SAT/ACT single most predictive factor at Yale

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay. And some may go Test Blind. AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs. T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select. IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score. That Time is gone and not likely to return. It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life. I'm okay with that

[Anonymous]

Of course common sense.
If you can even do well on SAT, good luck

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission.

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that. This thread is based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.

What was stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants.

DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Not at Yale and Dartmouth, which is the whole point of this post.

NP. As long as you’re just talking about Yale/Dartmouth and not implying other colleges will follow suit. They have the demand and brand name, they can do whatever they want and it won’t impact applications. Other colleges need to remain TO.

No one is suggesting that many other colleges will follow suit. And not necessarily because they think transcript is more important. They’re pragmatic. TO yields more applications. That impacts their selectivity image and given the impending demographic cliff, it’s vital to their survival.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission.

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that. This thread is based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.

What was stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants.

DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.

Define "low." I know kids who are afraid to submit a 1450+.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission.

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that. This thread is based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.

What was stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants.

DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.

Define "low." I know kids who are afraid to submit a 1450+.

I agree that's ridiculous. I think that advice not to submit "good" scores not far below range is driven by the idea of the score as a missing data point rather than categorically low. In my opinion, it has always been better to roll the dice and submit the 1450 than to apply test optional. Sure, the student with the 1450 may not get in, but better to demonstrate a standardized metric that's close to the 25th percentile for enrolled students in pre-test-optional times than to leave them wondering. Shows preparedness, as the Yale AO said.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay. And some may go Test Blind. AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs. T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select. IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score. That Time is gone and not likely to return. It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life. I'm okay with that

The "coveted spots" may be at schools that turn to "test recommended." In contrast, it is likely that less-selective schools (say, ranked 30-60s) will have to stay completely test optional, even though those schools are still desirable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay. And some may go Test Blind. AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs. T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select. IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score. That Time is gone and not likely to return. It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life. I'm okay with that

The "coveted spots" may be at schools that turn to "test recommended." In contrast, it is likely that less-selective schools (say, ranked 30-60s) will have to stay completely test optional, even though those schools are still desirable.

Why would the 30-60 have to stay completely test optional?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission.

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that. This thread is based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.

What was stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants.

DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.

+1

New TO study of 50 institutions from Brown https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai23-843.pdf:

Students who withheld scores were 35% more likely (0.278 vs. 0.206) to earn a FYGPA less than 3.0 and 38% more likely to earn less than a 2.5. Lower FYGPAs, in addition to signaling weaker academic performance, can put students at risk of losing scholarships and financial aid. We also find differences in the frequencies that enrolled students fail to exceed two common thresholds for academic progress, 30 and 24 completed credits during the first year of college. The credit accumulation differences suggest that students who withheld scores are at substantially greater risk of failing to complete 24 credits; setting aside the difference below 24 credits, students who withheld scores are no less likely to complete between 25 and 29 credits. Overall, the differences in average academic performance correspond to the differences in average SAT scores among disclosers and withholders.

Colleges and universities which lack scores may be missing opportunities to provide academic support to students who would benefit from it most. More broadly, test-optional policies may make it difficult for applicants to understand whether their own scores compare favorably to the score distribution for a college’s full enrolled student population, which may lead to outcomes in which even fewer applicants disclose scores over time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay. And some may go Test Blind. AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs. T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select. IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score. That Time is gone and not likely to return. It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life. I'm okay with that

The "coveted spots" may be at schools that turn to "test recommended." In contrast, it is likely that less-selective schools (say, ranked 30-60s) will have to stay completely test optional, even though those schools are still desirable.

Why would the 30-60 have to stay completely test optional?

Demographic trends, the coming enrollment cliff. If top schools are tests-recommended, the trickle down of high scorers will not be sufficient to keep their published score ranges high if they too were to turn to tests recommended. They are more than happy to accept the high GPA/test optional kid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission.

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that. This thread is based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.

What was stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants.

DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.

+1

New TO study of 50 institutions from Brown https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai23-843.pdf:

Students who withheld scores were 35% more likely (0.278 vs. 0.206) to earn a FYGPA less than 3.0 and 38% more likely to earn less than a 2.5. Lower FYGPAs, in addition to signaling weaker academic performance, can put students at risk of losing scholarships and financial aid. We also find differences in the frequencies that enrolled students fail to exceed two common thresholds for academic progress, 30 and 24 completed credits during the first year of college. The credit accumulation differences suggest that students who withheld scores are at substantially greater risk of failing to complete 24 credits; setting aside the difference below 24 credits, students who withheld scores are no less likely to complete between 25 and 29 credits. Overall, the differences in average academic performance correspond to the differences in average SAT scores among disclosers and withholders.

Colleges and universities which lack scores may be missing opportunities to provide academic support to students who would benefit from it most. More broadly, test-optional policies may make it difficult for applicants to understand whether their own scores compare favorably to the score distribution for a college’s full enrolled student population, which may lead to outcomes in which even fewer applicants disclose scores over time.

The study used class of 2021 data. Back then, some portion of non-submitters had difficulty accessing the test due to covid. Perhaps that portion was small, but it will be interesting to see data for classes of 2022 and 2023 when it becomes available. The differences between submitter and non-submitter FYGPA may be even larger.

[Anonymous]

I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been said. So many people believe that standardized tests benefit the advantaged because they can pay for prep and generally have better educations. What they fail to overlook is that these tests, despite revisions, were created by privileged classes, who devised tests based on their own cultural upbringing, perceptions, understandings, etc. It is not an intelligence test (even those were largely developed by white, educated elite, so you have to question). Don't forget, the majority of the original SAT takers went to Yale and the rest to other elite colleges. It is an elitist test that does not best predict the likelihood of success in college or in life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been said. So many people believe that standardized tests benefit the advantaged because they can pay for prep and generally have better educations. What they fail to overlook is that these tests, despite revisions, were created by privileged classes, who devised tests based on their own cultural upbringing, perceptions, understandings, etc. It is not an intelligence test (even those were largely developed by white, educated elite, so you have to question). Don't forget, the majority of the original SAT takers went to Yale and the rest to other elite colleges. It is an elitist test that does not best predict the likelihood of success in college or in life.

I don’t disagree with your primary point but as to the subject of this thread, Dartmouth and Yale both found that this test actually does best predict the likelihood of success in college as defined by academics. Further, they seem to being saying that submitting test scores, for their institutions who review in context, is better for students from underresourced backgrounds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator.

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd



https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.

Where is the credible research there? A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position. If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking. Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors
of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds.

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay. And some may go Test Blind. AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs. T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select. IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score. That Time is gone and not likely to return. It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life. I'm okay with that

The "coveted spots" may be at schools that turn to "test recommended." In contrast, it is likely that less-selective schools (say, ranked 30-60s) will have to stay completely test optional, even though those schools are still desirable.

Why would the 30-60 have to stay completely test optional?

Demographic trends, the coming enrollment cliff. If top schools are tests-recommended, the trickle down of high scorers will not be sufficient to keep their published score ranges high if they too were to turn to tests recommended. They are more than happy to accept the high GPA/test optional kid.

100% agree.

Esp true for full pay kids…. gravitating to the schools in the 30 to 60 range.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have not read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has been said. So many people believe that standardized tests benefit the advantaged because they can pay for prep and generally have better educations. What they fail to overlook is that these tests, despite revisions, were created by privileged classes, who devised tests based on their own cultural upbringing, perceptions, understandings, etc. It is not an intelligence test (even those were largely developed by white, educated elite, so you have to question). Don't forget, the majority of the original SAT takers went to Yale and the rest to other elite colleges. It is an elitist test that does not best predict the likelihood of success in college or in life.

But does it predict success at highly selective colleges (and eventual high income/donations)? I think it does/will.
What all the schools want from their alumni anyway….
Think of the long game people.