Biden's VP?

[Anonymous]

I really like Duckworth. I like that she visited deported veterans, I like that she confronted Trump in some hearing and said she refused to be told anything about the military by a 5 time military deferment person. She seems very genuine and likable. She is an American nut was born in Thailand, I think. Not sure if that affects her chances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Harris's big impediment is that she's always done the politically proper thing and thus people worry that she's not authentic. She's very Hillaryesque in that regard and it can come across as calculated and overly ambitious (which is why the primary attack on Biden backfired). From talking to people that have worked for her she's actually a genuine and caring person. She needs to show her real self more because her schtick doesnt play as well nationally. She's clearly smart and the good thing is that all she has to learn is to show her true self. Her schtick plays very well with the Dem base. The outstanding question is whether she can develop a public persona that appeals to swing voters. Despite what some of the base wants Biden does not need a pure attack dog. He needs a Mastiff not a Rottweiler, if that makes sense.

It is pretty much a given at this point that Biden will win, and win bigly. Trump has imploded so badly on his own over the last 3 months, that the VP candidate would only need to show 5 minutes of real video clips, and say "I rest my case."

There is some difficulty with showing one's "true self" after a career of doing the "politically proper" (a/k/a politically expedient) thing for so long. That is true of most politicians though.

Above all, Biden needs someone with the maturity and judgment to help him govern. Maybe Harris will be able to do that but she has missed some opportunities to show she can be a president, not just a prosecutor.

It's definitely no a given and the stakes are too high to allow anybody to think that way

In recent history, it is very rare for a VP nominee to actually make a difference electorally. The last example was probably LBJ because he helped deliver Texas for JFK.

However, a VP nominee can help shore up a deficiency such as how Cheney and Biden may have helped with concerns about Bush 43 and Obama respectively. Both those presidents took office with relatively limited high level elected experience.

Biden is one of the most experienced presidential candidates in history, with around 45 years as either a US senator or Vice President. But he is not as sharp as perhaps he once was. His retorts in the debates with Trump will largely consist of "c'mon man," and "that's a bunch of malarkey." He also may tell a bunch of stories about things he did in his younger days that get exaggerated just a little bit more every time he tells the story.

Biden needs a steady hand; a woman who is ready to be president on Day One. He also needs someone he can trust and in line with his policy prerogatives. The campaign is still very important, of course, but Biden should focus on picking someone who will reassure the shrinking pool of swing voters who may be susceptible to Trump's appeal that the new team will be focused on governance and getting things done.

[Anonymous]

Pence made a huge difference for Trump. Without Pence he would not have had the level of evangelical support that he has.

The margins are so small in the battleground states that every little advantage counts. 80k votes divided over three states was the 2016 margin of victory. Wisconsin is still neck and neck. This is not a normal election .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pence made a huge difference for Trump. Without Pence he would not have had the level of evangelical support that he has.

The margins are so small in the battleground states that every little advantage counts. 80k votes divided over three states was the 2016 margin of victory. Wisconsin is still neck and neck. This is not a normal election .

Please cite data or analysis showing that Pence delivered votes that would not otherwise have gone to Trump. Evangelicals supported Trump in huge numbers in the 2016 primaries.

Trump needs a lot more than just Wisconsin to win. Without Florida, he also has to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona. He is down double digits nationally.

Biden needs to be thinking beyond just a political campaign. He needs to find someone who can help him restore a sense of regular order and normalcy, and help him govern. He needs a VP who does not care about making a splash on social media or getting on TV, or self promotion for a 2024 run.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pence made a huge difference for Trump. Without Pence he would not have had the level of evangelical support that he has.

The margins are so small in the battleground states that every little advantage counts. 80k votes divided over three states was the 2016 margin of victory. Wisconsin is still neck and neck. This is not a normal election .

Please cite data or analysis showing that Pence delivered votes that would not otherwise have gone to Trump. Evangelicals supported Trump in huge numbers in the 2016 primaries.

Trump needs a lot more than just Wisconsin to win. Without Florida, he also has to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona. He is down double digits nationally.

Biden needs to be thinking beyond just a political campaign. He needs to find someone who can help him restore a sense of regular order and normalcy, and help him govern. He needs a VP who does not care about making a splash on social media or getting on TV, or self promotion for a 2024 run.

National numbers mean nothing. Florida is way too crazy to count on for anything. Have to assume it's staying red. That means means Biden needs to winc my Wisconsin, Arizona or North Carolina plus Michigan. Each if those states has wildly different demographics and swing voters.

The maximization of rural turnout in 2016 and the enthusiasm with which evangelicals supported Trump can most definitely be tied to Pence. Big data told Hillary/Mook that PA, MI, and WI were in the bag. Data told the HRC campaign that they didn't need to go to WI. Data told HRC to microtarget in PA and MI.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I really like Duckworth. I like that she visited deported veterans, I like that she confronted Trump in some hearing and said she refused to be told anything about the military by a 5 time military deferment person. She seems very genuine and likable. She is an American nut was born in Thailand, I think. Not sure if that affects her chances.

I’ve been saying from the beginning she’s the safest pick. Her veteran status alone is a huge plus but no, I like her too. She’s a straight shooter who was way ahead of the current crop (with the exception of Bass) on police reform.

[Anonymous]

I don't care, do you? The VP pick is almost never consequential or dispositive (well, Ryan and mostly Palin were horrible). All of the people under consideration are fine and a zillion times better than the current occupant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really like Duckworth. I like that she visited deported veterans, I like that she confronted Trump in some hearing and said she refused to be told anything about the military by a 5 time military deferment person. She seems very genuine and likable. She is an American nut was born in Thailand, I think. Not sure if that affects her chances.

I’ve been saying from the beginning she’s the safest pick. Her veteran status alone is a huge plus but no, I like her too. She’s a straight shooter who was way ahead of the current crop (with the exception of Bass) on police reform.

Safest? Trump will have a field day with her born in Bangkok to a mother of Chinese heritage. You thought the Obama birther stuff was bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really like Duckworth. I like that she visited deported veterans, I like that she confronted Trump in some hearing and said she refused to be told anything about the military by a 5 time military deferment person. She seems very genuine and likable. She is an American nut was born in Thailand, I think. Not sure if that affects her chances.

I’ve been saying from the beginning she’s the safest pick. Her veteran status alone is a huge plus but no, I like her too. She’s a straight shooter who was way ahead of the current crop (with the exception of Bass) on police reform.

Safest? Trump will have a field day with her born in Bangkok to a mother of Chinese heritage. You thought the Obama birther stuff was bad.

Thai heritage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I really like Duckworth. I like that she visited deported veterans, I like that she confronted Trump in some hearing and said she refused to be told anything about the military by a 5 time military deferment person. She seems very genuine and likable. She is an American nut was born in Thailand, I think. Not sure if that affects her chances.

I’ve been saying from the beginning she’s the safest pick. Her veteran status alone is a huge plus but no, I like her too. She’s a straight shooter who was way ahead of the current crop (with the exception of Bass) on police reform.

Safest? Trump will have a field day with her born in Bangkok to a mother of Chinese heritage. You thought the Obama birther stuff was bad.

Well she’s not black and doesn’t have a Muslim middle name so I don’t think it will be quite as bad, no. Regardless, the idiots who buy into that kind of tripe would never vote for the ticket anyway. But moderate Repubs and Independents will respect her disabled veteran status.

[Anonymous]

Does the fact that she was not born in the US preclude her from becoming President in an emergency? I like Duckworth but given Biden’s age I want a VP who can step into his shoes if necessary. Otherwise I agree she would be fantastic

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does the fact that she was not born in the US preclude her from becoming President in an emergency? I like Duckworth but given Biden’s age I want a VP who can step into his shoes if necessary. Otherwise I agree she would be fantastic

No, she was born to one parent who was a US citizen, therefore she is a US citizen. US citizens are born overseas all the time. Genuinely curious, what makes you think she couldn't step into his shoes if necessary? A veteran who has served in both the House and the Senate, and the VA, seems like she has pretty great experience. Led the Senate on police reform, has written op Eds on race relations and foreign policy, a moderate with strong appeal in the Midwest, I think she can make the experience case and would have broad appeal and built-in respect as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does the fact that she was not born in the US preclude her from becoming President in an emergency? I like Duckworth but given Biden’s age I want a VP who can step into his shoes if necessary. Otherwise I agree she would be fantastic

No, she was born to one parent who was a US citizen, therefore she is a US citizen. US citizens are born overseas all the time. Genuinely curious, what makes you think she couldn't step into his shoes if necessary? A veteran who has served in both the House and the Senate, and the VA, seems like she has pretty great experience. Led the Senate on police reform, has written op Eds on race relations and foreign policy, a moderate with strong appeal in the Midwest, I think she can make the experience case and would have broad appeal and built-in respect as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

It's not quite as simple as that and it has never been tested. Since John McCain ran, he was born in Panama at a moment in time when his dad was not official USG, it's been thought that that is not a problem. However, there is no settled opinion on the matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does the fact that she was not born in the US preclude her from becoming President in an emergency? I like Duckworth but given Biden’s age I want a VP who can step into his shoes if necessary. Otherwise I agree she would be fantastic

No, she was born to one parent who was a US citizen, therefore she is a US citizen. US citizens are born overseas all the time. Genuinely curious, what makes you think she couldn't step into his shoes if necessary? A veteran who has served in both the House and the Senate, and the VA, seems like she has pretty great experience. Led the Senate on police reform, has written op Eds on race relations and foreign policy, a moderate with strong appeal in the Midwest, I think she can make the experience case and would have broad appeal and built-in respect as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

I remember this coming up when Ted Cruz was running (he was born in Canada) but I don’t remember what the conclusion was. It also came up with John McCain but he was born in the Panama Canal Zone which was considered US territory. Again I like her and think she is great I just want to make sure there is no legal impediment to her becoming President if necessary

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does the fact that she was not born in the US preclude her from becoming President in an emergency? I like Duckworth but given Biden’s age I want a VP who can step into his shoes if necessary. Otherwise I agree she would be fantastic

No, she was born to one parent who was a US citizen, therefore she is a US citizen. US citizens are born overseas all the time. Genuinely curious, what makes you think she couldn't step into his shoes if necessary? A veteran who has served in both the House and the Senate, and the VA, seems like she has pretty great experience. Led the Senate on police reform, has written op Eds on race relations and foreign policy, a moderate with strong appeal in the Midwest, I think she can make the experience case and would have broad appeal and built-in respect as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

I remember this coming up when Ted Cruz was running (he was born in Canada) but I don’t remember what the conclusion was. It also came up with John McCain but he was born in the Panama Canal Zone which was considered US territory. Again I like her and think she is great I just want to make sure there is no legal impediment to her becoming President if necessary

"Natural born citizen" is commonly understood as "born a US citizen" regardless of the place of birth, as opposed to a "naturalized citizen." I don't think legal efforts would go anywhere. Judges wouldn't touch similar efforts against McCain. Repubs had no problem with George Romney, born in Mexico, or Cruz running. Yes, some will scream about it, but those are the people who wouldn't vote for her anyway.