Reply to SAT/ACT single most predictive factor at Yale

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator. [/quote]

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd

https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.
[/quote]

Where is the credible research there?  A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position.  If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking.  Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.[/quote]

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools[/quote]

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds. [/quote]

Dartmouth and Yale seem to be saying that TO does NOT help those from less advantaged backgrounds because they are going TO when below 25th percentile, even though their still strong score in context would actually better help support their admission. [/quote]

Dartmouth and Yale didn't say that.  This thread is  based on OP'S opinion / impression:

"My impression is that Yale and Dartmouth really want scores, especially students coming from underresourced backgrounds..."

[b]OP also "predicted" that Dartmouth and Yale would go back to requiring standardized testing. That's far from that actually happening.
[/b]
What [b]was[/b] stated by one of the AOs is that Test Optional is here to stay.[/quote]

Darmouth Admssions Dean has said they're moving to "test aware" which means they can make assumptions about TO applicants. [/quote]
DP. The assumption that the scores were low is simple logic and has been warranted all along for TO applicants in the past two cycles. It's about time they said it out loud.[/quote]

New TO study of 50 institutions from Brown [url]https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai23-843.pdf[/url]:

[quote][b]Students who withheld scores were 35% more likely (0.278 vs. 0.206) to earn a FYGPA less than 3.0 and 38% more likely to earn less than a 2.5.[/b] Lower FYGPAs, in addition to signaling weaker academic performance, can put students at risk of losing scholarships and financial aid. We also find differences in the frequencies that enrolled students fail to exceed two common thresholds for academic progress, 30 and 24 completed credits during the first year of college. [b]The credit accumulation differences suggest that students who withheld scores are at substantially greater risk of failing to complete 24 credits[/b]; setting aside the difference below 24 credits, students who withheld scores are no less likely to complete between 25 and 29 credits. Overall, the differences in average academic performance correspond to the differences in average SAT scores among disclosers and withholders.

Colleges and universities which lack scores may be missing opportunities to provide academic support to students who would benefit from it most. More broadly, test-optional policies may make it difficult for applicants to understand whether their own scores compare favorably to the score distribution for a college’s full enrolled student population, [b]which may lead to outcomes in which even fewer applicants disclose scores over time[/b].[/quote]

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