initially), which is a closed island, and Singapore, same?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

[Anonymous]

Yikes. And Italy and the USA have the same amount of people too. Crazy times like this make me wish Americans knew more math and critical thinking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s going to go up ...because....more people are being tested now.


Thank you captain obvious.

In other news, water is wet.

Huh? No, the case fatality rate will actually go down as more people get tested. You clearly didn’t read. Total number of cases is a pretty useless vanity metric.

Correct.

Plus recall the cruise ship people who were quarantined on an army base for two weeks, tested negative, released, and two days later tested positive and hospitalized.

Only get tested when seriously ill. Otherwise stay isolated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

San Fran has started to flatten, but it is too early to know if it is meaningful. We really won't know until about April 5th where we stand nationally, and the SPring Break mess in Florida really throws a wrench into anything because Florida didn't fully shut down.

Currently, the broad numbers suggest the US is on a much worse curve than Italy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

[Anonymous]

The numbers on 1.3 acres are very different than your numbers, PP. Much worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

1) numbers you are using are outdated
2) while there are micro trends, there are some places - Louisiana, Florida, Delaware etc where the spikes are just beginning. So we really won't know for another two weeks, and that is if things are more shut down then they have been.

Cherry Blossoms, Spring Break etc illustrate people are not social distancing and restart the clock, so the earliest I would look for anything meaningful is April 5th and even then, tack on another two weeks from there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The numbers on 1.3 acres are very different than your numbers, PP. Much worse.

Thanks. Is that supposed to be the definitive source?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

1) numbers you are using are outdated
2) while there are micro trends, there are some places - Louisiana, Florida, Delaware etc where the spikes are just beginning. So we really won't know for another two weeks, and that is if things are more shut down then they have been.

Cherry Blossoms, Spring Break etc illustrate people are not social distancing and restart the clock, so the earliest I would look for anything meaningful is April 5th and even then, tack on another two weeks from there.

Early days...

[Anonymous]

Anyone else using this resource to track their numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

For the states I’m following it seems accurate and more up to date than the cdc.

26,900 US cases this morning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anyone else using this resource to track their numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

For the states I’m following it seems accurate and more up to date than the cdc.

26,900 US cases this morning

There are inconsistencies between that and 1.3 acres and the latter is more US focused and has more granularity. They both have sameish topline numbers though lol. Is the Johns Hopkins thing still good?