Republican Party Abandoning Trump Train Wreck
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Anonymous
The fact Dubya was a dullard who found himself in way over his head doesn't mean that everyone working in his administration was as well. |
Anonymous
the man served in Bush 41's cabinet, not Bush 43. |
Anonymous
No, I think Cruz PP is correct. Remember the GOP still hasn't nominated the "true conservative" that they just know will win, but actually won't. |
Anonymous
It wont be the end of the Republican party. Let me explain. The party has 4 wings: 1) Neocons - Macho America on defense(Get into any war out there, if there is none, create one to prove American might wing), 2) Relcons - Religious conservatives have been losing battles with LGBTQ and abortion. They are on a steady decline, 3) Fincons - Financial conservatives are the tax cut for the rich trickle downers. This wing is the core of establishment moderates and central philosophy of the party. They have a taken a beating but have doubled down on their failed milton friedman economic theories. and 4) finally the Bigots - These are the white supremacists and hidden racists who pose as regular suburban whites but who secretly harbor hate against minorities browning this country. Almost all the republicans are by default fin-cons as that is the core principle of the party. But there were subtle divisions and overlaps within these major groups. 2000: The party Nominated Bush team (They had people from 1-3 wings and bigot wing has no where to go) and they amped up the war and doubled down on the failed tax cuts for the rich and delaying LGBTQ rights. We see the damage done and we are still going through the remnants of the devastating knockout punch to the country and economy. 2008:Then they tried Mccain(neo-con first/fin-con) but a moderate in religious matters. He was gentlemanly enough to not offer dog whistles to the bigots. Mccain was dealt a bad hand by Bush. 2012:Then they tried Romney(fin-con first/neo-con/rel-con much less). Again an overall moderate who didn't listen to the bigots or the economic recession sufferers. He was again facing long odds of unseating an incumbent who has stopped the free fall of the economy. 2016: in 2016, Neo-con first(Bush,Rubio,Christie), Rel-con first(Cruz,Huckabee,Santorum), Kasich was the odd man out without a strong wing. He was moderate in every wing. Jindal tried to be Rel-con but didn't realize with a brown skin and hindu parents he cant do that well in GOP. Here comes Trump who identified the GOP base was never in bed with the Fin-con core of the party. Neocons lost favor with the base after Bush. So that leaves Rel-cons to have upper hand, which Cruz milked. But that leaves a big chunk of the party without a representative. The base was basically anti tax cuts to the rich and anti-minority bigots. The educated, small business kind and well to do maybe just about 20% of the party and they are the fin-con/neocon core. The rel-con maybe 50% of the party and the other 30% are bigots varying in degree. Trump took the 30% right away. Jeb,Rubio,Christie,Kasich were fighting for the small pie and split them without getting much penetration into relcon. They never pandered to the bigots directly. Cruz was more competitive coz he had a bigger pie to play with. All of them underestimated the bigot pie in GOP and paid the price. Trump could have been easily beaten had they whittled the field down to 2/3 before March 1, because trump had a decent floor but he also had a hard ceiling. GOP future: Contrary to the belief, the reemerged bigot class cant be put down easily. They need to suffer atleast one more defeat. Relcons will continue their slow decline. They will still block everything in House for another decade though. But they still got fin-cons and the down but not out neo-cons to rebuild the party. But with the base against tax cuts for the rich, it will be difficult to go that route. Currently Trump has conned the base into believing the reason for their ills is brown people and trade treaty WHILE giving a yuuge tax cut to the rich. Someone in the next cycle will run this route BUT with only dog whistles NOT directly like Trump. The GOP will recover in the 2020s but it would have remodeled itself as close to European right, no more religious culture war, diluted neocon(like today's Hillary) and diluted fincon(like Bill Clinton) policies. The democrat party would by then be comfortable with higher taxes on the wealthy, universal healthcare and self defensive military policy. Obama, the new face of the new dem party, will be celebrated like LBJ, ofcourse without the vietnam war blemish. |
Anonymous
| Interesting analysis. I generally agree about the four Republicant groups, but have different predictions for the future. I think the neocons and fincons may defect to the Centrist wing of the Dems. This leaves the relcons and bigots out on a shrinking island. But once he neocons and fincons arrive, the left wing of the Dems will defect, leaving us with three parties in 2020 or 2024. The centrists will win there, but three parties is inherently unstable, so they will eventually merge back to two. |
Anonymous
I dont believe USA will have 3 party system at all, even briefly. The bigots and relcons together are still a big percent. So they won't decline overnight. What will happen is the bigot wing will be ignored by 2024 and relcons will adjust to the new normal. They still have lot of power at state level in red states and the GOP will throw them a few bones at state level to keep them at bay. Parties in a two party system don't split easily, because the unstable party will always cater to the majority groups. The fincons and neocons don't have a place to go(dems are antithetical to everything they stand for), so will continue to control the purse strings of the GOP. The GOP will moderate their message on economic issues and tone up the religious issues at state level while ignoring the bigots. Finally they will try to attract the minorities by toning down the rhetoric and passing the immigration bill. This will get them some minorities but more than a decade away. Dems have a solid group bound by common economic interest. Social issues are not major attraction for dems right now and it won't be in future either. Even the professional class and very wealthy are fine with higher taxes up to a point. The minorities have no attraction to the GOP and that won't change easily. |
Anonymous
| Calling Kasich a moderate on social issues is proof the Republicans long ago lost their collective mind and soul. |
Anonymous
| We need to get better contraception coverage and sex ed so the bigots can go extinct. |
Anonymous
but they will probably figure out the loophole in the system - opting kids out of sex ed or some such nonsense |
Anonymous
More Republicans speaking out against Trump.
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Anonymous
| But Trump has a national campaign finance director whose family pocketed $3 million that Bernie Madoff bilked from others in his Ponzi scheme. |
Anonymous
Wouldn't that also cause the poors and illegals to go extinct as well |
Anonymous
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Juleanna Glover
“Come on in. The water is warm. There are a lot of people who oppose Trump and will not support him,” she said. “And for a conservative woman to be opposed to Trump is the most naturally comfortable place to be, philosophically and morally.” |
Anonymous
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President George HW Bush will vote for Clinton over Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/20/former-president-george-h-w-bush-plans-to-vote-for-clinton-according-to-a-family-friend/ "Former Republican president George H.W. Bush plans to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton in November rather than his party’s presidential nominee, according to a family friend." |
Anonymous
The irony..... |