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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]More evidence says high school performance is the strongest indicator. [/quote]

Agree - very credible research suggests GPA is x5 times more important than test scores in predicting future college success.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/01/29/its-gpas-not-standardized-tests-that-predict-college-success/?sh=4bcafc9932bd

https://weilcollegeadvising.com/what-actually-predicts-college-success/#:~:text=In%20nearly%20all%20the%20research,a%20student's%20high%20school%20GPA.
[/quote]

Where is the credible research there?  A Forbes puff piece with no link to an actual report or data or an opinion price from “weilcollegeadvising.com”?

Contrast this to the UC regents report (very carefully researched, using millions of student records) and all of the research coming from Kuncel and Sackett from UMN using data from millions of students across many schools.

The reality is the people saying that standardized test scores should be considered are the moderate/compromise position.  If people were arguing that only test scores should count and we should ignore HS GPA despite ample evidence that it predicts college success people would think you were insane; that’s essentially the same position the “eliminate standardized testing” people are taking.  Most rational people know that standardized testing isn’t the whole picture, but can add a very valuable data point in assessing college readiness.[/quote]

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores

Research Finds that High School GPAs Are Stronger Predictors of College Graduation than ACT Scores
WASHINGTON, D.C., January 28, 2020—

Students’ high school grade point averages are five times stronger than their ACT scores at predicting college graduation, according to a new study published today in Educational Researcher, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Educational Research Association.

The authors of the new study, Elaine M. Allensworth and Kallie Clark, both of the University of Chicago, also found that the predictive power of GPAs is consistent across high schools. The relationship between ACT scores and college graduation depends on which high school a student attends; at many high schools there is no connection between students’ ACT scores and eventual college graduation.

“It was surprising not only to see that there was no relationship between ACT scores and college graduation at some high schools, but also to see that at many high schools the relationship was negative among students with the highest test scores,” said Allensworth, who is the director of the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.

https://www.aera.net/Newsroom/High-School-GPAs-and-ACT-Scores-as-Predictors-of-College-Completion-Examining-Assumptions-about-Consistency-across-High-Schools[/quote]

Our older DC blew test scores out of the park and they had very strong GPA in rigorous course load. The latter was way more important.

I am fine with test optional. I think high test scores is way easier to obtain than earning high GPAs for difficult classes over four years. It also helps students from less advantaged backgrounds. [/quote]

Bingo--this is why TO is here to stay.  And some may go Test Blind.   AO know how to determine rigor and typical GPAs for various HSs.  T25 schools are not having any issues with the students they select.  IT's just the parents who somehow think their snowflake is entitled to an "elite/T25" education just because they have a higher test score.  That Time is gone and not likely to return.  It's okay, your snowflake will be fine wherever they go if they are truly that smart. And yes, there is a slight chance some student from a less advantaged background will get that coveted spot  For that kid it will likely make a huge difference in their life.  I'm okay with that[/quote]
The "coveted spots" may be at schools that turn to "test recommended." In contrast, it is likely that less-selective schools (say, ranked 30-60s) will have to stay completely test optional, even though those schools are still desirable.[/quote] Why would the 30-60 have to stay completely test optional?[/quote]
Demographic trends, the coming enrollment cliff. If top schools are tests-recommended, the trickle down of high scorers will not be sufficient to keep their published score ranges high if they too were to turn to tests recommended. They are more than happy to accept the high GPA/test optional kid.[/quote]

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