2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That famed hippie liberal Bill Kristol.

I have been hopeful about the Democrats' chances, but Kristol has an almost perfect record of being wrong. His prediction on election night 2016 that Clinton was winning was the first moment I realized Trump would win.

I don’t read this as a prediction they will win. The record for the party with the WH is really bad. He’s just saying they will do better than that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That famed hippie liberal Bill Kristol.

I have been hopeful about the Democrats' chances, but Kristol has an almost perfect record of being wrong. His prediction on election night 2016 that Clinton was winning was the first moment I realized Trump would win.

I don’t read this as a prediction they will win. The record for the party with the WH is really bad. He’s just saying they will do better than that.

Yes. So his words don't matter at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That famed hippie liberal Bill Kristol.

I have been hopeful about the Democrats' chances, but Kristol has an almost perfect record of being wrong. His prediction on election night 2016 that Clinton was winning was the first moment I realized Trump would win.

I don’t read this as a prediction they will win. The record for the party with the WH is really bad. He’s just saying they will do better than that.

The President’s party usually loses seats in mid-terms because the President had coat tails that won some seats that they can’t hold. That didn’t happen in 2020. Trump actually had coattails in non-urban areas and drove anti-Trump turnout in urban areas. Without Trump on the ballot those are about evenly cancelled out. The seats Republicans are likely to pick up are due to reapportionment and redistricting, not normal midterm dynamics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That famed hippie liberal Bill Kristol.

I have been hopeful about the Democrats' chances, but Kristol has an almost perfect record of being wrong. His prediction on election night 2016 that Clinton was winning was the first moment I realized Trump would win.

I don’t read this as a prediction they will win. The record for the party with the WH is really bad. He’s just saying they will do better than that.

This. The party with the President loses an average of 28 House seats in the President’s first midterm.

[Anonymous]

Super creepy vibes from this guy. I’m sorry, but who wants this socially maladjusted weirdo as Senator?

What a freakshow.

[Anonymous]

Democrat leaning pollster Data for Progress just pulled a 180 and dropped polls on Monday showing Republicans winning in almost every state. Not looking good.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Super creepy vibes from this guy. I’m sorry, but who wants this socially maladjusted weirdo as Senator?

What a freakshow.

Big gun, tiny......

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Democrat leaning pollster Data for Progress just pulled a 180 and dropped polls on Monday showing Republicans winning in almost every state. Not looking good.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Data for Progress polls have been consistently showing more Republican than other polls for this cycle for a couple months. Doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but this isn't some big change for them.

[Anonymous]

I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

Man, I was cocky like you when I voted for Hillary in 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

Man, I was cocky like you when I voted for Hillary in 2016.

It is interesting to see the GOP faith in polls has revived as soon as they show them ahead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

Man, I was cocky like you when I voted for Hillary in 2016.

It is interesting to see the GOP faith in polls has revived as soon as they show them ahead.

That’s because polls have consistently been off in Dems favor since 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

Man, I was cocky like you when I voted for Hillary in 2016.

It is interesting to see the GOP faith in polls has revived as soon as they show them ahead.

That’s because polls have consistently been off in Dems favor since 2016.

Have you thought about how you’ll feel if they’ve overcorrected?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to see the faces of Micheal Moore, Bill Kristol and that Rosenberg guy tomorrow morning.

Man, I was cocky like you when I voted for Hillary in 2016.

It is interesting to see the GOP faith in polls has revived as soon as they show them ahead.

That’s because polls have consistently been off in Dems favor since 2016.

No, that's not true. They were off in Dems favor in 2016 and 2020. They were basically right on in 2018. And they have been off in Rs favor in prior cycles, most notably in 2012.

[Anonymous]

All pollsters try to be more accurate in their final polls because that is what they will be graded on. Before that, they deliver what the person paying for the poll wants, a small win for their candidate to boost fundraising, or a big win to discourage the other side from trying to spend money there.