When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

No. The sort of thing you are talking about would require seismic shifts in population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Obviously we're seeing the impact of covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

Then why is the loss only seen at TJ? Why didn't we see losses in the rest of FCPS?
Why didn't we see this "learning loss" in 2023 and 2022 and 2021?

The kids at TJ are often very dependent on outside enrichment which likely also came to a standstill during the pandemic. It disrupted them more than others.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Obviously we're seeing the impact of covid.

The effects of Covid are just hitting now? Why not in 2023, 2022 or 2021? Why is this the first year we are seeing this sort of drop? Is it some sort of delayed response?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

Then why is the loss only seen at TJ? Why didn't we see losses in the rest of FCPS?
Why didn't we see this "learning loss" in 2023 and 2022 and 2021?

The kids at TJ are often very dependent on outside enrichment which likely also came to a standstill during the pandemic. It disrupted them more than others.

But somehow the pandemic didn't affect the kids in the classes of 2024 and 2023?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

Then why is the loss only seen at TJ? Why didn't we see losses in the rest of FCPS?
Why didn't we see this "learning loss" in 2023 and 2022 and 2021?

The kids at TJ are often very dependent on outside enrichment which likely also came to a standstill during the pandemic. It disrupted them more than others.

Zoom was available and AFAICT the enrichment classes went on without a hiccup, but let's say that the TJ kids don't have computers at home or something; it still doesn't explain why the TJ kids from the class of 2023, 2022 and 2021 didn't have the same or similar drop from this disruption in outside enrichment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

A third of them? And suddenly? This seems unlikely. Especially because the other counties next door didn't do well -- Loudoun dropped in half/ returned to baseline (see earlier suspicions), and to our south, Prince William's numbers remain very small.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

A third of them? And suddenly? This seems unlikely. Especially because the other counties next door didn't do well -- Loudoun dropped in half/ returned to baseline (see earlier suspicions), and to our south, Prince William's numbers remain very small.

There have been articles about the coming budget woes in Richmond because of the departure of high
SES families in Nova. You think that admissions changes are the explanation in Fairfax, Loudoun, etc. rather than population changes?

Moving to another states between 8th and 9th grade is the best, when you have a choice. So now there are missing high scoring 11th graders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

A third of them? And suddenly? This seems unlikely. Especially because the other counties next door didn't do well -- Loudoun dropped in half/ returned to baseline (see earlier suspicions), and to our south, Prince William's numbers remain very small.

There have been articles about the coming budget woes in Richmond because of the departure of high
SES families in Nova. You think that admissions changes are the explanation in Fairfax, Loudoun, etc. rather than population changes?

Moving to another states between 8th and 9th grade is the best, when you have a choice. So now there are missing high scoring 11th graders.

Yeah except FCPS PSAT averages were largely unchanged across the county except at TJ. Wierd that the brain drain only happened at one school specifically on the first year of a new admissions system that removed standardized testing.

NMSF numbers at most schools were largely unchanged.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/25/1223230.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

TJ dropped a lot. The rest of FCPS combined increased. TJ was carrying the county and when they kneecapped Tj, they kneecapped the county.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

Does anyone remember the stories about how expensive housing is here? Do we think that's because everyone is moving out.
The number of students has increased year over year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

TJ dropped a lot. The rest of FCPS combined increased. TJ was carrying the county and when they kneecapped Tj, they kneecapped the county.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

Does anyone remember the stories about how expensive housing is here? Do we think that's because everyone is moving out.
The number of students has increased year over year.

What’s the breakdown by HS?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

TJ dropped a lot. The rest of FCPS combined increased. TJ was carrying the county and when they kneecapped Tj, they kneecapped the county.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

Does anyone remember the stories about how expensive housing is here? Do we think that's because everyone is moving out.
The number of students has increased year over year.

What’s the breakdown by HS?

Here is it broken down by high school.

https://www.fcps.edu/news/264-fcps-students-named-2024-national-merit-semifinalists

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

I don’t know - that’s why the data would be helpful.

It’s a tiny % of much larger numbers and very slight changes could affect where the kids end up relative to others.

No one has shared that data yet.

Again, slight changes are not going to cause these huge shifts in FCPS performance relative to the rest of Virginia.

Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2023-2024: 15,283, out of whom 504 are in TJ.
Number of FCPS Juniors in October of 2022-2023: 14,915, out of whom 441 are in TJ.

See https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu for further details.

The total number of NMSF in FCPS dropped. TJ really is a red herring - the change happened somewhere else. It just showed up a bit more visibly in the TJ numbers.

TJ dropped a lot. The rest of FCPS combined increased. TJ was carrying the county and when they kneecapped Tj, they kneecapped the county.

Does anyone remember the stories of families leaving Fairfax during the pandemic? The overall population of Nova, particularly Fairfax county, has dropped from 2019. And it was mostly the high-earners who are leaving.

Does anyone remember the stories about how expensive housing is here? Do we think that's because everyone is moving out.
The number of students has increased year over year.

What’s the breakdown by HS?

Here is it broken down by high school.

https://www.fcps.edu/news/264-fcps-students-named-2024-national-merit-semifinalists

And the breakdown for this year

https://www.fcps.edu/news/191-fcps-students-named-2025-national-merit-semifinalists