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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Wow, Trump is causing a huge trainwreck for the Republicans.

Is this the end of the Republican party? [/quote]no they have one more round when they pin their hopes to an evangelical.  That will be the end. [/quote]

Cruz 2020 will be the end.[/quote]

I disagree. I think this is it.[/quote]

No, I think Cruz PP is correct. Remember the GOP still hasn't nominated the "true conservative" that they just know will win, but actually won't.[/quote]

It wont be the end of the Republican party. Let me explain. The party has 4 wings: 1) Neocons - Macho America on defense(Get into any war out there, if there is none, create one to prove American might wing), 2) Relcons - Religious conservatives have been losing battles with LGBTQ and abortion. They are on a steady decline, 3) Fincons - Financial conservatives are the tax cut for the rich trickle downers. This wing is the core of establishment moderates and central philosophy of the party. They have a taken a beating but have doubled down on their failed milton friedman economic theories. and 4) finally the Bigots - These are the white supremacists and hidden racists who pose as regular suburban whites but who secretly harbor hate against minorities browning this country. Almost all the republicans are by default fin-cons as that is the core principle of the party. But there were subtle divisions and overlaps within these major groups.

[b]2000:[/b] The party Nominated Bush team (They had people from 1-3 wings and bigot wing has no where to go) and they amped up the war and doubled down on the failed tax cuts for the rich and delaying LGBTQ rights. We see the damage done and we are still going through the remnants of the devastating knockout punch to the country and economy.

[b]2008:[/b]Then they tried Mccain(neo-con first/fin-con) but a moderate in religious matters. He was gentlemanly enough to not offer dog whistles to the bigots. Mccain was dealt a bad hand by Bush.

[b]2012:[/b]Then they tried Romney(fin-con first/neo-con/rel-con much less). Again an overall moderate who didn't listen to the bigots or the economic recession sufferers. He was again facing long odds of unseating an incumbent who has stopped the free fall of the economy.

[b]2016:[/b] in 2016, Neo-con first(Bush,Rubio,Christie), Rel-con first(Cruz,Huckabee,Santorum), Kasich was the odd man out without a strong wing. He was moderate in every wing. Jindal tried to be Rel-con but didn't realize with a brown skin and hindu parents he cant do that well in GOP. Here comes Trump who identified the GOP base was never in bed with the Fin-con core of the party. Neocons lost favor with the base after Bush. So that leaves Rel-cons to have upper hand, which Cruz milked. But that leaves a big chunk of the party without a representative. The base was basically anti tax cuts to the rich and anti-minority bigots. The educated, small business kind and well to do maybe just about 20% of the party and they are the fin-con/neocon core.  The rel-con maybe 50% of the party and the other 30% are bigots varying in degree. Trump took the 30% right away. Jeb,Rubio,Christie,Kasich were fighting for the small pie and split them without getting much penetration into relcon. They never pandered to the bigots directly. Cruz was more competitive coz he had a bigger pie to play with. All of them underestimated the bigot pie in GOP and paid the price. Trump could have been easily beaten had they whittled the field down to 2/3 before March 1, because trump had a decent floor but he also had a hard ceiling.

[b]GOP future:[/b] Contrary to the belief, the reemerged bigot class cant be put down easily. They need to suffer atleast one more defeat. Relcons will continue their slow decline. They will still block everything in House for another decade though.  But they still got fin-cons and the down but not out neo-cons to rebuild the party. But with the base against tax cuts for the rich, it will be difficult to go that route. Currently Trump has conned the base into believing the reason for their ills is brown people and trade treaty WHILE giving a yuuge tax cut to the rich. Someone in the next cycle will run this route BUT with only dog whistles NOT directly like Trump.

The GOP will recover in the 2020s but it would have remodeled itself as close to European right, no more religious culture war, diluted neocon(like today's Hillary) and diluted fincon(like Bill Clinton) policies. The democrat party would by then be comfortable with higher taxes on the wealthy, universal healthcare and self defensive military policy. Obama, the new face of the new dem party, will be celebrated like LBJ, ofcourse without the vietnam war blemish. [/quote]

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