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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Interesting analysis. I generally agree about the four Republicant groups, but have different predictions for the future. I think the neocons and fincons may defect to the Centrist wing of the Dems. This leaves the relcons and bigots out on a shrinking island. But once he neocons and fincons arrive, the left wing of the Dems will defect, leaving us with three parties in 2020 or 2024. The centrists will win there, but three parties is inherently unstable, so they will eventually merge back to two. [/quote]

I dont believe USA will have 3 party system at all, even briefly. The bigots and relcons together are still a big percent. So they won't decline overnight. What will happen is the bigot wing will be ignored by 2024 and relcons will adjust to the new normal. They still have lot of power at state level in red states and the GOP will throw them a few bones at state level to keep them at bay. Parties in a two party system don't split easily, because the unstable party will always cater to the majority groups. The fincons and neocons don't have a place to go(dems are antithetical to everything they stand for), so will continue to control the purse strings of the GOP. The GOP will moderate their message on economic issues and tone up the religious issues at state level while ignoring the bigots. Finally they will try to attract the minorities by toning down the rhetoric and passing the immigration bill. This will get them some minorities but more than a decade away.

Dems have a solid group bound by common economic interest. Social issues are not major attraction for dems right now and it won't be in future either. Even the professional class and very wealthy are fine with higher taxes up to a point. The minorities have no attraction to the GOP and that won't change easily. [/quote]

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