2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?

I don't think so. GA Republicans are divided between the Trump MAGAs and traditional conservatives. The traditional conservatives support Kemp and Raffensperger and have shown great support for them throughout the last two years and their ongoing battle against Trump. So, not all of the traditional conservatives are going to come out in a runoff to support the trump-backed and very defective candidate Walker. On the flip side the Democratic supporters for Warnock are going to be out in force. They are voters who are against the minority vote suppression and for women and minority rights, which Warnock champions. So the Warnock voters will be as devoted as they were all along, but the Walker voters will be diluted in a runoff. Many of them came out to vote for Kemp and Raffensperger and voted for Walker, but will not come out just to support Walker. Walker has lost a lot of coattail voters.

I tend to agree with this. Also, I wonder what’s the best way to convince D voters of the very real difference between a 50-50 + Harris majority and a real 51-49 majority.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?

It didn't in 2020/2021, why would it this year? Also, no Brian Kemp on the ballot to drive up R turnout.

True, and that was when there were two relatively reasonable Rs on the ballot, right? (I use the word "relatively" lightly.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?

It didn't in 2020/2021, why would it this year? Also, no Brian Kemp on the ballot to drive up R turnout.

2020 it was 50-49 R going into the runoff so that race literally decided control of the Senate. If AZ and NV both remain blue, that won't be the case (because of the PA flip). But, if Senate control is already a done deal, runoff turnout is going to be low anyhow and will probably depress Walker turnout far more.

In 2020, it was 50-48 R going into the runoff. Remember that Ossoff-Perdue was also in the same runoff as Warnock-Loeffler. So, both GA seats were up for grabs. If the Republicans won either of those seats, they would have retained control of the Senate. But the Democrats won both and took control of the split Senate. Otherwise, I agree with your assessment.

[Anonymous]

Warnock is up to 49.6%. Are the definitely not enough votes left to get to 50%? Do we know what is left in Georgia?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Warnock is up to 49.6%. Are the definitely not enough votes left to get to 50%? Do we know what is left in Georgia?

There are a little over 44K votes remaining. Warnock would need to win over 34K of those votes (about 77%) to avoid the runoff. Statistically possible, but practically impossible, especially in Georgia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warnock is up to 49.6%. Are the definitely not enough votes left to get to 50%? Do we know what is left in Georgia?

There are a little over 44K votes remaining. Warnock would need to win over 34K of those votes (about 77%) to avoid the runoff. Statistically possible, but practically impossible, especially in Georgia.

If they are mail ballots in the Atlanta area, this is certainly possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warnock is up to 49.6%. Are the definitely not enough votes left to get to 50%? Do we know what is left in Georgia?

There are a little over 44K votes remaining. Warnock would need to win over 34K of those votes (about 77%) to avoid the runoff. Statistically possible, but practically impossible, especially in Georgia.

If they are mail ballots in the Atlanta area, this is certainly possible.

They are scattered around the state. According to the MSNBC site (which is where I got the 44K number), there are no counties that are 100% reported as of yet. The likelihood is that Warnock is likely to increase his lead, but not to 50%. He will probably get about 22-26K (50-60%) of the outstanding votes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.

I swear I posted this before I saw this article:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.

I swear I posted this before I saw this article:

It feels like time for a Republicans in disarray! masterthread.

Also - seriously, where do they go from here? The obvious thing is to cultivate the normal Republicans and cut MAGA loose, or try to defang them as much as possible - but can they do that?

[Anonymous]

Is Maricopa county good territory for Kelly?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is Maricopa county good territory for Kelly?

yes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.

I swear I posted this before I saw this article:

It feels like time for a Republicans in disarray! masterthread.

Also - seriously, where do they go from here? The obvious thing is to cultivate the normal Republicans and cut MAGA loose, or try to defang them as much as possible - but can they do that?

They need MAGA to win. 2024 is a great map for them, they have the house, and they’ll be running against Biden. The can stay the course and have a reasonably good shot at Congress and the presidency in two years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.

I swear I posted this before I saw this article:

It feels like time for a Republicans in disarray! masterthread.

Also - seriously, where do they go from here? The obvious thing is to cultivate the normal Republicans and cut MAGA loose, or try to defang them as much as possible - but can they do that?

They need MAGA to win. 2024 is a great map for them, they have the house, and they’ll be running against Biden. The can stay the course and have a reasonably good shot at Congress and the presidency in two years

Which is why Biden must not run again. Time for dynamic, *articulate* new blood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.

I swear I posted this before I saw this article:

It feels like time for a Republicans in disarray! masterthread.

Also - seriously, where do they go from here? The obvious thing is to cultivate the normal Republicans and cut MAGA loose, or try to defang them as much as possible - but can they do that?

They need MAGA to win. 2024 is a great map for them, they have the house, and they’ll be running against Biden. The can stay the course and have a reasonably good shot at Congress and the presidency in two years

Which is why Biden must not run again. Time for dynamic, *articulate* new blood.

Except Biden beat Trump and overperformed in the midterms against MAGA candidates.

I feel like it's time to recognize MAGA as something that hurts Republicans in the polls, it doesn't help them. How many times do they have to lose? Yes the maps are better in the next cycle - but didn't they just learn that voters don't want their lousy MAGA candidates?

[Anonymous]

It looks like some more votes came in in AZ since this morning. Kelly's lead is now over 99k and Hobbs' is nearly 17k. Not sure where these were from. Maricopa is due to report more at 8 eastern.