Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Save your money folks. With more deferments than usual and no international students to fill the coffers, full pay is going to be more and more important.

This.

Agree. It’s all about revenue. I think the colleges are allowing what will be a higher % of 2020 scholarship students to defer and admitting full pay (and OOS for publics) off the waitlist to fill those spots and fill in for the missing international students. The 2021 scholarship students will be screwed. Full pay may be advantaged in 2021, especially if the international students aren’t back.

Maybe. But there will be no fewer slots for the rightful Class of 2021 - there will be fewer slots for deferrals and transfers, as always.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not to freak out any junior parents but my kid who got into their first choice ivy is now insisting on a gap year. School is allowing it but we have to decide soon. I don’t like the gap year idea but kid is being incredibly stubborn. Some of kid’s friends are seriously considering a gap year too. What a mess!

NP here. This is interesting. I had a talk with a mom of two seniors today, and they were thinking about it too, but she said she's leaning toward having them go. She doesn't want them around the house another year, playing video games, and she thinks that it will be hard for them to get jobs, because there are so many older more experienced people now that need jobs. If I may ask,

1) Does your kid have to apply to receive a gap year, or just ask and get it?

2) What would your kid be doing during that year?

Yes students must apply/ask for a gap year. Colleges are under no obligation to grant one to all who ask. Some ask what the students’ plan for the year is when the request is made.

All schools are granting gap year requests - how can you not? As a parent I would be concerned - what are the kids going to do for that year - travel is out. Working? 30 million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance.

I think the million international students at colleges and universities is really the game-changer here. Most are full pay plus extra - so most are wealthy - would you send your child (or send your child back) to a country where COVID 19 is not in control, armed protesters stormed a government building to demand everything be opened up and Donald Trump is president? A big maybe. I have a high school junior so I guess we have to plan for two scenarios - the BEST one - there is an effective treatment and vaccine and the world economy bounces right back and the hostility against China dissipates - then a bulge of college kids heading to school in 2021 which means my son's safety schools might be a reach. In the second scenario, one of the four variables listed is still not resolved and then we need to plan for that chaos.

I think early decision is one strategy we will think about.

Your post makes no sense. You think that people on campuses are rallying against the Chinese? Maybe in your dreams. This thread gets more and more bizarre, and facts be damned, apparently.

Look, there are only going to be so many spots for deferrals and transfers. Period. If you were a President of a college or university, you would know this. They are not broadcasting it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a lot of speculation here and a lot of premature panic. I've said this on another thread, but I don't think there will be a massive amount of deferrals, especially at the selective schools. PPs are correct in that the class of 2020 does have some benefits right now. My senior just got into the absolute dream, big stretch of a school, that we thought DC had a snowball's chance in hell of getting into. So, chalk one up for the class of 2020 - waitlists are moving and lots of kids are getting into reach schools right now. But I think that is NOT a function of 2020s deferring, but rather international students not coming, and families choosing cheaper schools. We are full-pay, OOS at the school DC just got into. International students will NOT be able to come to campus this year (especially new admits) because the consulates are closed and no visas are being issued. Some campuses are not allowing them to be on campus, at least first semester. Schools need to make up for that loss of tuition by admitting OOS kids (selective publics) and full-pay families (publics and privates).

Juniors - I think it's still a big question mark. I wouldn't stress about losing out on the spring season of sports (for recruiting purposes), or fewer ACT/SAT dates. That is going to affect every single Junior in the country, so universities will figure out a way to do admissions under those circumstances. Perhaps more deferrals will make for less spots for class of 2021. But I don't know anyone in my DC's class, or very wide circle of friends in the DMV who are deferring. Nobody wants to sit around for another year doing nothing. They are already not happy about sitting around all summer without jobs and travel. They are all anxious to start college, however that will look.

I have a close friend who teaches at Stanford. She told me they have several plans in place right now, and one of them is to delay the first semester to start in January. There are just so many options and different ideas out there and nobody knows what's going to happen.

BUT - we can all agree that it is okay for Juniors and Seniors alike to be sad about missing spring sports, theater productions, concerts, prom, other festivities, and graduation. They wait a long time to be Juniors and Seniors and they can mourn the loss of those milestones. Together.

Good luck to all of our kids - let's love and support them all!

Congratulations to your DC! And thank you for your dose of sanity.
--Mom of a junior and a sophomore who lost a serious recruiting season trying to go with the flow

Congrats to your kid, but if it's a state school so unlikely it is a highly selective school (top 25). The speculation on DCUM seems to be about kids getting into the top 25 that were waitlisted. I just don't see a lot of movement within the top 25. Families were either given aid, or they have the savings to pay. Say that a school is 10% international, at the top schools that is like 150-200 spots. Let's be honest, at least half of those are going to find a way to come into the US or are already here (boarding school etc). So we are talking about an extra 75-100 spots -- some of which may be able to keep their spots by being online only (PENN is offering this, and I'm sure others are as well).

Where there will likely be space are kids that were going to go to maybe UVA full-pay from Wisconsin or Washington, and now will go to their state schools.

Thanks for the congratulations - and yes, it's a state school, but it's also a selective top 25. Think Berkeley, Michigan, or UCLA. And we do know many seniors who have recently got admission off waitlists at top 25 schools: 3 at Chicago, 3 at UCLA, 2 at Wash U, and 3 at Michigan. A couple at Barnard too - but I don't know where that falls in rankings.
I'm forgetting a few. DC keeps me informed when friends get off WLs.

Schools are letting OOSs off the WLs because they bring in more money than in-state.

This is just one of the ways the schools will make money. They are not stupid. They are not going to leave half the spots open while your snowflake decides to travel. It is a business, people. Do you people seriously know that little about business?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Save your money folks. With more deferments than usual and no international students to fill the coffers, full pay is going to be more and more important.

This.

Agree. It’s all about revenue. I think the colleges are allowing what will be a higher % of 2020 scholarship students to defer and admitting full pay (and OOS for publics) off the waitlist to fill those spots and fill in for the missing international students. The 2021 scholarship students will be screwed. Full pay may be advantaged in 2021, especially if the international students aren’t back.

Maybe. But there will be no fewer slots for the rightful Class of 2021 - there will be fewer slots for deferrals and transfers, as always.

That may or may not be true. However, I do think that a college that is taking a financial hit would be happy to let a scholarship student defer if they can replace them with a full-pay student for this fall. It's not clear what happens to scholarships for those who choose to defer, but I'm pretty sure some number of kids who defer never show up at all.

[Anonymous]

Any thoughts on how long until international students return? I’d think not until a vaccine and that numbers may be lower if serious global recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not to freak out any junior parents but my kid who got into their first choice ivy is now insisting on a gap year. School is allowing it but we have to decide soon. I don’t like the gap year idea but kid is being incredibly stubborn. Some of kid’s friends are seriously considering a gap year too. What a mess!

NP here. This is interesting. I had a talk with a mom of two seniors today, and they were thinking about it too, but she said she's leaning toward having them go. She doesn't want them around the house another year, playing video games, and she thinks that it will be hard for them to get jobs, because there are so many older more experienced people now that need jobs. If I may ask,

1) Does your kid have to apply to receive a gap year, or just ask and get it?

2) What would your kid be doing during that year?

Yes students must apply/ask for a gap year. Colleges are under no obligation to grant one to all who ask. Some ask what the students’ plan for the year is when the request is made.

All schools are granting gap year requests - how can you not? As a parent I would be concerned - what are the kids going to do for that year - travel is out. Working? 30 million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance.

I think the million international students at colleges and universities is really the game-changer here. Most are full pay plus extra - so most are wealthy - would you send your child (or send your child back) to a country where COVID 19 is not in control, armed protesters stormed a government building to demand everything be opened up and Donald Trump is president? A big maybe. I have a high school junior so I guess we have to plan for two scenarios - the BEST one - there is an effective treatment and vaccine and the world economy bounces right back and the hostility against China dissipates - then a bulge of college kids heading to school in 2021 which means my son's safety schools might be a reach. In the second scenario, one of the four variables listed is still not resolved and then we need to plan for that chaos.

I think early decision is one strategy we will think about.

Your post makes no sense. You think that people on campuses are rallying against the Chinese? Maybe in your dreams. This thread gets more and more bizarre, and facts be damned, apparently.

Look, there are only going to be so many spots for deferrals and transfers. Period. If you were a President of a college or university, you would know this. They are not broadcasting it.

I don't think there are people "rallying" against Chinese students, but I do know that the amount of $$ the Chinese and other governments direct toward our colleges and professors was undergoing increased scrutiny, even before COVID. I'm surprised this isn't getting more attention, but maybe the pandemic just has everyone distracted. A Harvard professor was arrested for taking money from the Chinese government to open a lab there (in Wuhan, no less), and not disclosing it. The Administration is starting to enforce the law that requires colleges to report their donations from foreign countries, one which they'd been ignoring. It's billions of dollars. The pressure to stop taking this $$ will only build, and make the international student situation, and the colleges' finances, even more complicated.

According to U.S. News & WR:

For example, from January 2012 to June 2018, 15 colleges and universities reported receiving $15.5 million from Hanban, the headquarters of Confucius Institutes, which are schools and programs funded by the Chinese government that commonly teach language and culture but are controlled by high-ranking officials in Beijing and widely considered a propaganda machine.But when Senate investigators requested financial records from 100 U.S. schools, it found that Hanban had actually contributed $113 million to U.S. schools during that time period – more than seven times the amount originally reported.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-02-13/colleges-and-universities-fail-to-report-billions-from-china-qatar-saudi-arabia-and-others

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/13/805548681/harvard-yale-targets-of-education-department-probe-into-foreign-donations

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/14/806128410/harvard-professors-arrest-raises-questions-about-scientific-openness

[Anonymous]

How are the deferral parents/kids going to feel if everyone is back on campus in the fall like normal and they’re missing out? It’s way too early to make an accurate prediction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Any thoughts on how long until international students return? I’d think not until a vaccine and that numbers may be lower if serious global recession.

I think the course of the infection and heaps more data will be available in a year, so I'm not sure the vaccine will make a difference (mainly because I'm skeptical that a successful vaccine is likely in the next year), though treatments may, as research proceeds apace for treatments that prevent cell entry, i.e. affect interaction with the human cell rather than kill the virus directly.

Recession is the key that may keep internationals (and full pay domestic students) away; that is the big question mark. Just a guess, but I doubt internationals who can still afford to pay in spite of the recession will give up spots at highly selective US universities, even if they might be required to defer a year for travel/visa reasons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How are the deferral parents/kids going to feel if everyone is back on campus in the fall like normal and they’re missing out? It’s way too early to make an accurate prediction.

This. I don't want my dc sitting at home all year with the family while his classmates all have their freshman year, albeit with masks and fewer crowded events. Gap year just means sitting at home vegging. Will do if we have to, but really hope there's a better option.

[Anonymous]

The whole world is going to strongly reevaluate their relationships with China, not just the US. Sweden ordered all Confucius Institute chapters at at Swedish universities to shut down.

Let's not be blase about China here. No one wants to punish Chinese people who are just as innocent as anyone else, but the Chinese regime is not trustworthy in any meaningful sense. It may have repercussions for American colleges that relied heavily on Chinese funding/donations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not to freak out any junior parents but my kid who got into their first choice ivy is now insisting on a gap year. School is allowing it but we have to decide soon. I don’t like the gap year idea but kid is being incredibly stubborn. Some of kid’s friends are seriously considering a gap year too. What a mess!

NP here. This is interesting. I had a talk with a mom of two seniors today, and they were thinking about it too, but she said she's leaning toward having them go. She doesn't want them around the house another year, playing video games, and she thinks that it will be hard for them to get jobs, because there are so many older more experienced people now that need jobs. If I may ask,

1) Does your kid have to apply to receive a gap year, or just ask and get it?

2) What would your kid be doing during that year?

Yes students must apply/ask for a gap year. Colleges are under no obligation to grant one to all who ask. Some ask what the students’ plan for the year is when the request is made.

All schools are granting gap year requests - how can you not? As a parent I would be concerned - what are the kids going to do for that year - travel is out. Working? 30 million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance.

I think the million international students at colleges and universities is really the game-changer here. Most are full pay plus extra - so most are wealthy - would you send your child (or send your child back) to a country where COVID 19 is not in control, armed protesters stormed a government building to demand everything be opened up and Donald Trump is president? A big maybe. I have a high school junior so I guess we have to plan for two scenarios - the BEST one - there is an effective treatment and vaccine and the world economy bounces right back and the hostility against China dissipates - then a bulge of college kids heading to school in 2021 which means my son's safety schools might be a reach. In the second scenario, one of the four variables listed is still not resolved and then we need to plan for that chaos.

I think early decision is one strategy we will think about.

Your post makes no sense. You think that people on campuses are rallying against the Chinese? Maybe in your dreams. This thread gets more and more bizarre, and facts be damned, apparently.

Look, there are only going to be so many spots for deferrals and transfers. Period. If you were a President of a college or university, you would know this. They are not broadcasting it.

I don't think there are people "rallying" against Chinese students, but I do know that the amount of $$ the Chinese and other governments direct toward our colleges and professors was undergoing increased scrutiny, even before COVID. I'm surprised this isn't getting more attention, but maybe the pandemic just has everyone distracted. A Harvard professor was arrested for taking money from the Chinese government to open a lab there (in Wuhan, no less), and not disclosing it. The Administration is starting to enforce the law that requires colleges to report their donations from foreign countries, one which they'd been ignoring. It's billions of dollars. The pressure to stop taking this $$ will only build, and make the international student situation, and the colleges' finances, even more complicated.

According to U.S. News & WR:

For example, from January 2012 to June 2018, 15 colleges and universities reported receiving $15.5 million from Hanban, the headquarters of Confucius Institutes, which are schools and programs funded by the Chinese government that commonly teach language and culture but are controlled by high-ranking officials in Beijing and widely considered a propaganda machine.But when Senate investigators requested financial records from 100 U.S. schools, it found that Hanban had actually contributed $113 million to U.S. schools during that time period – more than seven times the amount originally reported.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-02-13/colleges-and-universities-fail-to-report-billions-from-china-qatar-saudi-arabia-and-others

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/13/805548681/harvard-yale-targets-of-education-department-probe-into-foreign-donations

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/14/806128410/harvard-professors-arrest-raises-questions-about-scientific-openness

Thanks for posting this - the Ivy League never fails to disappoint. So corrupt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not to freak out any junior parents but my kid who got into their first choice ivy is now insisting on a gap year. School is allowing it but we have to decide soon. I don’t like the gap year idea but kid is being incredibly stubborn. Some of kid’s friends are seriously considering a gap year too. What a mess!

NP here. This is interesting. I had a talk with a mom of two seniors today, and they were thinking about it too, but she said she's leaning toward having them go. She doesn't want them around the house another year, playing video games, and she thinks that it will be hard for them to get jobs, because there are so many older more experienced people now that need jobs. If I may ask,

1) Does your kid have to apply to receive a gap year, or just ask and get it?

2) What would your kid be doing during that year?

Yes students must apply/ask for a gap year. Colleges are under no obligation to grant one to all who ask. Some ask what the students’ plan for the year is when the request is made.

All schools are granting gap year requests - how can you not? As a parent I would be concerned - what are the kids going to do for that year - travel is out. Working? 30 million Americans have applied for unemployment insurance.

I think the million international students at colleges and universities is really the game-changer here. Most are full pay plus extra - so most are wealthy - would you send your child (or send your child back) to a country where COVID 19 is not in control, armed protesters stormed a government building to demand everything be opened up and Donald Trump is president? A big maybe. I have a high school junior so I guess we have to plan for two scenarios - the BEST one - there is an effective treatment and vaccine and the world economy bounces right back and the hostility against China dissipates - then a bulge of college kids heading to school in 2021 which means my son's safety schools might be a reach. In the second scenario, one of the four variables listed is still not resolved and then we need to plan for that chaos.

I think early decision is one strategy we will think about.

Your post makes no sense. You think that people on campuses are rallying against the Chinese? Maybe in your dreams. This thread gets more and more bizarre, and facts be damned, apparently.

Look, there are only going to be so many spots for deferrals and transfers. Period. If you were a President of a college or university, you would know this. They are not broadcasting it.

I don't think there are people "rallying" against Chinese students, but I do know that the amount of $$ the Chinese and other governments direct toward our colleges and professors was undergoing increased scrutiny, even before COVID. I'm surprised this isn't getting more attention, but maybe the pandemic just has everyone distracted. A Harvard professor was arrested for taking money from the Chinese government to open a lab there (in Wuhan, no less), and not disclosing it. The Administration is starting to enforce the law that requires colleges to report their donations from foreign countries, one which they'd been ignoring. It's billions of dollars. The pressure to stop taking this $$ will only build, and make the international student situation, and the colleges' finances, even more complicated.

According to U.S. News & WR:

For example, from January 2012 to June 2018, 15 colleges and universities reported receiving $15.5 million from Hanban, the headquarters of Confucius Institutes, which are schools and programs funded by the Chinese government that commonly teach language and culture but are controlled by high-ranking officials in Beijing and widely considered a propaganda machine.But when Senate investigators requested financial records from 100 U.S. schools, it found that Hanban had actually contributed $113 million to U.S. schools during that time period – more than seven times the amount originally reported.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-02-13/colleges-and-universities-fail-to-report-billions-from-china-qatar-saudi-arabia-and-others

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/13/805548681/harvard-yale-targets-of-education-department-probe-into-foreign-donations

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/14/806128410/harvard-professors-arrest-raises-questions-about-scientific-openness

I had no idea about this!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That's why student who want to defer should not be allowed to do so. They should have to reapply next year.

Yes because they haven't been screwed over enough this year.

Other than missing graduation (which is boring AF anyway), how have they been more "screwed over" than the class of 2021? I would argue the juniors have it even worse. Many fewer times for testing. Missing out on the most important semester for grades into their transript--and now the 2020 class taking away possibly up to 20% of possible spots for top colleges next year.

I have three teenagers. One in college, one senior, and one sophomore. By far the worst hit is the senior, no comparison. They miss everything related to the end of school, including saying goodbye to their friends. Yes, my Sophomore missed her spring sport which she was trying to be recruited and has to take two on-line AP Exams. It is not a win for anyone but the enormity of disappointment is overwhelming for my senior. If she loses her summer job that will be a huge hit. Her college has not announced that what they will do in Fall BUT they did tell her that if it is on-line, she will be able to defer. That is not normally an option. I feel bad for the next two years of students applying to colleges, especially the juniors because unfortunately I do think they will be the toughest admissions class in quite a long time. So that sucks for them, but there are still plenty of options. They will probably have a more mature outlook on life in the whole process because they have now lived through "anything can happen". However, no class has it worse than the senior class of 2020. I am sad for them and all teenagers but we will get through it.

Nope. The 2020 class can have some sentimentality over it, but the 2021 class is completely screwed by all the 2020 Mommies who are too scared to sent their kids and too weak to just say to them: It's not what you planned, tough luck. Imagine fi you did that, then your senior could have "a more mature outlook on life..." just like you expect from the 2021s. This thread makes me so upset, because it never occurred to me that the class of 2020 is going to so completely screw my junior. What a mess.

+1

Class of 2020 moms can sit down and shut up. Their child got into college. I don't want to hear how important mom thinks it is for their kid to walk across the stage. Your kid doesn't care half as much as you!

For those of you who think they can make "multiple deposits" or whatever. That is not how it works. Nice try.

BS, my kid and every other kid cares about the end of the year celebrations as seniors. What the juniors don't care about is mommy wanted them to go to an Ivy and now they are pouting that they are afraid they are robbed of the chance. Yea right, Boohoo, they cannot do some campus visits, you are comparing that to graduation? It's the junior parents that are projecting -- guess what, your kid didn't want to take SATs 4 times to finally break 1400. Super scores will be lower, less pressure on juniors. Nothing like what has been taken away from the seniors.

Who said anything about taking the SAT four times? Is that how many times you had to take it? And that is somehow our problem? No. No, it's not.

Who said anything about an Ivy school? Your kid is IN college. Be grateful.

Here's an idea - stay in your lane. In the meantime, the rituals that you want to Instagram can be staged in your living room. The major exams and other academics (!!!!) the juniors have to miss out on (NOT RITUALS) can not. Go monogram something, or read Greek Life so your snowflake can get into your "perfect" sorority.

Here is an idea- stop being a jerk.

Take a deep breath junior parents. All juniors are having the same experience. Your child will be compared against others for SAT/ACT and GPA. And sports, which seems to be the major concern here (also, remember that the lack of sports might mean your kid ends up at the best school academically). No one knows what the senior year will look like for the class of 2021 - stressing your kids out about it is not going to help.

Also, they are called milestones, not rituals. Have a glass wine or do some yoga - sounds like you need it.

No one is stressing their kid out except the parents who insist on the ritualistic stuff, that won't matter in six months.

Maybe in your world the parents rely on "4 SATs" or sports, which you have cited, but not in my world.

And the academics are not fair, because everyone is getting a boost, but the smart kids. How on earth it that fair? Hint: it is not.

Do you know whether that's happening? Hopefully teachers won't do that. They have an increased role to play to separate out the A students from B students. Colleges will rely more on HS transcript.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Save your money folks. With more deferments than usual and no international students to fill the coffers, full pay is going to be more and more important.

This.

Agree. It’s all about revenue. I think the colleges are allowing what will be a higher % of 2020 scholarship students to defer and admitting full pay (and OOS for publics) off the waitlist to fill those spots and fill in for the missing international students. The 2021 scholarship students will be screwed. Full pay may be advantaged in 2021, especially if the international students aren’t back.

Maybe. But there will be no fewer slots for the rightful Class of 2021 - there will be fewer slots for deferrals and transfers, as always.

That may or may not be true. However, I do think that a college that is taking a financial hit would be happy to let a scholarship student defer if they can replace them with a full-pay student for this fall. It's not clear what happens to scholarships for those who choose to defer, but I'm pretty sure some number of kids who defer never show up at all.

Let’s just say the colleges bank on the deferrals not showing up and leave it at that because y’all are dense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parent of junior here. Yes your stupid parties are way more important than my kids education. Class of 2020 get.over.yourself.

Senior parent here and i am squarely on team junior here. This is harder for juniors. As far as messing with progress...I would argue young elementary and then HS juniors have the greatest challenges here. Stay tough juniors. Like everything, you will get out of this what you put in so try to find ways to fill in the gaps as best you can.